2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 5 Betting Preview & Tips

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 5 Betting Preview & Tips

Tennis specialist Craig Vickers (@craigvickers_) previews day five of the men’s BNP Paribas Open and provides us with his best bets for the first Masters 1000 tournament of the year.

  • 2019 Profit and Loss: +4.1pts

2019 BNP Paribas Open Day 5 Betting Preview & Tips

  • Date: 11 March 2019
  • Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California, United States
  • Channel: Amazon Prime Video/Tennis TV

Monday marks day five at the BNP Paribas Open with cloud expected and rain forecast for late afternoon and into the early evening.

Unfortunately, we endured our first winless day of the tournament yesterday when Radu Albot prolonged Fabio Fognini’s wretched form and Mackenzie McDonald failed to cover the handicap against Daniil Medvedev.

Fognini competed well in the second set but it followed a dismal start to the match in which he was bagelled by the Moldovan, before he was eventually put out of his misery, 6-0, 7-6(4).

McDonald, meanwhile, looked set to cover our +3.5 games handicap when he was edged out of a tight opening set by the Russian, but Medvedev raised his level in the second set and the American did not win a single game, surrendering 7-5, 6-0.

Our quarter outright John Isner spent less than an hour on court in his dismantling of young Alexei Popyrin, 6-0, 6-2, which should serve him well in the next round.

The Verdict

It’s a curious set of matches billed for Monday as third round action begins and it is only natural that value becomes more difficult to determine as the tournament progresses.

And our first pick of the day centres on the all-German affair between Jan-Lennard Struff and Alexander Zverev at around 7:30PM GMT.

Zverev admitted to being ill after he profited from a Martin Klizan retirement in the previous round and coupled with his below average record at Indian Wells in his fledgling career it is probably worth opposing the world number three.

As noted in the tournament preview, Zverev lost in dismal fashion to Joao Sousa in the second round here last year and the slower conditions at Indian Wells are hardly best suited to players struggling with ailments.

True, it only takes a few days rest to recover from a minor cold – and Zverev will be grateful for the brief second round assignment – but Struff boasts enough power to trouble even a healthy Zverev.

We backed him in the second round to take care of Ricardas Berankis in straight sets but he wilted briefly before producing a flawless couple of sets to advance.

He may be 0-5 in his career against his German compatriot but he came within a few games of defeating him in their last meeting at Masters 1000 level in Monte-Carlo last year when he fell 6-4 in the third.

In truth, it will likely boil down to the serving level of Zverev and wagering a small stake on Struff to capitalise on a less-than-100% opponent at 4/1 could prove valuable.

Elsewhere, Dominic Thiem enjoys conditions here and he has reached beyond the third round in two of his last three visits to Indian Wells.

The Austrian will be hoping the weather forecast is true and he will likely get his match with Gilles Simon underway in late afternoon when temperatures will be even cooler.

Simon, at 34, isn’t the same player he was two or three years ago and Thiem scored a good win over Thompson in straight sets in the previous round, hence a 2-0 win for the Austrian is good value at 11/10.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.3pts – Jan-Lennard Struff to win – 4/1 (Bet365)
  • 0.7pts – Dominic Thiem to win 2-0 – 11/10 (Ladbrokes)