2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 4 Betting Preview & Tips

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 4 Betting Preview & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews day four of the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit and Loss: +5.6pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 4 Betting Preview & Tips

  • Date: 10 March 2019
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Sunday marks day four at the BNP Paribas Open with cloud set to dominate the day at Indian Wells.

And for the second straight day our main bet landed, with Yoshihito Nishioka not only covering the +3.5 game handicap against Roberto Bautista-Agut but ousting the Spaniard in straight sets, 7-6(3), 6-4.

Bautista-Agut led 4-2 in the second set, but he inexplicably collapse when he lost the next four games to provide us with a 6/5 winner – although there is a tinge of regret for not opting to take the Japanese outright.

Jan-Lennard Struff, however, got off to a slow start against Ricardas Berankis and it cost us our 2-0 bet as the German dropped the opening set before recovering to advance, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Our quarter outright Milos Raonic, meanwhile, cruised past Sam Querrey, 7-6(1), 6-4, although it was hardly the serving clinic many anticipated from the Canadian.

The Verdict

Moving on, however, and the first value pick of the day lies in Mackenzie McDonald’s clash with Daniil Medvedev at around 8:30PM GMT

McDonald scored a great win over Joao Sousa in the opening round on Friday and he quelled a few suspicions that the surface in Indian Wells was not to his liking, with his record on clay very limited.

The American grew up not too far away from Indian Wells and he will garner the majority of crowd support on the densely-packed Stadium 3.

Medvedev, meanwhile, suffered a setback in Dubai last month when he lost in straight sets to Berankis and his performance that day suggests there is still a fallibility to the Russian despite his meteoric rise in the last twelve months.

Not much can be read into his record at Indian Wells considering he is still only 23-years-old but his flat-hitting won’t skid through the court as it usually does on the quicker surfaces and McDonald is strong enough off both wings to make it a contest.

The pair met on quicker conditions in qualifying at the Rogers Cup last year and the scoreline that afternoon slightly flatters the Russian – 7-6(3), 6-4 – considering he trailed by a double break in the first set.

Much like yesterday, it may be too much of an ask to expect the American to go all the way but the conditions in his native California could allow him to keep it close, hence we’ll take McDonald +3.5 games at 6/5.

Elsewhere, Fabio Fognini represents obvious value as a 11/10 underdog against Radu Albot in their contest at around 10PM GMT.

Albot opens as favourite presumably on the basis of his recent form – he won the title in Delray Beach last month – and the Italian’s lack of it.

Fognini has lost his last three matches since he was dumped out the Australian Open in the third round, but he enjoys conditions in Indian Wells and he has tasted success already this week in his doubles win with Novak Djokovic.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.5pts – Mackenzie McDonald +3.5 games – 6/5 (Bet365)
  • 1pt – Fabio Fognini to win – 11/10 (William Hill)