Lazio v Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 18th August

Lazio v Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips 11th August

Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marchCF96) previews Lazio vs Napoli and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s stand-out Serie A fixture by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Lazio vs Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 18/08/18
  • Time: 19:30
  • Venue: Stadio Olimpico

A new era begins for Napoli, as they begin life without Maurizio Sarri under one of football’s most successful and experienced managers in Carlo Ancelotti. Napoli have also lost key players Pepe Reina and Jorginho in the summer and could find it a difficult to ask to replicate their performance from last season.

As for Lazio, their final day home defeat to Inter meant they missed out on Champions League football this season and will again have to juggle their league campaign with Europa League, which will certainly stretch their squad.

Filippo Inzaghi had a successful first season in charge last term, despite missing out on the Champions League and will be hoping his star men; Ciro Immobile, Luis Alberto and Milinkovic-Savic, can push them towards the top 4 again.

In terms of this opener, it is certainly difficult to call and the bookies seem to agree. Lazio are at 9/5, the draw at 13/5 and Napoli at 6/4, which shows how tight it is and you could make a case for either winning here.

Napoli won four of their six pre-season games, but looked a side trying to deal with the summer changes and in their games against Liverpool and Wolfsburg, a side who may struggle in general this season.

They start as second favourites for the title but Lazio could profit from getting them early here and given they lost just five of their 19 home games last season, the 9/5 looks decent value. Holding onto Milinkovic-Savic was key this summer, amongst 100 million pound offers from some of Europe’s top clubs and Ciro Immobile and Luis Alberto’s chemistry up top is enough to breach any defence in this league.

Having said that, Napoli still have plenty of quality all over the pitch and with Lazio having a defensive issue on the flanks for this game, the likes of Jose Callejon and Lorenzo Insigne could profit. Arkadiusz Milik looks like getting the strikers role up top and, when fit, is a real goal scoring threat. In Raul Albiol and Kalidou Koulibaly, Napoli have one of the strongest centre-back pairings in Europe and they conceded just 29 goals last season. Dries Mertens looks to be used as a weapon off the bench and everyone knows of his world class ability.

Napoli have the better of the previous meetings, winning five of the last six between them. They won both games 4-1 last season and have averaged over 3 goals a game against them in their last six meetings. Given that this game is the first of the new season, neither side will want to lose so it could be quite a cagey affair. However, I think siding with the away side here could be the way to go, given how Lazio look to be struggling in the defensive areas and the likes of Jose Callejon and Insigne could find quite a bit of room out wide. Should be a closer game than in recent years but Napoli could just have the edge.

Team News

New summer-signings Francesco Acerbi and Milan Badelj look set to ear their debuts for Lazio and Filippo Inzaghi has the luxury of being able to still name star man, Milinkovic-Savic, in his side to start the season. Inzaghi is without the trio of Senad Lulic, Patric and Lucas Leiva, who are all suspended, leaving Inzaghi with a problem on the flanks defensively.

Carlo Ancelotti looks set to stick with the 4-3-3 used by former Napoli manager, Maurizio Sarri, in his first game in charge. Orestis Karnezis looks to be the only summer signing to start here as David Ospina’s loan move from Arsenal on Thursday means this game comes too soon for him. Simone Verdi and Fabian Ruiz, Napoli’s two biggest incomings this summer, could feature from the bench.

Potential Lazio Starting XI: Strakosha; Luiz Felipe, Acerbi, Radu; Marusic, Parolo, Badelj, Milinkovic-Savic, Caceres; Luis Alberto, Immobile

Potential Napoli Starting XI: Karnezis; Hysaj, Albiol, Koulibaly, Mario Rui; Allan, Hamsik, Zielinksi; Callejon, Milik, Insigne

Head To Head

  • These two sides have played each other 39 times, with Napoli winning 16, Lazio winning 14 and nine draws.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Napoli have won five of the last six meetings, scoring at least three goals in four of those six.
  • Napoli are undefeated in 35 of their last 38 Serie A matches.
  • Napoli have won five of the last six away games against Lazio.
  • Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals in their last three games against Napoli in all competitions. 

Betting Odds

  • Lazio – 9/5
  • Draw – 13/5
  • Napoli – 6/4

The Verdict

Napoli came so close to the title last year and were one of the most exciting teams to watch in Europe and on their day, are capable of beating anyone. Lazio were also one of those teams everyone wanted to watch in Italy, especially with Immobile up-front scoring goals for fun, assisted more times than not than the brilliant Luis Alberto. Napoli will need time to get used to Ancelotti’s style of play and Lazio will fancy their chances but defensively they had issues last season and they don’t look to have solved them this summer and with the players Napoli have going forward, I think they might just have enough.

Recommended Bets

  • Milik to score anytime – 2/1 (Betway)
  • Napoli to win – 6/4 (Blacktype)
  • Over 2.5 goals – 19/25 (Marathon Bet)