Italy v Sweden Betting Preview | 13th November
In our Italy vs Sweden betting preview we look at team news, potential line-ups, stats & facts, head-to-head, popular bets and more for Monday’s second-leg World Cup Play-Off.
Italy v Sweden Betting Preview
Venue: San Siro
Channel: Sky Sports
Italy have not failed to qualify for a World Cup since 1958 and after Friday night’s away first-leg defeat to Sweden, they could be on the verge of missing out.
The Azzurri were incredibly poor in the 1-0 loss and now leave themselves with a tricky second-leg tie to negotiate if they are to qualify for next summer’s tournament in Russia.
The score is just one-nil so the game is perfectly balanced and incredibly close. Italy will feel that they have the better side in terms of quality but Sweden are an extremely organised and committed team who are very strong defensively.
Both sides struggled to create clear cut chances in the first-leg and Sweden only scored because of an unfortunate deflected goal. But Italy will know that Sweden will sit back and try to defend their narrow lead.
However, Italy need to respond now. The fans and the nation demand their team to be at the World Cup and they will have to come out and try to break Sweden down – something they could not do on Friday.
Without the suspended Marco Veratti, manager Ventura will have to make changes in the midfield and Lorenzo Insigne will surely be promoted to the starting eleven after being dropped for the first-leg.
Italy are not normally involved in high scoring games but this fixture could go one or two ways in terms of goals. If Italy get one, then Sweden will still sit back and allow Italy possession and hope to take the game to extra-time.
Under 2.5 goals in this one is best priced at 13/20 with MarathonBet but if Sweden manage a goal, Italy suddenly need three and therefore the flood gates could open at both ends so there could be some value at 141/100 for over 2.5 goals, again with MarathonBet.
Italy are the favourites at 11/20 but this will be a very close game and both sides pride themselves on their defence. But with the quality they have on the field and the home advantage, my best bet would be Draw/Italy in the half-time/full-time market and you can get that at 13/4 with MarathonBet.
Marco Veratti is suspended following his yellow card in the first-leg and Albin Ekdal will face a late fitness test after limping off just after half-time on Friday night.
Potential Italy Starting XI: Buffon; Chiellini, Bonucci, Barzagli; Candreva, Florenzi, Jorginho, Parolo, Darmian; Immobile, Gabbiadini
Potential Sweden Starting XI: Olsen; Lustig, Lindelof, Granqvist, Augustinsson; Claesson, Larsson, Ekdal, Forsberg; Toivonen, Berg
Stats & Facts
- Italy have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 5 matches against Sweden.
- Italy are undefeated in 7 games against Sweden at home.
- Italy have never lost a World Cup Qualifier on home soil, a run spanning 54 matches.
- Italy have won 11 of the 24 games with Sweden winning 7 and 6 draws.
- Italy to win and under 2.5 – 15/8 (BoyleSports)
- Italy to win 1-0 – 9/2 (WilliamHill)
- BTTS – 20/13 (188 Bet)
- Draw half-time/Italy full-time – 13/4 (MarathonBet)
Italy – 11/20 Draw – 16/5 Sweden – 37/5