Football specialist and pro-punter Dave South (@LockupTipster) provides us with his selections for this week’s #MagicMark feature.
Magic Mark – Week 5
We managed to get two from three on our last outing, assisted with Liverpool winning to nil, which gave us a small but pleasing profit.
Post international break could be a little risky for punters, as complacency, injury and slackness could all be excuses and factors going into this match day.
We begin over in North London where Palace make the relatively short, but traffic ridden journey where they look to upset Spurs and will see some support at 8/1 to get the job done. We have seen many derbies end in upsets and this could be a thriller.
Spurs went into the International break with an end to end game against Arsenal. The result meant that Spurs patchy form continued with just four wins from the last sixteen league encounters. The last time the pair met, was Spurs first match in their new home. Palace have been fairly difficult to net against, having conceded just twice. However, Spurs play quite the free-flowing football, which should open up and expose the Palace defence.
Looking at the vibe of the game could accost us from pocketing a victory here, as we required over one goal. Adopting BetVictor for our three selections this week, one punt, which took our eye was the over 1.5 goals selection and also both sides to bag four or more corners each. Spurs three from four games have resulted in two goals or more, with Palace just the one. As a firm believer in balance of probabilities, this is not a justification for taking this element of the bet, but London derbies can generally throw the form book out the window.
The two meetings last season equated to 26 corners, although the recent individual form for Palace ma not support this, the quality of the opposition will need them to buck their ideas up. Spurs have averaged ten team corners at home this season, with Palace at 2.5. With such a small sample, I am willing to take the risk on this one and look for dividends by 5pm.
Second up we head to Brighton, where I fancy the visitors earmarking this with upsetting the one side taking the glory. Burnley have been okay on the road, netting in both encounters and will see the hosts as a place to get something from the game. The hosts have conceded in one of their home games, and lost the other, which was to South Coast rivals Southampton in their last encounter.
Both teams to score is a pick them on the coupon and feel neither team can settle for a no score draw. It may land up a score draw, but let the players fight this out. With both sides from the off seen as two that might struggle should not give too much away. However, on the side of positivity encourage both sides to go for this and could be a repeat of last season’s fixture, where this would have landed.
We head to Carrow road for the last selection, where Manchester City are as short as 1/7 to win the game, with a home side at 14/1, which in todays world is a pretty huge price.
Norwich will look for damage limitation here after a disastrous performance in their last encounter before the break. What a worse time then having one of the best sides in Europe visiting on a potentially humid Saturday evening from the East. Norwich have a fairly young side, especially at the back and will feel up to the challenge. The odds compilers have City at a very short almost certain 1/33 on not to lose the match (1/150 at Ladbrokes) with Norwich by no means eyebrow raising 5/1 to avoid defeat.
Norwich will create some chances, but may be shutdown by the City defence. This may increase in probability in the event City take a commanding lead and take the foot off the gas, which is always a dangerous move when going for the win to nil, which we are.
When a team is 1/7 and you are getting a price above even money not to concede, this always has to be considered. City are 50% in keeping clean sheets early on, but when you have City on the handicap needing to win by three or more at the same price, big George a 2-0 correct score busts the coupon. With a trip to Ukraine in Champions League match day one will be a good fitness game to boost their campaign in midweek.
The win and both to score has been considered but at best priced 5/4 compilers give nothing away and relies on the home side netting.