Leeds v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 15/05/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Leeds United vs Derby County and provides us with his best bets for Wednesday’s Championship semi-final play-off second-leg by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -3.64pts
Leeds United vs Derby County Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 15/05/19
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Elland Road
- Channel: Sky Sports
After last weekend’s 1-0 win in Derby, Leeds return to Elland Road with the advantage and will look to secure their place at Wembley a week Monday.
Derby looked threatening and should have had a penalty but looked short of a goal scorer and without Martyn Waghorn in the side, goals have been in short supply.
Leeds will be without Kemar Roofe, who scored the goal at Pride Park and will likely have to play Patrick Bamford, who does not possess the same threat at Roofe in-front of goal.
Derby’s miserable away form adds to the challenge and Leeds have been relatively strong at Elland Road this season and at 1/10, Leeds are now big favourites to get themselves to Wembley.
Derby leak plenty of goals, especially on the road and Leeds have a strong defensive record at home. The odds all point to Leeds getting themselves to the final and you would have to say that you’d fancy them to do it with a win as well.
Kemar Roofe is out for the hosts through injury, but Patrick Bamford will take his place, most likely, as he returns from suspension. Adam Forshaw came off early in the first-leg and is therefore also out for Leeds. Pontus Jansson missed the first-leg tie through injury but is expected to return here.
Martyn Waghorn remains a doubt after missing last weekend’s tie and Jack Marriot could be recalled in his place.
Potential Leeds Starting XI: Casilla; Ayling, Cooper, Jansson, Dallas; Phillips; Hernandez, Klich, Shackleton, Harrison; Bamford
Potential Derby Starting XI: Roos; Bogle, Keogh, Tomori, Malone; Mount, Johnson, Holmes; Wilson, Marriott, Lawrence
Head To Head
- Leeds have won the last three meetings and have only lost twice at home to Derby in the last seven years. The H2H reads 37 Leeds wins, 33 Derby wins and 16 draws.
Key Stats & Facts
- Leeds have won their last three games against Derby.
- Derby have failed to win nine of their last 10 away matches in the league.
- Leeds – 3/4
- Draw – 3/1
- Derby – 4/1
The injuries to both sides leading men – Kemar Roofe for Leeds and Martyn Waghorn for Derby – weakens the attacking threat here and I do think this will be another low scoring encounter, much like the first-leg.
There is little to suggest that Derby can turn this around, such is the state of their away record in the league this season. They have failed to win in nine of their last 10 away matches in the Championship and have only managed seven wins in 23 league games on the road this campaign.
They have averaged the concession of 1.4 goals per game on the road and BTTS has landed in 14 of those 23 away games (60%) and they have managed just three clean sheets on their travels. Given they are a goal down as well, their chances are shortening.
They have been made 4/1 underdogs for the game and that looks a fair price given the circumstances, but I just cannot see them going to Elland Road and turning this around.
Leeds’ performances at home this season have been pretty good. They have lost just five games at Elland Road all campaign, three of which coming after Christmas. They have conceded 20 goals at home in 18/19, so just under a goal per game and they have already beaten Derby twice this season.
I can’t see there being many goals and given that Derby will have to push for it late on, I think that Leeds will have enough to get another 1 or 2-0 nil win here and get to Wembley.