Southampton v Chelsea Betting Preview | 14th April
In our Southampton v Chelsea betting preview, we look at team news, potential line-ups, stats and facts, popular bets and more for the Saturday lunchtime fixture.
Southampton v Chelsea Betting Preview
Venue: St Mary’s
Channel: SkySports MainEvent
Chelsea were held to a 1-1 draw at home to West Ham last week, a game in which we successfully backed West Ham to get something. The Blues’ seemingly have nothing to play for and that’s mirrored in their performances, they lack an in form striker, players minds are elsewhere and the manager ultimately knows his summer fate. It’s a cocktail of factors that make them a team to back against for the remainder of the season, especially at odds on quotes. Sure, they have the quality but do they have the right mindset physiologically at this point in time?
Southampton are an anomaly in the fact that their underlying performance data and chance creation is actually one of the better in this league, however they find themselves in serious danger of relegation to the Championship. Mark Hughes’ side were unfortunate to come away from the Emirates with nothing last week, a game that on the stats they probably shaded, positives could be taken though and it was a big improvement on their previous game at West Ham. One of those positives is the fact they got on the scoresheet twice courtesy of their two strikers Shane Long and Charlie Austin, hopes will be pinned on Austin to fire the Saints to survival and it’s time for their strikers to take authority.
On the Expected Goals Southampton are ranking as a mid table team, it’s purely a case of chance conversion and the profligacy they’re displaying in front of goal that leaves them sitting in the bottom three. Ever wondered why Southampton are always priced up shorter than other teams in and around them? Bookies seem to be going off their xG statistics and they’re predicting them to get it together at some point.
Chelsea are deemed unbackable in my book with their current form and lack of a strong will to win whereas Southampton need the points much more and their league standing is not reflective of their quality. Odds against is available on Saints to avoid defeat here and that looks a bet all things considered. One feature of Saints’ approach play is their overlapping full backs and this results in crosses into the box and corners, this leads me to another angle taking my fancy and it is Southampton to win the corner match bet which is available at 11/8. Saints are averaging over 5 corners a game and the onus is on them to get something out of this given their tough fixture run-in until the seasons climax.
The Saints’ defender Jack Stephens was sent off in injury time last weekend and will miss out through suspension. Mario Lemina and Steven Davis are doubts.
David Luiz remains sidelined for Chelsea and David’s Zappacosta is a doubt.
Potential Southampton Starting XI: McCarthy, Cedric, Hoedt, Yoshida, Bertrand, Romeu, Højberg, Ward-Prowse, Tadic, Boufal, Austin.
Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Courtois, Moses, Christiansen, Rudiger, Azpilicueta, Alonso, Kante, Fabregas, Hazard, Willian, Morata.
Head To Head
- As expected Chelsea tend to have the upper hand in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings with Southampton.
- Chelsea to win – 17/20
- Southampton ‘Double Chance’ – 42/41 (888 sport)
- Southampton to have the most corners – 11/8 (William Hill)