Football Index | A Trader's Diary | Episode 1 | W/E 01/11/2017
Football Index | A Trader’s Diary | Episode 1 | W/E 01/11/2017
Welcome everyone to my first column for thepunterspage.com. I am looking forward to sharing my passion for Football Index with you over the coming season and beyond. As an Irishman gambling runs through my veins (the blood test was positive). I have gambled on everything (besides bowls) but the Football Index is the best platform I have ever used. It merges the characteristics of a traditional stock market with the bonus of buying and selling of footballers you know, however after buying John Terry I did need a shower. In my six months of trading on the Football Index I have made an ROI of 35%. This is consistently more than I have made on any other platform, while also learning about patience, risk appetite and investing strategies.
I will be sharing with you my trading experiences including the ups and downs. I hope this will entertain, educate and help you avoid or relate to the mistakes I have made. Each week I will write about my own personal trading week and observations about the wider index over the seven days. I am going to start with £500 capital and give three tips for players I will be buying myself so hopefully we can all profit together. I would like to make an ROI of 30% by the end of the season. I will invest £100 long term and £300 on players to hold or flip when they reach a peak price or to reinvest elsewhere. I will keep £50 for the weekly IPO’s and finally the rest for opportunities as they arise. I have used this as my own strategy for the last 6 months. Finally, each week I will briefly look at one key aspect of the Football Index ranging from the weekly IPO’s and taking advantage of the 24-hour holding rule for dividends or the impact of instant selling on the index.
Are Media Buzz Players Heading Back To The Top?
The first purchase out of my £500 is one player to track over the year. This hopefully will highlight whether choosing a long-term strategy works or not. The player I have decided on is Lorenzo Insigne of Napoli (see graphic below). I bought 39 futures @ £2.54 at roughly £100 so readers can use this as a benchmark for how much you would usually invest. I think he’s a good long term hold – even over 3 years. He has a good age profile (26), will play in the World Cup and Napoli has a very high win ratio. His OPTA stats are excellent averaging 145 points per game and he is a striker. A key tip I would give when buying strikers is always to look for high passers. Neymar, Messi and Insigne are great examples. Accurate passes are the foundation of a good OPTA performer. These players average 50-60 points just from passing so when they do score or get a Game Winning Goal (GWG) they have a very high chance of winning the striker buzz or even star player buzz. Each week I will update his ROI from the date of purchase and will test how a long-term strategy works compared to the ROI of the cumulative weekly tips.
As this is my first article, I have not made any purchases until the end of the week. I spent my time researching the market for opportunities. So, what has the last week on the Index been like? Compared to last week’s rollercoaster, this week is more a like a gentle walk on the pier.
Last week saw a 10% rise on the Index after the announcement of the Performance Buzz (PB) changes effective from November. This week has been more stable, however, I have noticed huge price changes on individual players. Two players have dominated the Index this week – Lukaku and Kane. Both are traditional Media Buzz (MB) players with a less statistical chance of PB however Kane has again proven he can capture both with 2 PB pay-outs this week and three MB wins also. This gave him a total of 27p per future in dividends. Lukaku won his first MB since the opening day of the season on Monday. These have helped push Kane up by £1.21 and Lukaku by 58p.
I think these increases are part of a wider pattern of MB prices creeping up across the board over the week. This week the top 25 players increased by £1.13 with large drops in the players below the top 25. There are a few reasons for this new trend. Firstly, there are no PB pay-outs for the next two weeks due to the international break meaning triple MB pay-outs. People are looking for some safety come November as the market is very volatile and currently most of the MB players represent great value after the massive drops over the last two weeks. This has had an opposite impact on the PB players with a lot of volatility in their prices.
The market seems to overreact if a top player does not win a PB pay-out even though their average score could be above 150. This gives opportunities to top up at their current cheaper prices. The two players hit the most this week are Verratti and Thiago. They are in a group of the top midfielders expected to do well on PB, along with Kroos and Kevin De Bruyne. Both these are down by approximately 60p in the last week. After the PB changes announced last week, I believe these two players were overinflated. Some correction had to happen but now I think they both represent value but they could fall further over the international break.
Defenders are also all down in price this week. The impact of the November squad additions is already having an effect as come November with so many defenders in the squad a GWG from a defender could be enough to get the pay-out. Having said that, Stones (£1.78) and Alves (£1.74) still provide good value with Stones winning the Saturday PB with a score of 181. The market is still settling down so for now it’s best to buy low risk blue chip players. I think during the international break a lot of PB bargains will be available but I will look at this next week.
So, who did I decide to buy after all my research? Well I decided on three players. They are all MB focused and I will be looking to earn MB dividends which I can use to reinvest in PB bargains. This should also increase their share price giving some extra profit. I think the media buzz related to the England team is overstated and transfer buzz still dominates the media during international breaks. With all this in mind, my first pick is Mesut Ozil. His current price of £2.31 is the third lowest he has been in 3 months. He has been linked with Inter which will create buzz but it’s the Man United links to Mourinho which could send his price skywards. He is a low risk investment at his current price with a lot of upside.
My second choice in a similar vein is Naby Keita. He is currently £1.22 which has been his average value for the last three months. Leipzig look in trouble in the Champions League and are struggling in the league. Many papers have been carrying the story about the possibility that Naby will move to Liverpool in January rather than the summer. He does seem demotivated at Leipzig and if this hits the papers over the next couple of weeks it could be a huge story. The average price of a Liverpool midfielder is £1.75 so there is little risk around this trade with Naby confirmed to move in the summer and he has already won one PB this season.
My last pick is Zlatan Ibrahimović currently at £3.52. The news broke on Sunday that he will be back in training late October. When we last had serious news on Ibra his price went over £4. Ibra last season was the media buzz king and I see no reason why he won’t take back the crown when he returns. Lukaku’s form has dented his potential price but in the short term traders will chase dividends so he should reach over £4 again especially from November when the squad players are introduced. This will lead to less players able to win MB and Ibra returning could be a huge story. There is also another international break in November so I see him as a low risk purchase.
As mentioned above, next week will be the international break so it will be interesting to discuss how the market operates without any matches. PB players prices historically reduce during international breaks and so hopefully a few bargains can be picked up. I will look back on successes and failures, lessons that I learnt and clarify the impact of instant selling, spreads and commission which I think new trader’s overlook.
Feel free to tweet me (@CWalshFITipster) with any feedback about the article and any suggestions on potential new areas to cover. I wish everyone a profitable week ahead.
- Mesut Ozil
- Naby Keita
- Zlatan Ibrahimović
Tracked Player of the Year
- Lorenzo Insigne