2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 11 Betting Preview & Tips

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 11 Betting Preview & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews day eleven of the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +9.68pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 11 Betting Preview & Tips

  • Date: 17 March 2019
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Sunday marks finals day at the BNP Paribas Open and we are set for a scorching afternoon at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

And we enjoyed another profitable day as Dominic Thiem took care of business before our 2-0 bet on Roger Federer was voided.

The Austrian produced a solid serving performance to seal a place in his first Masters 1000 final on hard court, outlasting our quarter outright Milos Raonic, 7-6(3) 6-7(3) 6-4.

Meanwhile, Federer did not even take to court as Rafael Nadal’s worst fears were realised after Friday’s quarter-final exertions. The Spaniard cited a knee problem – a common occurrence in his hard court toils – which will also rule him out of next week’s Miami Open.

That sets up a meeting between the five-time champion at Indian Wells, Federer, and Thiem, with the pair’s last encounter having come in the round robin stages of the ATP Finals last year.

The Verdict

Federer holds the upper hand in their six career meetings (a 4-2 lead) but three of those meetings came all the way back in 2016.

Thiem does have experience of defeating the Swiss at Masters 1000 level, however, having got the better of him at the Italian Open, although that was a very different version of Federer before he injected new life into his career in 2017.

The Swiss’ record at Indian Wells is remarkable and he will have the added incentive on Sunday of claiming an unprecedented sixth title at the venue.

In fact, 2013 was the last year in which he failed to reach at least the final in California and he could have been approaching Sunday’s final on ten match winning run at Indian Wells alone if he didn’t squander three match points in the final against Juan Martin del Potro twelve months ago.

Instead he’ll have to settle for a nine match winning streak after his triumph in Dubai two weeks ago – his 100th career title in total which will ought to have lifted the burden off his shoulders heading into this week.

His performances so far have been flawless, ousting Stan Wawrinka with consummate ease in the third round after it was flagged as a potential banana skin. And he will surely benefit from the day’s rest afforded to him by Nadal’s withdrawal at the age of 37.

Thiem will hardly be searching for confidence heading into the match and his serving numbers against Raonic for a set and a half yesterday were staggering.

In fact, he committed zero unforced errors in the opening set, but his oft-maligned deficiencies reared its ugly head in the second set tie-break (although he was unfortunate with the net chord at 3-4) and he very nearly gifted the Canadian a break back when he served for the match at 5-4 in the deciding set.

A hare-brained dropshot from the Austrian went unpunished by Raonic and Thiem eventually sealed the deal but it perhaps offered an insight into the nerves of the 25-year-old with his experience at the latter stages of big hard court events limited.

It would be no shame if Thiem were to bow out to Federer considering the Swiss’ envious record at Indian Wells, but he could struggle for rhythm early on with the 20-time major winner fresh off a day’s rest.

Under 9.5 games in set one is the appealing bet of the final at 6/5.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.6pts – Dominic Thiem v Roger Federer – Under 9.5 games in set one – 6/5 (Bet365)
  • 0.7pts – Dominic Thiem v Roger Federer – Tie-Break in Match – No – 5/6 (Bet365)