Everton v West Ham Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 19/10/19

Everton v West Ham Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Everton v West Ham and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s televised lunchtime clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +13.05pts

Everton v West Ham Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 19/10/19
  • Time: 12:30
  • Venue: Goodison Park
  • Channel: BT Sport

Everton will be looking to ease the strain on boss Marco Silva as they host West Ham in the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday.

The Toffees have endured a woeful start to the season – winning just two of their eight Premier League games – leaving them in the relegation zone. A Jeff Hendrick strike, after Seamus Coleman was shown a second yellow card, succumbed Everton to their fifth Premier League league defeat at Turf Moor last time out, piling the pressure on Silva.

The fact that both of their league wins have come at home will give the Goodison Park faithful some hope that they can snatch a critical victory on Saturday.

However, the visitors: West Ham, are looking to bounce back after a VAR influenced defeat at home to Crystal Palace prior to the international break.

The Hammers have looked free-flowing, dynamic and direct at times this season, enjoying a six-game unbeaten run after their 5-0 defeat to Manchester City on the opening weekend of the season. Whilst they were impressive against United and Bournemouth, albeit the latter was a 2-2 draw, results like the one they suffered last time out is why they’ll struggle to push for a top-six spot this season.

This is one of the better West Ham sides of the Premier League era, if not the best, with no obvious weakness in their strongest XI.  However, stats would suggest they’ve been rather fortuitous thus far.

Through eight games, the Hammers have the second-highest xGA (expected goals against) in the league (16.12) with only Norwich having a worse record (17.48). But, whilst the Canaries have conceded 21 in eight, the worst defensive record in the league, West Ham have only conceded 11 and their +5.12 difference between actual goals conceded and xGA is the greatest in the league, by some distance.

So, to put it simply, their defeat against Palace was one of those games where their luck ran out, with the Eagles scoring twice from four shots on target.

On the contrary, Everton’s issue lies at the other end of the pitch – they’ve scored just six times this season and half of those came in one game.

Silva has struggled to find a consistent front-four in his 4-2-3-1, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Moise Kean have rotated as the number nine; whilst Gylfi Sigurdsson, Bernard, Richarlison and Alex Iwobi have got gigs in the ‘three’ behind the striker.

Despite Sigurdsson’s struggles, the issue hasn’t necessarily been creating chances: Everton’s xG is the ninth highest in the division (11.24), leaving them with a +5.24 gap between goals scored and xG – they’re the second biggest underachievers in front of goal.

Whilst failing to be clinical hasn’t been the only issue, it’s been a major factor in their early struggles. In the six games where they’ve dropped points so far, they’ve outperformed their opponents in terms of xG in five of them, with the 3-1 defeat to City being the anomaly.

In another world, I could be writing this preview with Everton in a top-four/six spot and Silva’s job never being so secure. Instead, the ex-Hull and Watford boss is likely playing/managing for his job on Saturday.

Team News        

Marco Silva will still be without Jean-Philippe Gbamin, who’s suffering from a quad injury, whilst Fabian Delph is struggling with a hamstring problem. Seamus Coleman is also suspended after picking up two yellows against Burnley.

Manuel Pellegrini should have Declan Rice available to them on Saturday, despite the midfielder missing England training with flu. They will, however, be without Lukasz Fabianski, Michail Antonio​ and Winston Reid due to long-term injury woes.

Potential Everton Starting XI: Pickford; Sidibe, Keane, Mina, Digne; Delph, Gomes; Richarlison, Sigurdsson, Iwobi, Calvert-Lewin.

Potential West Ham Starting XI: Roberto; Fredericks, Diop, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Rice; Yarmolenko, Noble, Lanzini, Anderson; Haller.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Everton-70, Draw-30, West Ham-40
  • The Hammers ran out 3-1 winners in this fixture last season – Andriy Yarmolenko bagging a brace.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Everton have lost four games on the spin.
  • West Ham’s defeat at home to Palace was their first in the league since the opening day – they’re yet to be beaten on the road.
  • Everton’s +5.24 difference between goals scored and xG is the second largest in the league, making them the second biggest underachievers in the division.
  • Only Norwich (17.48) have a worse xGA than West Ham (16.12).
  • After keeping two clean sheets in their first two games, the Toffees have conceded 13 in six games.
  • Record-signing Sebastian Haller is the Hammers’ top scorer this season with four.

Betting Odds

  • Everton 1/1
  • Draw 37/13
  • West Ham 31/10

The Verdict

Silva has to be playing for his job here…surely? Although they’re currently sitting in the relegation zone, in an alternate universe, they could easily be pushing the top six (read the match preview). With West Ham generally conceding too many ‘quality’ chances so far this season, they’ll count themselves lucky that Everton are next on the fixture list.

However, I see Everton winning this one and I expect goals. This Everton side has enough talent going forward and it’s only a matter of time until the rub of the green starts to go in their favour. Their xG shows how they’ve been poor in front of goal this season, but I’m backing them to put at least a couple past a West Ham side that’s without their number one shot-stopper and generally allows the opposition to create some decent openings over the 90 minutes. With West Ham boasting a pretty impressive front-line, led by £45m Haller, I expect them to score past a pretty tame Everton defence that will be without Seamus Coleman.

For my other bet, I’m going to go down the stats aisle – particularly corners. At Goodison Park this season, Everton average 7 corners per game, whilst on their travels, West Ham average 5.75 corner kicks. Both teams possess full-backs that like to get into crossing situations deep into the opposition’s final-third – Lucas Digne for Everton and Ryan Fredericks for the Hammers – whilst also beholding wide midfielders that don’t mind hugging the flanks and getting to the byline when in possession.

The point is that we should see plenty of opportunities for corners on Saturday and I’m backing there to be at least 11 of them.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Everton to win with BTTS – 13/5 (Betfair)
  • 1pt – Over 10.5 corners – Evens (Paddy Power)