Liverpool v Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 11/12/18
Chris Millas (@ChrisMMillas) previews Liverpool v Napoli and provides us with his best bets for Tuesday’s crucial Champions League tie by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Liverpool v Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 11/12/18
- Time: 20:00
- Venue: Anfield
- Channel: BT Sport
It’s d-day at Anfield on Tuesday night as Liverpool and Napoli battle it out for a place in the knockout stages of the Champions League.
A 1-0 win for Liverpool will be enough to guarantee qualification for the last 16, however, should Napoli score then The Reds will need to win by at least two goals. A draw for Napoli would be enough to see them go through – a win will guarantee top spot of Group C.
Liverpool enter the game off the back of an impressive 4-0 win away to Bournemouth on Saturday which saw them move top of the Premier League. Star man Mohamed Salah grabbed the headlines with a hat-trick and looked to be back at his dazzling best.
While the home side have endured a fantastic start to their league campaign this term, they have struggled in Europe.
Admittedly, The Reds have won both of their Champions League home ties (3-2 v PSG and 4-0 v Red Star) but have lost all 3 away (1-0 v Napoli, 2-0 v Red Star and 2-1 v PSG).
Under Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool are unbeaten at Anfield in the Champions League (W7-D2-L0) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Meanwhile, Napoli also ran out 4-0 winners at the weekend at home to second-from-bottom side Frosinone which saw Arkadiusz Milik bag a brace.
The Partenopei have had an impressive start to the season under new manager Carlo Ancelotti, with just 2 defeats in 20 games, 1 of which was away to the hands of juggernaut’s Juventus.
Interestingly, Napoli have failed to win any of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, conceding 2 goals in 4 of those 5 games.
Recent form would suggest both sides will be full of confidence for the game on Tuesday night which is set up to be a fascinating encounter.
Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Joe Gomez are out for the home side.
Vlad Chiriches and Simone Verdi are out for the away side.
Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Alisson, Robertson, Dijk, Matip, Alexander-Arnold, Wijnaldum, Henderson, Milner, Mané, Firmino, Salah
Potential Napoli Starting XI: Ospina, Rui, Koulibaly, Albiol, Maksimovic, Ruiz, Hamsik, Allan, Callejón, Insigne, Mertens
Head To Head
- Liverpool – 2
- Draws – 1
- Napoli – 1
Key Stats & Facts
- There has been over 2.5 goals scored in 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 games in the Champions League.
- Napoli are unbeaten in their last 5 Champions League ties.
- Liverpool did not achieve a single shot on target in their 1-0 defeat to Napoli in October; the first time this had happened in a Champions League match since February 2006.
- Liverpool have been knocked out at this stage of the Champions League in 2 of their last 3 campaigns.
- Liverpool – 4/6
- Draw – 7/2
- Napoli – 9/2
I feel bookmakers are slightly underrating a Napoli side who not only beat Liverpool in the reverse fixture, but also held their own both at home to PSG in November and away back in October where they were minutes away from leaving Parc des Princes with all 3 points.
I’m therefore keen to avoid the outright markets and focus my attention elsewhere.
Liverpool will need to attack from the off and we can expect them to enjoy the lion’s share of possession, which should lead to corners.
Liverpool -2 on the corner handicap is available at even money and is a bet that has landed in both of Liverpool’s home ties in the Champions League this season. Napoli also lost the corner 6-2 in Paris.
I’m also keen on one other bet.
Based on the permutations, the tie is still likely to be in the balance come the final stages of the game which means we can expect both sides to pushing for a goal.
When we combine both teams, a goal has been scored in the last 15 minutes in 5/10 games in the Champions League this season. Furthermore, it is a bet that has landed in 6/9 home games in the Champions League under Jurgen Klopp.
Based on the above, odds of 10/11 for the ‘Time Of Last Goal’ to be between 76 minutes and full time look good enough to take for me.