Eibar v Celta Vigo Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/03/19
Sam Langston (@Samlan98) previews Eibar v Celta Vigo and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s La Liga clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +1.83pts
Eibar v Celta Vigo Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 03/03/2019
- Time: 11:00
- Venue: Ipurua Municipal Stadium
- Channel: Eleven Sports
Sunday’s early offering from the Spanish top flight pits entertaining Eibar up against struggling Celta Vigo and we should be in for an open contest when the sides clash at the Ipurua Municipal Stadium.
Eibar are one of the smallest clubs to ever compete in Spain’s top tier and have been La Liga’s consistent overachievers since being promoted to the league for the first time in 2014.
Los Armeros have recorded respectable ninth and 10th place finishes in the last two seasons and they’re once again going about their business impressively this term, particularly at their Basque Country base.
Unbeaten at the Ipurua in their previous nine league fixtures, losing just twice there over the course of the campaign (W6-D5-L2), Sunday’s hosts boast an excellent home record and are the hot favourites to enhance their excellent return here.
Having taken just four points since talisman Iago Aspas got injured on the 22nd December against Barcelona, Celta Vigo have slumped to 17th in the standings and are now in serious danger of dropping into the Segunda División.
Miguel Cardoso’s men have been defeated on seven out of their last nine outings in La Liga, shipping a plentiful 19 goals in the process, and despite earning their first away clean sheet of the season in last weekend’s goalless draw at Alavés, they’ll do well to take anything away against an arguably more potent offensive outfit on Sunday.
After nine months on the sidelines, Pedro León made his first appearance of the season for Eibar in last Saturday’s Basque derby defeat to Bilbao. The influential forward is expected to feature again here, although he may only be fit enough for a place on the bench.
As aforementioned, Iago Aspas has re-injured his calf and will miss another sizeable chunk of the season. Betis loanee Ryad Boudebouz returns from suspension for the visitors after he was sent off against Levante on his debut.
Potential Eibar Starting XI: Riesgo, Cote, Arbilla, Oliveira, Peña, Diop, Jordán, Cucurella, Orellana, Charles, Enrich.
Potential Celta Vigo Starting XI: Blanco, Hoedt, Araujo, Costas, Juncà, Lobotka, Yokuslu, Mallo, Boufal, Méndez, Gómez.
Head To Head
- Celta Vigo have won each of the last five meetings between the sides.
Key Stats & Facts
- Overs has banked in nine out of 13 La Liga fixtures at the Ipurua Stadium.
- Four of Eibar’s six home encounters with bottom half teams have produced three or more goals.
- Nine out of Celta’s 12 games on the road have seen Over 2.5 Goals.
- Eibar – 5/6
- Draw – 74/25
- Celta Vigo – 7/2
Throughout his tenure at Eibar, long-standing boss José Luis Mendilibar has encouraged an attack-minded and direct approach. Mendilibar’s side try to work the ball into to full-backs Cote and Rubén Peña, who push forward and look to whip crosses into the box as early as possible.
Los Armeros have in fact attempted a whopping 34 crosses per-game this season, the highest average in the five major domestic European leagues, and they’re profiting from this highly-direct style, placing in the top five for total shots, shots on target, shots in the penalty area, xG, and goals for per-game at home.
As such, with Sunday’s showdown representing an ideal opportunity for the hosts to get back to winning ways, we can expect them to put Vigo under pressure from the off, peppering the vulnerable visitors’ penalty area with plenty of crosses and shots on goal.
Notwithstanding some of their dire displays in recent weeks, Celta are actually performing relatively well in a number of offensive data metrics. Away from home, Vigo have fired in the second most shots, third most shots on target, and also the third most shots within the penalty area, as well as accumulating the league’s sixth highest xG figure on the road. Admittedly, the injured Iago Aspas, arguably the single-most important player to any team in La Liga, is a key contributor towards this data, but I still think that the Over/Under market has reacted excessively to his absence here.
Aspas’ teammates have been performing so poorly defensively that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eibar notch three goals by themselves here, having done so in four of their previous seven fixtures on home turf. On their travels, Celta are conceding a considerable average of 1.92 goals per-game, which positions them as the worst defensive side away from home in the division, and their opponents on Sunday possess the quality in attacking areas to put them to the sword.
All factors considered, the 10/11 available on Over 2.5 Goals with Bet365 looks a belting bet to be backing this weekend.