Value bet alert: Bookies seem to be sleeping on Southampton's four game goal-streak meaning an Over 2.5 Goals bet could be the way to go.
All of Southampton’s last four games have seen four goals, so this has all the makings of a goal fest, yet bookies don’t seem to have clocked on – bet365 has Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (52.4% implied probability) for their clash with Wolves.
That’s near enough evens, but if you’d backed this market in their last 10 matches, you’d have won nine times. Sounds like serious value to us.
By comparison, Wolves games have hit Over 2.5 Goals in just half of their last 10, which better justifies those odds.
But with Southampton’s defence leaking goals like a chocolate teapot, the stats still suggest this market is far more likely to land than not.
Saints have endured a nightmare 2024-25 Premier League campaign, and relegation is looming large.
Rock bottom with just 9 points, they’re a full 8 points adrift of their nearest rivals, Leicester City and Ipswich Town, who sit on 17.
A relegation battle often sparks a late-season surge, and Southampton will be desperate to avoid the drop.
Having only climbed to the Premier League via the 2024 playoffs, the prospect of an immediate return to the Championship should be all the motivation they need.
Wolves aren’t out of danger either, sitting just above the drop zone in 17th with 23 points.
Both Ipswich Town and Leicester City could easily leapfrog them before the season’s out.
Factor that motivation alongside Wolves’ -19 goal difference and Southampton’s staggering -48, and clean sheets look highly unlikely.
Not sold on Saints? Back up your bet with Wolves to win at 1/1 – whack a tenner on the double at bet365, and you’re looking at a tidy £28.18 return if it comes in.
