2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 10 Betting Preview & Tips

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 10 Betting Preview & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews day ten of the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit and Loss: +8.23pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 10 Betting Preview & Tips

  • Date: 16 March 2019
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Saturday marks day ten at the BNP Paribas Open as we mark the penultimate day in Indian Wells with two mouthwatering semi-finals.

And our solitary pick yesterday landed with much to spare when Karen Khachanov covered the +4.5 game handicap against Rafael Nadal.

In fact, the Russian could probably count himself unfortunate not to at least steal a set from Nadal, eventually bowing out 7-6(2), 7-6(2), after carving a set point for himself in the second set.

Worryingly, Nadal was hampered by an apparent knee injury and his comments after the match – lamenting the number of hard court tournaments on the tour – will put immediately behind the eight ball in his semi-final.

And he meets a familiar foe in the last four, Roger Federer, who breezed past Hubert Hurkacz, 6-4 6-4.

The Verdict

Moving on, however, and it will be the other semi-final on Saturday which piques our interest from a betting perspective.

We landed our first quarter outright of the year when Milos Raonic capitalised on top seed Alexander Zverev’s early exit from the tournament, but he hasn’t been majorly convincing whatsoever this week.

The Canadian’s highest ranked opponent in Indian Wells has been Jan-Lennard Struff who is marooned at world number 55 and it speaks to the peculiarity of the draw that he faced a player outside the top-100 in the quarter-final.

His level of performance has fluctuated throughout and he trailed 4-2 in the deciding set of his third round encounter with the qualifier Marcos Giron before snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.

The slower conditions are largely attributable to his not-at-all convincing displays thus far, but his opponent is even more receptive to the clay-like conditions in the desert.

Dominic Thiem is yet to drop a set this week and he will have plenty of energy left in the tank after profiting from a walkover against Gael Monfils in the last eight.

The Austrian has already tamed one big-server in the round of 16, Ivo Karlovic, for the loss of only seven games and that ought to have given him confidence ahead of his semi-final meeting.

Thiem is available to reach his first Masters 1000 final since the Madrid Open last year at 17/12, which represents very good odds for a player of his calibre.

Meanwhile, Federer are Nadal meet for the 39th time in their careers at around 7:30PM GMT, their first since the final of the Shanghai Masters in 2017.

The Swiss has won their previous five encounters and, more pertinently, he got the better of the Spaniard twice in the Indian Wells/Miami swing just two years ago.

Those were both sealed in straight sets – so too, was the clash in China – and given the question marks surrounding Nadal’s fitness there is definite value on Federer to win 2-0 at 13/10.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.6pts – Dominic Thiem to win – 17/12 (Marathon Bet)
  • 1pt – Roger Federer to win 2-0 – 13/10 (Unibet)