Buccaneers @ Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 14/10/18

Buccaneers v Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s NFL showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 14/10/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

It is hard to move away from betting on these Atlanta Falcons games. That is even more the case when the Falcons are playing at home. When they are then their offence appears to function at full capacity to go with their defensive struggles. Since Week 1 their defence has surrendered 36.25 points per game and since they lost the bulk of their best defensive players in Week 2 they have been surrendering an average of 40.33 points per game.

The Buccaneers defence have played one game in a dome this season, in which they scored 48 points as they defeated the Saints. However, that was with gunslinger quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick under centre. After the team struggled in the first half of the game against the Chicago Bears he was replaced by franchise quarterback Jameis Winston. Winston is a quarterback with a ton of talent but is prone to lapses. However, he has had a bye week to prepare for this game a superb group of receiving weapons at his disposal including Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. In 2018, both Evans and Jackson are averaging over 100 yards receiving a game. This offense should be able to exploit the Falcons defence a lot this season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence has not been great either as you will see from some of the statistics below. Matt Ryan and this Falcons offence should be able to move the ball at will and should score plenty of points in this game.

Team News

Devonta Freeman was held out of practice Wednesday with a foot injury, having just returned from a knee injury. Grady Jarrett who missed last week also missed practice with an ankle issue. Justin Bethel, Mohamed Sanu and Derrick Shelby were all limited in practice on Wednesday.

The Buccaneers have had a bye week to prepare and had no one missing from practice. The most important player present was their dynamic tight end O.J. Howard, who sprained his MCL in Week 4. Defensive backs Carlton Davis, Marcus Williams and Jordan Whitehead were all present which should boost the Buccaneers ability to defend the pass.

Head To Head

  • Falcons lead 25-24 all-time.
  • Falcons lead 13-7 since Matt Ryan was drafted.
  • Series is tied 3-3 since Jameis Winston was drafted.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Falcons are averaging 34.7 points in home game this season.
  • At home this season Ryan is averaging 355 yards and 3.33 touchdowns per game.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence ranks last against quarterbacks surrendering 370 passing yards and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game.
  • The Atlanta Falcons defence ranks fourth worst against quarterbacks surrendering 287 passing yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game.
  • The Buccaneers defence is surrendering over 100 yards per game to tight ends this season.
  • In eight games in his career against the Falcons Mike Evans has six touchdowns and is averaging 86.5 yards per game.
  • In 12 games in his career against the Buccaneers Julio Jones has 10 touchdowns and 117.8 yards per game.

Betting Odds

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11/8
  • Atlanta Falcons 4/6

The Verdict

In terms of the result this game is tough to call. Normally I would look to back the Falcons in what has become a must-win game for them having won one and lost four of their five games so far. However, their defence being so bad this season means it is hard to bet on the Falcons being able to hold on and win this game.

Instead I will once again turn my attention to the amount of points scored. I see both teams at least getting into the 30s in this game and there is every chance we may see one team hit the 40s. Therefore betting over 57.5 points will once again be a solid bet to back. To go with that I would bet the over on touchdowns scored with the current line at 6.5 touchdowns.

Finally, bets on over/under receiving yards are not widely available right now but I would look closely at the lines for Evans, Jones and Jackson. For all three anything over 70-90 is worth a little bet. All three could have monster games in Week 6.

Recommended Bets

  • Over 57.5 total points scored – 19/20 (Bet365)
  • Over 6.5 touchdowns scored – 17/20 (betway)