Man City v Southampton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 04/11/18
Dave South (@LockupTipster) previews Manchester City v Southampton and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s 15:00pm kick off by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Manchester City v Southampton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 04/11/18
- Time: 15:00
- Venue: Etihad Stadium
- Channel: N/A
Manchester City will be backed by the crowds as bankers as they look to add another three points to their growing tally. With Southampton a BIG 33/1 is partially a result of their inability to score as of late, and City have become more consistent at the back.
You will see a Southampton side attempting to go for damage limitation here, so may not see the flourish of goals layers expect. However, if you want a way in to this game you will need some faith in the handicap markets, which do not give much away from analysing.
Starting with Manchester City; Danilo made his first Manchester City appearance since September in Thursday’s 2-0 win over Fulham in the EFL Cup, while Fabian Delph also returned from injury in the EFL Cup triumph.
Ilkay Gündogan and Eliaquim Mangala are both closing in returns but weren’t deemed fit enough by Pep Guardiola in midweek. Kevin De Bruyne suffered another knee injury late on against Fulham and has been ruled out for up to six weeks with ligament damage, while Nicolás Otamendi has not been able to train due to a minor injury.
Brahim Diaz scored a brace against Fulham but is not expected to retain a starting berth this weekend, with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero expected back up front. Fernandinho, David Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Aymeric Laporte, Benjamin Mendy, Bernardo Silva and Kyle Walker will also return for City this weekend.
Southampton team news: Mark Hughes has a clean bill of health meaning Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and Charlie Austin are fit for the away side.
Southampton have kept successive clean sheets so Mark Hughes does not need to make any changes at the back, but Hughes may play an extra midfielder in what will be a very difficult game for Southampton.
Potential Man City Starting XI: Ederson, Walker, Kompany, Laporte, Mendy, Silva, Fernandinho, Silva, Mahrez, Sterling and Aguero
Potential Southampton Starting XI: McCarthy, Bertrand, Hoedt, Stephens, Soares, Redmond, Hajbjerg, Romeu, Lemina, Elyounoussi and Inga
Head To Head
Man C 4-1-1 (Last six)
Key Stats & Facts
- Manchester City’s record of a high goal tally has seen three or more goals land in 20/23 home games.
- Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in their last six Premier League matches.
- Manchester City have won their last six at home.
- Southampton have failed to score in their last five matches in the Premier League.
- Manchester City have won seven of their last right home matches against Southampton in all competitions.
- Manchester City – 2/17 Unibet
- Draw – 41/4 Marathonbet
- Southampton – 33/1 BetVictor
On few occasions in the Premier League do we see any side at a whopping 33/1 to win the game in a three-way outcome, and this suggests how cock-sure layers are, or in other words how much of an upset is good news for them, if City fail to win.
City are priced in such a way backers will look for other ways into this game, whether via the handicap markets, goals or goal scorer punts. Briefly touching on handicap markets, you will be hard pushed to find evens for Manchester City to win by three goals or more in either the European or Asian Handicap markets.
Similarly, on the goals market you will find no bigger than 1/3 on over 2.5 goals on the game boosted to 17/20 with Betfair for over 3.5 goals.
Manchester City have kept six clean sheets in a row in the Premier League, last conceding in the competition at the start of September. Pep Guardiola’s side haven’t lost to English opposition in a competitive match since April.
Southampton have also shown some defensive solidity of late, keeping clean sheets in their last two. However, they are yet to get going at the other end of the pitch, failing to score in their last five in the league.
Southampton have scored in five of their last six matches at the Etihad, which should give them some confidence heading into Sunday’s fixture, although an inability to score at present does not help.
Dissecting the stats and taking stock of this, Southampton have struggled to score in recent games put City at 4/5 with BoyleSports to win to nil. With Manchester City so short to score just one goal it pays to check related markets to the win to nil and see very few routes in. One thing I can say is, that either team shouldn’t break a habit of seemingly a lifetime, ergo, City keeping clean sheets, and Southampton’s goals drying up.