Inter Milan v Roma Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 20/04/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Inter v Roma and provides us with his best bets for Saturday night’s Serie A fixture by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: – 3.30pts
Inter Milan v Roma Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 20/04/19
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
- Channel: Premier Sports
The big Easter weekend clash of the weekend sees Roma travel to Inter, as the Giallorossi’s quest for fourth place continues.
Inter are nine points clear of Roma and are five clear of fourth placed Milan and their place in next season’s Champions League looks all but secured, barring a real meltdown.
Roma are one point behind Milan, who currently sit in that final Champions League spot, but the likelihood is, that by the time this game comes around, Milan will be four points clear, as they travel to Parma, who are in very poor form.
That then puts real pressure on Claudio Ranieri’s men to get a result, as anything but a win could see them drop down to seventh, as Atalanta and Lazio are hot on their tails.
Inter’s league position can be slightly mis-leading as you never quite know what they are capable of. At home they have beaten the likes of Napoli, Fiorentina and Milan but have also lost to the likes of Parma and Bologna and drawn with Sassuolo, so I am always slightly uncomfortable with backing them.
Roma are quite similar to Inter in that respect and have also been pretty poor against top seven teams this season. They have only managed one win in their 10 matches against the top sides in the league and have not beaten a top 7 side away from home all season.
With all of that being said, I think the best thing to do here would be to stay away from the outright market. Inter start as odds-on favourites at about 4/5, with Roma at about 7/2 and the draw at just under 3/1. Those prices on Roma look decent but there just is not enough form to suggest they are going to go to Milan and win.
Marcelo Brozovic and Borja Valero are both out for this game whilst Mauro Icardi is expected to start ahead of Lautaro Martinez up-front.
Daniele de Rossi is out injured, so Steven Nzonzi is expected to replace him in midfield. Aleksandar Kolorov has served his suspension and will return to the starting line-up.
Potential Inter Starting XI: Handanovic; D’Ambrosio, De Vrij, Skriniar, Asamoah; Vecino, Gagliardini; Politano, Nainggolan, Perisic; Icardi
Potential Roma Starting XI: Mirante; Florenzi, Manolas, Fazio, Kolarov; Cristante, Nzonzi; Zaniolo, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy; Dzeko
Head To Head
- Inter have 28 wins in 69 matches against Roma, with Roma winning 20 and 21 draws. Only seven times in the last 31 meetings between these two has seen the away team win.
Key Stats & Facts
- There has been under 2.5 goals in seven of Inter’s last eight Serie A home games.
- Eight of the last nine Serie A matches between these two sides has seen BTTS.
- BTTS and over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of the last 10 Serie A meetings.
- Inter – 81/100
- Draw – 29/10
- Roma – 15/4
Like I have said, this is a difficult game to call because you have two sides who are, really, capable of anything. Roma have the weapons to cause Inter problems but Inter also have one of the best defensive records in the league and have one of the deadliest strikers in world football in Mauro Icardi.
Inter have struggled for goals in recent matches at home, recording a blank in four of their last six. Roma will be coming at them and wanting to get a win that keeps them in touch with Milan in fourth. Having said that, Inter have managed 7 goals in their last three games and have the luxury of not needing to win here, as they are comfortably inside the top four.
Roma have won just one of their 10 matches against top 7 opposition (W1 D5 L4), have failed to win any away games against those sides (W0 D2 L3) and conceded, on average, 2.1 goals per game in those games against the top 7. They have conceded the most goals of any of the top half sides in Serie A with 45 and Inter have only failed to score five teams at home all season.
The first play here is for Inter to score over 1.5 goals at 81/100. Roma leak plenty of goals, especially away from home and especially against the teams towards the top end of the table. They have to go for this game as well, which will leave them vulnerable at the back and with the likes of Perisic and Icardi up front for Inter, you’d fancy them to profit.
My other play for this game is Mauro Icardi to score anytime at 11/10. He has six goals in 11 appearances against Roma and has scored four in his last five against them. He scored in the reverse fixture away from home and he has been out for Inter for a while and he will be keen to continue his comeback with another goal in this one.