Patriots v Bears Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 21/10/18

Patriots v Bears Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s crucial NFL showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 21/10/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Soldier Field, Chicago
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

This game has all the making of being a really interesting game. The Bears defence is really good and the Patriots offence is really good. On the other hand the Patriots defence and the Bears offence is shaky. The eyes are going to be on the game when the Patriots offence is on the field but the key to the game might be when the Bears offence is on the field. If the Patriots shut that Bears offence down it relieves a ton of pressure from Brady and co. against that defence. However, I like the chances that the Bears can score 20 or more points in this game.

The Patriots have struggled on the road this season, averaging just 15 points per game and losing both of them. However, in those games the Patriots were short-handed at the wide receiver position. Now they have their favourite receiver in Julian Edelman and a new threat in Josh Gordon. It is not to say the Patriots would have won those games but this offense is a different beast, which has averaged over 40 points per game the last two weeks.

The key for the Bears defence will come in stopping the Patriots receivers at the line of scrimmage. If they do not then Brady’s receivers will be able to get a release and Brady can get the ball out of his hand quick. If he can do that then he can neutralise Khalil Mack and this pass rush. For the Bears to win this game Mack and co. need to get to Brady. It is going to be an intriguing chess match of a game.

Team News

Marcus Cannon has been missing from Patriots practice this week with concussion. This is crucial as he will serve as one of the guys primarily responsible for keeping Mack away from Brady. A number of Patriots were limited in practice this week but none are deemed serious at this point.

Khalil Mack is considered day-to-day. At this stage I do expect him to play in one of the Bears biggest games of the season at home. That is the most major issue for the Bears with all of the limited guys from practice this week expected to play Sunday.

Head To Head

  • The Patriots are 9-3 all-time against the Bears.
  • The Patriots have won the last four games between the two teams dating back to 2002.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Singe getting Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon in this offence the Patriots average over 40 points a game.
  • On the road the Patriots have scored just 30 points in two games and are 0-2.
  • At home the Chicago Bears are scoring 36 points per game on average and allowing an average of just 13.5 points per game (In contrast, the Bears are allowing 23 points per game on the road).

Betting Odds

  • New England Patriots 7/10
  • Chicago Bears 11/8

The Verdict

It is not often a team goes on the road and is favourite, especially against one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, that is the case this week as the Patriots are favourites by 2.5 points. With Khalil Mac limited and the Patriots offense clicking I expect them to come out on top. In addition, home dogs have had a lot of success this season and that usually balances itself out over the course of a year. I do not think the home dog comes through in this game.

In addition, with Mack limited and the Patriots defense inconsistent at best the over is a good bet in this game. The Patriots are an outdoor cold weather team so they should not suffer from the same issues other visiting teams will to Chicago. The same reasoning goes behind betting the over on touchdowns at 5.5.

The Patriots' struggles against tight ends this season should see Trey Burton have a successful day. The Patriots focused extra attention on Travis Kelce last week and shut him down. I do not expect them to focus as heavily on Burton this week and he should have a shot at finding the end zone. The Patriots gave up three touchdowns to tight ends in Week 5 so if you are feeling brave you could also go for Burton to score two touchdowns in this game.

Recommended Bets

  • New England Patriots -2.5 – 10/11 (BoyleSports)
  • Total points over 49.5 – 21/20 (Betfair)
  • Over 5.5 total touchdowns – 1/1 (SportingBet)
  • Trey Burton touchdown – 2/1 (Skybet)
  • Trey Burton two touchdowns – 16/1 (Skybet)