2018 Grand National Ultimate Betting Guide | Stats, Facts, Trends & Odds

  • 12th April 2018
2018 Grand National Ultimate Betting Guide Stats, Facts, Trends & Odds

In this 2018 Grand National ultimate betting guide, Ben Levene (@benlevene96) takes us through stats, facts and trends, where to place your bets on this year’s race as well as details on each individual runner including odds.

2018 Grand National Ultimate Betting Guide

Date: 14/04/18

Time: 17:15

Venue: Aintree Racecourse

Channel: ITV

The Grand National is the most watched event in the Horse Racing calendar. 40 horses will line up at the post on Saturday, about to embark on a run over 4m 2f 74y. Entrants to this race must be aged 7 or older and are allocated weights according to ratings given by the BHA. Last year’s winner, One For Arthur, was the first winner in the last five-years to go off at less than 25/1.

What Will It Take To Win?

It goes without saying, this is by no means an easy race to win and that’s reflected in the prices. As of writing this, Anibale Fly is the 11/1 favorite, implying an 8.3% chance of winning the race.

Looking at horses that are proven stayers is probably the best starting point. Every winner since 1970 has won over at least 3 miles. That’s 26 of the last 27. The 4m 1/4f trip is tough, and so looking at bare form is not wise. Simply winning is not the best barometer. Just five of the last 27 winners won last time out.

Weight also has to be a factor considered. 21 of the last 27 winners of the race carried 10-12 or less. Similarly, 31 of the last 33 winners had run in the last 50-days, so completely fresh horses don’t tend to run well.

While they don’t tell the whole picture, we’d be foolish to ignore these convincing trends.

Who To Bet With?

In such an open-race, it makes sense to take advantage of the each-way part of our bets. We’ve put together a handy guide on how many places each online bookmaker is paying and also created a list of bookmakers going non runner no bet at this year’s big race.

Expect to see a wider variety of enhanced place terms floating around on the day.

Runner-By-Runner Guide

Minella Rocco (20/1)

  • Weight: 11-10
  • Age: 8
  • This former Gold Cup Runner-Up has run just the once over 4m and on that occasion beat this year’s Gold Cup winner Native River. A horse with great ability and a serious engine, but it’s worth noting he’s failed to finish 5 of 13 since he’s gone chasing. Has since had wind surgery and carries top weight here

Blacklion (12/1)

  • Weight: 11-9
  • Age: 9
  • 4th in this race last year when 8lb lighter. Proven stayer and is comfortable on poor ground. In fact, all 4 chase wins have come on soft or heavy.

The Last Samuri (18/1)

  • Weight:11-7
  • Age: 10
  • This Kim Bailey 10-year-old will no doubt prove popular amongst punters. He came 2nd in this race two-years-ago when 8/1 favorite. 16th when top weight last year. 3lb lighter this time around and has once again proved his staying ability over the last 12-months. Last time out was a respectable 3rd in the Cross-Country at Cheltenham. Prior to that was 9 lengths behind Blaklion over 3m1f at Aintree when giving 6lb. Is 7lb better off this time around.

Anibale Fly (11/1)

  • Weight: 11-7
  • Age: 8
  • Respectable 3rd in the Gold Cup last month but is untested over 4m. Did stay on however. In December beat Ucello Conti, who was 20/1 for last year’s Grand National, by 7l over 3m when giving 10lb.

Valseur Lido (66/1)

  • Weight: 11-6
  • Age: 9
  • Hasn’t run over longer than 3m1/2f. Last two races were over 2m4f and reinforced the idea he’s better over longer. In the last two years has run in five Grade 1 or 2 races, so has good pedigree.

Total Recall (11/1)

  • Weight: 11-4
  • Age: 9
  • Ante-post fav. Fell in last month’s Gold Cup when mid-division. Prior to that looked good over 3m.

Alpha Des Obeaux (40/1)

  • Weight: 11-3
  • Age: 8
  • Interesting 7 lengths behind favorite Total Recall over 3m in October when giving 14lb. 15lb better off in comparison this time around so don’t rule out a reverse in form. 15l behind Road to Respect off level weight and 20l behind Definitely Red when giving 2lb. Finished twice behind Valseur Lido but is 3lb better off this weekend.

Perfect Candidate (80/1)

  • Weight:11-2
  • Age: 11
  • Been chasing for nearly 4 years. Was around 38l behind The Last Samuri over 3m when giving 4lb and is better off in the weights here. Pulled up four out in last year’s Grand National.

Shantou Flyer (40/1)

  • Weight: 11-1
  • Age: 8
  • Ran in this race last year but never really got going and pulled up. Form suggests he performs best on poor ground. Good run when 2nd in the Ultima last month off a big weight.

Tenor Nivernias (150/1)

  • Weight: 11-0
  • Age: 11
  • 17th in last years’ Grand National when 1lb heavier. Has since done very little to suggest he’s ready to better that. 6th over 3m at Ascott after pulling up at Doncaster.

Carlingford Lough (50/1)

  • Weight: 11-0
  • Age: 12
  • 4th in the 2016 Gold Cup. Hasn’t produces his best since 24-months-ago but is capable.

Vicente (40/1)

  • Weight: 10-13
  • Age: 9
  • Fell early-on in this race last year but went on to impressively win the Scottish Grand National off top-weight two-weeks later. Pulled up in the Ultima at Cheltenham last month. Form suggests he’d prefer better ground.

Viex Lion Rouge 33/1

  • Weight: 10-12
  • Age: 9
  • 7th in 2016 and 6th in 2017, so proven he stays the trip. Preparation was better prior to both those runs.

Tiger Roll (12/1)

  • Weight:10-12
  • Age: 8
  • Proved heavily popular in the antepost period. Not a surprise given wins at consecutive Cheltenham festivals. Beat The Last Samuri by 13l over 3m6f off level weight, so has great claims now 9lb better off.

Regal Encore (33/1)

  • Weight: 10-12
  • Age: 10
  • 8th in last year’s Grand National when 10-13. Stayed on over 3m at Ascot in February when 1st by 1.5l giving 12lb to 2nd.

Warriors Tale (50/1)

  • Weight:10-11
  • Age: 9
  • Just a neck behind Gold Present at Newbury over 3m in December. Better off in the weights this time out and did run close when 2nd over 3m at Doncaster. Unproven over 4m.

Seeyouatmidnight (16/1)

  • Weight: 10-11
  • Age: 10
  • 3rd in the Scottish Grand National two-years-ago. Lightly raced since. Ran off a big weight in comeback run at Newbury. Has had wind surgery.

Chase The Spud (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-11
  • Age: 10
  • Won over 4m at Uttoxeter last year but has failed to stay in last two runs. Down in the weights here, so may improve.

The Dutchman (28/1)

  • Weight: 10-10
  • Age: 8
  • Kept on over 3m in victory at Haydock. Struggled over 3m4f at Haydock in February.

Pleasant Company (40/1)

  • Weight: 10-10
  • Age: 10
  • 9th last year when 2lb higher. Went off 11/1 on that occasion although did have Ruby Walsh on board. 35l behind Anibale Fly when gaining a lb last time out. Is 8lb better of here.

Gas Line Boy (33/1)

  • Weight: 10-10
  • Age: 12
  • 5th in this race last year and is rated 3lb higher this time around. Won over 2m5f at Aintree in December when staying on. Followed that with a 3rd over 3m on poor ground at Sandown when giving weight last time out.

Ucello Conti (22/1)

  • Weight: 10-9
  • Age: 10
  • Well backed and went off 20/1 in this race last year. 6th the year prior, however didn’t stay 3m on Heavy ground at Gowran Park in January.

Saints Are (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-9
  • Age: 12
  • Boasts a remarkable Grand National record with finishes of 9-2-3. May prefer better ground as pulled up in both races this season, and the 2016 national when soft.

Beeves (100/1)

  • Weight: 10-9
  • Age: 11
  • Stayed the Cross Country at Cheltenham last month, a feat achieved by less than half the field. But was behind Tiger Roll and The Last Samuri by some distance on the occasion, and there’s little to suggest he can overturn that, even when better off in the weights.

Raz De Maree (33/1)

  • Weight: 10-8
  • Age: 13
  • Gavin Cromwell’s 13-year-old has defied age this season, winning the Welsh Grand National in January. He impressively beat the likes of Alfie Spinner, Final Nudge and Vintage Clouds on that occasion. Proven stayer over 3m, but the extra mile could take its toll.

Virgilio (100/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 9
  • Had wind surgery and is up in trip here. A bit of an Aintree specialist, having run at the course on six different occasions. Uncertainty over distance probably makes a bet difficult to justify.

Pendra (80/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 10
  • Charlie Longsdon’s Pendra failed to improve on his 2017 Kim Muir 2nd, coming 15th in the race this year. Was 13th in the 2016 Grand National and off a low mark can stay the trip.

Maggio (100/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 13
  • Won over 3m at Aintree back in 2016 but hasn’t won or placed in any of the seven-races since.

I Just Know (25/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 8
  • Proved too good over 3m5f at Catterick in January but is up in class here. Stayed on in prep race at Uttoexeter.

Childrens List (80/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 8
  • Beat Edwulf over 3m in December of 2016 so is more than capable. Pulled up on heavy ground over 3m4f at Punchestown in February.

Buywise (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 11
  • 12th in this race in 2016 when 3lb higher but his best may be past him. Won a Class 2 at Sandown in January but Gas Line Boy should be able to reverse that form given the weights.

Baie Des Iles (16/1)

  • Weight: 10-7
  • Age: 7
  • Baie Des Iles will have to defy history here because no runner under the age of eight has won the Grand National in the last 75 years. Form over distance is impressive though. Has run eight times over at least 3m including two wins. Will have to improve big-time from run at Fairyhouse in February 2017 when over 50l behind Pleasant Company.

Lord Windermere (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-6
  • Age: 12
  • 7th last year but has form to reverse against a fair few runners here. More than capable off a generous mark nonetheless.

Houblon Des Obeaux (50/1)

  • Weight:10-6
  • Age: 11
  • 10th last year off 6lb higher so there’s scope for improvement. Pulled up over 4m at Newcastle in February but was running with top weight. Makes an interesting proposition.

Captain Redbeard (25/1)

  • Weight: 10-6
  • Age: 9
  • Heavy ground wouldn’t be a worry given his last five races have been on bottomless, with recent form figures showing 1-2-1. Only run once over 3m or greater however.

Milansbar (33/1)

  • Weight: 10-5
  • Age: 11
  • Five previous runs over 4m which include two places indicates he’s adept over the distance. Won’t mind poor ground either.

Final Nudge (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-5
  • Age: 9
  • Couldn’t back up promise previously shown in run at Cheltenham. Fell four from home in only run over 4m when 2nd so could thrive over the longer distance. 14lb reverse in weights mean he has a chance to get revenge over Raz De Maree whom he was 15l short of over 3m5f at Chepstow.

Double Ross (100/1)

  • Weight: 10-5
  • Age: 12
  • Has never run in a graded race but showed ability when 4th in the Kim Muir last month. Finished 18l ahead of Final Nudge on that occasion and stayed on

Bless The Wings (66/1)

  • Weight: 10-5
  • Age: 13
  • Gordon Elliot’s Cross-Country expert returns to Aintree three-years after a 9th in the Grand National. After 29-consecutive finishes, he’s failed to finish four of his last five races which is a worry. Would probably prefer better ground.

Road To Riches (80/1)

  • Weight: 10-4
  • Age: 11
  • Racing back in England for the first time since 3rd in the Ryanair in 2016. Weight is a big plus, but even then it’s difficult to justify backing.

Three Most Backed

  • Tiger Roll – 12/1
  • Total Recall – 11/1
  • Blacklion – 12/1

Ben’s Picks

  • Alpha Des Obeaux EW – 40/1
  • Houblon Des Obeaux EW – 50/1