Brazil v Belgium Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 6th July

Brazil v Belgium Betting Preview, Odds & Tips 6th July

Connor Thompson (@thompsonnn10) previews Belgium v Brazil and provides us with his best bets for Friday’s game by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts.

Belgium v Brazil Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 06/07/18
  • Time: 19:00
  • Venue: Kazan Arena
  • Channel: BBC One

Tournament favourites Brazil will play Belgium in the quarterfinal of the 2018 World Cup and by the time this game kicks-off, both teams will know their opponents should they make the semi-final.

Of course, both teams will be focusing on the here and now. So, let’s do that too, starting with Brazil.

The samba boys haven’t really lived up to pre-tournament expectations. The flair, style and creativity has been broken up by every opponent they’ve faced so far and in the strange way that football works the tables have been turned in this fixture.

It’s actually the boys from Belgium who come into this game with the best attack (12 goals for) and Brazil finds themselves building from the back, holding the crown of best defensive record (1 goal conceded and three clean sheets).

Allison has only faced six on-target-shots over Brazil’s four fixtures and this is a brilliant indicator of their work out of possession.

With Casermiro suspended, Fernandinho is very likely to drop in and keep things ticking in the midfield, however, there is certainly weakness’ with the ‘less experienced’ legs of Fernandinho screening the back four.

If you were thinking of goals in this game, over 2.5 goals have yet to come in in any of Brazil’s World Cup matches, however, it has been a common theme for Roberto Martinez’s men, landing in three of their four games (Panama 3-0, Tunisia 5-2 and Japan 3-2).

It is likely that Belgium continues to use the 343 system which has seen them constantly allow space for the opposition in midfield. Kevin De Bruyne’s forward runs often leave’s Axel Witsel rather isolated in the middle and Japan were the first team to really exploit the gaps.

Martinez opted to use Fellaini and Chadli when in need of goals and this was a surprise to many. Their inclusion in the squad altogether turned a lot of heads in Belgium. Although, his favourites came up trump and scored the equalizer and winner in the space of 20-minutes.

I’d be surprised to see Belgium play this reckless again and I imagine Martinez will be aware of the joy Neymar, Frimino and Willian could potentially have if they were to isolate themselves in a 3v3 or 1v1 against any of their back three.

There is also little to take from previous encounters as the last and only time these two sides faced was back in 2002, Brazil winning 2-0.

Team News

Danilo has recovered from his thigh injury and could replace his deputy Fagner.

Liverpool striker Roberto Frimino could make his first World Cup start after scoring as a late substitute against Mexico.

Casemiro is also suspended after picking up his second yellow of the tournament against Belgium, he is likely to be replaced by Manchester City’s Fernandinho.

Vincent Kompany featured against Japan, although It is likely he’ll miss the game against Brazil, which could create problems for Belgium.

Potential Belgium Starting XI: Courtois; Alderweireld, Vermaelen, Vertonghen; Meunier, De Bruyne, Witsel, Carrasco; Mertens, Lukaku, Hazard.

Potential Brazil Starting XI: Alisson; Danilo, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Filipe Luis; Willian, Fernandinho, Paulinho, Coutinho; Neymar, Firmino.

Head To Head

  • Brazil wins:1 (2-0)
  • Draws:0
  • Belgium wins:0

Key Stats & Facts

  • Brazil have struggled against European sides at the World Cup with a record of two wins, two draws and four losses in their last eight fixtures.
  • The South Americans have been knocked out by a European side in their last three tournaments (France, Netherlands and Germany).
  • Neymar has been involved in 20 goals in his last 19 appearances for Brazil.
  • Belgium are the first team to come back from being two goals down in a knock-out match.
  • Lukaku is Belgium’s top scorer with four despite not scoring against Japan.

Betting Odds

  • Belgium 13/5
  • Draw 12/5
  • Brazil 11/10

The Verdict

As stated earlier, over 2.5 goals has failed to land in any of Brazil’s matches, however, over 1.5 has landed in all of them. I’m backing both teams to get on the score sheet here and I believe BTTS at odds of 8/11 is a risk worth taking. If you don’t trust both sides, over 1.5 goals is a shout at odds of 1/3, as that covers either side running away with it (also saves you from that dodgy VAR penalty). One thing is for sure, both teams have a goal in them, the stats don’t lie.

The tricky PSG winger Neymar may be up against former Arsenal man Vermaelen and the defender’s best years are certainly behind him. I fancy the speed and movement of Neymar, Coutinho and Frimino to find an opening against a Belgium back three and I’m suggesting Neymar anytime at 5/4. For the safer option, Belgium clean sheet NO is the go-to at 2/9.

If anyone is brave enough to back correct score, 1-1 seems the most likely in my opinion and that can be found at 11/2 on Bet365.

Recommended Bets

  • BTTS @ 8/11 (Sky Bet)
  • Neymar anytime @ 5/4 (Bet 365)
  • Correct Score 1-1 @ 11/2 (Bet 365)