Nottingham Forest v Derby Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 25/02/19
EFL expert Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Nottingham Forest v Derby County and provides us with his best bets for Monday night’s clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.
Nottingham Forest vs Derby County Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 25/02/19
- Time: 19:45pm
- Venue: The City Ground
- Channel: SkySports Football
Monday night sees two fierce rivals meet in a match that promises to be a feisty affair under the lights.
It was a tight affair in the reverse fixture at Pride Park with the game ending 0-0, it was a dirty game though with both sides picking up 3 cards a piece. Both sides are in quite inconsistent form and the bookies have priced it up accordingly, giving slight favouritism to the home side.
Martin O’Neil has seen a couple of wins, a few draws and defeats since his arrival. Forest are seeing any possibility of the play offs slowly slip away from them and the clubs’ owners will be frustrated that one of the antepost favourites for promotion are likely to finish mid-table.
Frank Lampard has seen his Derby side go well in the cups however the heavy fixture schedule seems to have had an impact on their league form. They have won just 3 of their last 11 in the Championship and the injury Mason Mount picked up against Accrington was bound to have some kind of impact.
If you delve into the data Derby have overachieved this season, their xG conceded is the same figure as their xG, both at 1.1 per game on average. Each of the teams from 16th to 20th have a better xG ratio than the Rams. So why are they defying the data?
Well, most of is it down to the quality of long range strikes from Liverpool loanee Harry Wilson. He is their top scorer and the quality of chances he gets are quite low but it’s to his great credit that he manages to score so many from distance.
Michael Dawson, Tobias Figueredo and Matty Cash are doubts for the hosts. Ben Watson and Saidy Janko are likely to come back in to the fold.
Scott Carson and Mason Mount are out for the visitors. They will have a late fitness check on winger Tom Lawrence.
Potential Nottingham Forest XI: Pantillimon, Janko, Milosevic, Benaloune, Robinson, Watson, Colback, Osborn, Lolley, Murphy, Grabban.
Potential Derby County XI: Roos, Bogle, Keogh, Tomori, Cole, Holmes, Huddlestone, Bryson, Wilson, Waghorn, Marriott.
- Nottingham Forest – 6/4
- Draw – 12/5
- Derby – 2/1
It’s hard to separate these two and the added spice of it being a rivalry means it could be another tight encounter. The last game between the pair ended all square and a repeat is available at 12/5 which looks a good play, especially considering it’s the biggest price of the three in the 1X2 market. Derby have drawn 5 of their last 11 in the league and Forest have drawn their last two games.
With it likely to be a fiery match up I’m looking to get two players who like a card in a double. Ben Watson and Craig Bryson both to be booked is available to back at 14/1 using Betfair’s ‘Same Game Multi’ feature.
Both play central midfield which is the most booked position and if it’s scrappy it could be a game dominated in the middle third. Watson has 6 yellows to his name despite only starting 10 games; he’s back in the fold under O’Neil after being out of favour with former gaffer Aitor Karanka.
Bryson has also received 6 yellows this season and could’ve had more. He averages 1.5 fouls per game and that’s likely to be higher given the rivalrous nature of this game. With them both being up against each other in the middle of the park it looks worth a go at the price.
Finally I’m going to have a punt in SkyBet’s request a bet and that’s for Harry Wilson, Jack Marriott, Lewis Grabban and Joe Lolley all to have 1+ shots on target at 3/1.
Lolley and Grabban are top of the shots chart for Forest, Wilson and Marriott are top of the same metric for Derby. Grabban and Marriott come alive in the box whereas Wilson and Lolley like to pick the ball up in space outside the box, cut inside and take plenty of shots. There will be a reliance from both sides on these players to make the difference on Monday night.