Napoli v Juventus Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/03/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Napoli vs Juventus and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -1.78pts
Napoli v Juventus Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 03/03/19
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: Stadio San Paolo
The top two meet this Sunday evening, as Napoli host the Champions at the Stadio San Paolo, knowing anything but a win here would almost certainly hand the Bianconeri an eighth successive title.
The gap currently stands at 13 points and with the Old Lady’s record, a 16-point lead would be insurmountable, so Napoli know they have to win this to stand any chance.
However, it does look for all money that Juventus will not let a lead like this slip, especially as they are still yet to lose a league game this season. They have dropped just six points all campaign and whilst they have struggled outside of the Serie A this season, their league form is quite remarkable.
Napoli are in very good form, however, especially at home. They have won 10 of their 13 home league games this season, as well as being undefeated in their last 18 Serie A games at the Stadio San Paolo.
These two sides possess the two best defences in the league and both managers are likely to have their strongest back-lines out there on Sunday. Napoli have conceded just seven league goals at home this season, whilst Juve have conceded just seven on the road.
Juventus have won 11 of their 12 away Serie A games this season and have won to nil in seven of those. Napoli have kept a clean sheet in eight of their 13 home league games as well.
Napoli are likely to make a couple of changes from the side that thumped Parma last weekend, as Faouzi Ghoulam will come in for Elseid Hysaj at left-back and Lorenzo Insigne will return to the starting side in place of Dries Mertens.
Massimilliano Allegri will again rotate for this game, as game winner from the weekend, Paolo Dybala, will return to the attack and Miralem Pjanic will come in for Federico Bernardeschi in midfield. Joao Cancelo will slot back into right-back after venturing into the front three against Bologna and Giorgio Chiellini will replace Daniele Rugani at centre-half.
Potential Napoli Starting XI: Meret; Malcuit, Maksimovic, Koulibaly, Ghoulam; Callejon, Allan, Fabian Ruiz, Zielinski; MiIik, Insigne
Potential Juventus Starting XI: Szczesny; Cancelo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Alex Sandro; Bentancur, Pjanic, Matuidi; Dybala, Mandzukic, Ronaldo
Head To Head
- These two have played 45 games between them, with Juventus winning 23 of those, Napoli winning 12 and 10 draws. Napoli haven’t beaten Juventus in the league at home since 2015 and the away side in this fixture have won just four times in the last 23 league matches.
Key Stats & Facts
- Juventus have won 23 of their last 26 Serie A matches.
- Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 14 Serie A matches.
- Napoli are undefeated in their last 18 home matches.
- Napoli have kept a clean sheet in their last five league games.
- Napoli – 29/20
- Draw – 9/4
- Juventus – 23/10
Based on both of these two sides form of late in the league, they are very difficult to split. Napoli have not lost at home this season (10/13 wins), Juventus have not lost at all and have won all but one of their away games in the league so far (11/12).
Napoli have conceded just seven goals at home and just 18 goals in total, whilst Juve have conceded just seven goals on their travels in the league and just 15 in total. Therefore, this is a game where goals are unlikely, given how good the two defences are, so I think that is the most likely play here.
Juve have been far convincing in their games this season in all competitions and you would not want to oppose Napoli given their brilliant record at home. When both sides stats clash like this, the obvious bet to go for is the draw and given that the draw and under 2.5 goals is almost the same price as the draw, 9/4 on the match to end level looks good enough here.
Juventus have an all or nothing Champions League game in midweek and given their lead in the Serie A, they will have one eye on that game and a draw here would suit them. Napoli have drawn two of their home games this season by a 0-0 score-line and I think a repeat of the same score-line could be worth a small poke.