Football Index | A Trader's Diary | Episode 2 | W/E 08/11/2017
Football Index | A Trader’s Diary | Episode 2 | W/E 08/11/2017
Welcome everyone to my second column for thepunterspage.com. What a week it has been on the Football Index. This week has reinforced a few things for me that are needed to be successful on the Football Index. You need to be patient, have belief in the long-term future and direction of the Football Index and grab opportunities when everyone else is selling.
This week I’ll look at how my trading week developed, what happened on the wider market, review last week’s tips and give some tips for the week ahead. I mentioned last week I was going to discuss instant selling and its impact but I am writing an article later this week about the overall Football Index aimed at new traders so will pick this theme up within that article. I will tweet it out later this week so make sure to follow me.
The beginning of this trading week followed the same pattern as last week with a sell-off of Performance Buzz (PB) players especially midfielders, with the cash flowing into Media Buzz (MB) players Kane and Morata. I held my PB players as I felt they would rebound after the international break. This slump continued till 5 o clock when luckily, I looked at my twitter feed on my way home from work. One key to success on the Football Index is to have a twitter account as so much index information breaks on twitter. The Football Index had released a bonus offer of 10% for all traded deposits between Monday and Thursday. The offer got a muted response on twitter but straight away I spotted the potential. It would fast forward the rebound on PB players that had dipped and increase the price of less risky blue-chip players. The index always offers either clarification or offers after a dip in the market and this usually stabilises and boosts the index.
I straight away deposited £2000 and bought Messi, Dybala, Insigne, Kevin De Bruyne, more of my three tips from last week and the PB midfielders that had suffered massive losses. I got them at great prices as most traders waited to see the reaction to the bonus. This is a lesson always trust your gut and be brave. My overall ROI has gone from 35% to 54% because of moving early. The index itself has increased by 5% from 8272 on Monday morning to 8682 on Sunday night. A good example of this rebound is Insigne on the chart below who has gone up by 15%. For me, the bigger boost could be next week when the bonus money is credited to accounts. The international games will be finished and money will flow to PB players as the bonus must be played through 20 times before it can be withdrawn. This will cause a rise in some of the key PB players and my tips this week are based around taking advantage of this. The squad additions loom on the 1st of November which is still worrying traders so hopefully, we get some early communication about the plans around squad releases which again will stabilise the market. It could cause a dip in MB only players who have been the focus of the index this week.
With no games most, money besides bonus related transactions have been to take advantage of the triple media buzz. Harry Kane and Morata dominated the early part of the week. Harry Kane (graph below) is the form player on the index with 28p in MB wins this week and mid-week it joined the £6 club with Neymar. With his PB potential, he could remain above £6 for a while, however, I would be cautious as a few bad performances could see him crash hard. I mentioned last week that the England teams buzz potential was overdone and that proved to be the case besides Kane and young Harry Wicks. The focus has been around injuries Morata, Fellaini Kante all winning, contract issues Sánchez, Alli and Ozil and finally transfer buzz news helped raise players particularly Martens (graph below) potential move to United. I think this is something that will start to have a greater impact on MB as we approach the end of the year. It is worth having this in mind when buying players as the transfer window is extremely profitable but very risky. If you have time I would suggest looking at the Perisic graph below in detail for an example of this. If you bought at the dips and sold at the peaks you would have made huge returns but obviously better to be one step ahead and as I mentioned follow your gut and buy someone you think will move early. The addition of the squad players will add even more opportunity to do this. Triple Buzz really is a great addition and gives even PB players like Messi the chance to win. He has won 7p in dividend this week alone and a lot of chat on twitter has been about triple buzz for PB. If this is cost neutral for FI it could really help stabilise the market.
Having touched on the squad promotions the two players promoted in this Fridays IPO Andrea Silva and Ciro Immobile are two great additions to the index. I managed to buy Andre Silva at 30p and I sold him at £1.00. I think he will fall after this weekend and I will rebuy him for Europa league matches. I missed out on Ciro due to a work meeting but I bought 50 futures of him at an average price of £1.10 which I think will be a bargain. He is Lazio’s main player, he scores for fun, will be at the world cup if Italy qualifies and his Opta stats are amazing. I think Falcao is a good benchmark and £2 would be a fairer price for him.
I hope you all managed to buy my tips for last week at the prices I mentioned, as it has been a profitable week for all three. I have included below the ROI on each but if you had bought £300 worth of these futures as I suggested last week you would have made an ROI of 8.6% including the buzz win of 5p for Ozil. This ROI is before commission. I do think Zlatan could really rocket next week on the index with numerous reports leaking about his return so it might be worth investing more into him as his MB potential is huge before the transfer season kicks in.
My tips for next week are focused on the fact that next week the triple MB buzz finishes so money should flow into PB players along with the bonuses credited on Monday. If you pick the right PB players you could make some decent returns. I have picked three players each for the following criteria, players who are in a form team against weak opposition, players playing at home against a weaker team, or player with little competition to win some PB dividends. My first pick is Neymar who is currently trading at £6.13. As the index has risen over 5% this week on average, Neymar is one of the few players to see a price drop without any real reason behind it. He scored a healthy 163 points in his last game and PSG plays Dijon this weekend away from home. Dijon has not won at home this season and with the amount of possession, PSG will have I think a GWG from Neymar could be enough to win him Striker Buzz looking at the other Saturday fixtures. He is expensive but at his peak, he was £6.50 and with a PB win he should exceed that giving a nice ROI at his current price.
My next tip is Arturo Vidal currently £1.20 on the index. He has fallen from a peak of £2.04 on the 24/09/2017 and even before PB was announced his average price was £1.02 showing how undervalued he is currently. He has fallen like other PB midfielders due to worries about how hard it is for midfielders to win however his average score of 130 is impressive as he’s been subbed in two of those games. He has huge PB potential as he has scored 9 goals in 50 league matches for Bayern a key to midfielders winning PB. Bayern plays Freiburg at home who have conceded 4 goals in each of their last two away matches. Its Jupps first match as manager so I expect a big Bayern performance and if Vidal plays he could get a huge score. If he misses the game he’s still great value as Bayern have some easy games in the cl against Celtic and Anderlecht.
My final tip is Ivan Perisic of Inter Milan currently £1.23. His average price over the last month is £1.33 showing his current value. He has limited competition for midfielder buzz this Sunday besides Everton midfielders who are in poor form. That would be a 6p pay-out on his current price a nice ROI of 5%. I think inter long term have favourable fixtures with lack of competition even when the squad players are released and he has won two PB already this season so, winning a couple more PB under double layouts is not unrealistic making him an attractive hold.
I hope this article has been helpful and send me a tweet if you need any advice or would like me to write about anything what would be useful. As I mentioned last week Lorenzo Insigne is my long-term hold and at the bottom is the ROI on my £100 investment so far which I will track over the year. Next week besides the usual tips and trading week I will be looking at the PB scoring itself. What is key to high PB scoring in each position, where you can find this information and how to use it to make profit especially from the squad players that have potential.
I wish everyone a profitable week ahead.
Players Tips from Last Week
- Mesut Ozil at £2.31 – now trading at £2.42 One 5p MB Win ROI 6.8%
- Naby Keita at £1.22 – now trading at £1.38 ROI 11.6%
- Zlatan Ibrahimović at £3.52 – now trading at £3.72 ROI 5.6%
Players Tips For This Week
- Ivan Perisic
- Arturo Vidal
Tracked Player of the Year
- Lorenzo Insigne – Bought on 01/10/2017 at £2.54 and he is currently trading at £2.94 – an ROI of 15.7%.