AC Milan v Lazio Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 13/04/19

AC Milan v Lazio Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews AC Milan v Lazio and provides us with his best bets for Sunday night’s Serie A fixture by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -5.78pts

AC Milan v Lazio Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 13/04/19
  • Time: 19:30
  • Venue: San Siro
  • Channel: Premier Sports

This weekend’s tie of the round sees the out-of-form Milan host a similarly struggling Lazio side.

Both teams came into this season with Champions League hopes, but both have suffered disappointing results in recent weeks that have halted their momentum.

Milan still remain in fourth on goal-difference from Atalanta, however, but are just a single point above Roma. They have lost three of their last four league games, including blowing their 1-0 lead over Juventus last weekend.

Lazio are still in the picture for that fourth spot, just three points away from Milan and with a game in hand but they have lost three of their last five away games in the league and not showing great form.

A loss here would be damaging for either club, as momentum is so crucial at this part of the season. Lazio are struggling for goals and Milan are struggling to keep them out, so both will fancy their chances of getting a win and boosting their Champions League chances.

Fourth down to eighth in the league are separated by just the three points and with just seven games left, it remains to be seen as to who is going to snatch that final place.

Team News    

Pepe Reina remains in goal with first-choice Gianluigi Donnarumma still injured and starlet, Lucas Paqueta remains out with an ankle problem.

Lazio have no fresh selection problems, but remain without the trio of Jordan Lukaku, Valon Berisha and Milan Badelj, who are all out for the foreseeable future.

Potential Milan Starting XI: Reina; Calabria, Musacchio, Romagnoli, Rodriguez; Kessie, Bakayoko, Calhanoglu; Suso, Piatek, Borini

Potential Lazio Starting XI:  Strakosha; Luiz Felipe, Acerbi, Bastos; Romulo, Luis Alberto, Leiva, Milinkovic, Lulic; Correa, Immobile

Head To Head

Milan dominate the head-to-head with 25 wins in 58 matches, compared to Lazio’s nine. The away side this weekend have never won a league game in Milan and only have two wins in any competition at the San Siro in their recent history.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Milan and Lazio matches have seen under 2.5 goals in the last four meetings.
  • Milan have been drawing at both half-time and full-time in their last four games against Lazio in all comps.
  • There have been under 2.5 goals scored in nine of Lazio’s last 11 away games in the Serie A.

Betting Odds

  • Milan – 33/20
  • Draw – 12/5
  • Lazio – 15/8

The Verdict

The fact that Lazio have never won a league game in Milan is quite a staggering one but this game does look incredibly difficult to call on recent form, so I am pretty set on staying away from the outright market for this game.

The bet I am looking at for this one is under 2.5 goals at just under even money at 21/25. This bet has landed in the last four meetings between these two sides in all competitions and it has also landed in nine of Lazio’s last 11 league away games. The away side might be three points adrift of Milan, but they have a game in hand, which is a winnable one against Udinese, so they will be keen to just avoid defeat here. Milan have managed just one goal against each of Udinese and Sassuolo in their recent home games, so they look to be struggling slightly for goals.

One man who has not been shy of a goal this season, is Krzysztof Piatek. He has 21 league goals in 30 appearances so far this season and since his move to Milan, he has eight league goals in 11 appearances. He has scores in two consecutive games coming into this game and did score this season against Lazio, for Genoa, before his move in the winter. He is 13/10 to score anytime in this match and his record is so good that you just can never bet against him scoring at least one.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Under 2.5 goals – 21/25
  • 1pt – Piatek to score anytime – 13/10