Spain v Russia Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 1st July
Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) previews Spain v Russia and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s last 16 game, analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Spain v Russia Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 01/07/18
- Time: 15:00
- Venue: Spartak Stadium
- Channel: BBC
Hosts Russia kicked-off their 2018 World Cup campaign in impressive fashion, seeing off Saudi Arabia and Egypt 5-0 and 3-1 respectively. They were outplayed by Uruguay in a 3-0 loss in their final Group A match.
If we delve into Russia’s performance, it is less convincing than meets the eye. Against Egypt, the two-sides were evenly matched before an own-goal in the second-half. After that, the game opened up. Anyhow, Russia lost both the expected goals, total shots, and shots-in-the-box count on that occasion.
Even against Saudi Arabia, it’s plausible Stanislav Cherchesov’s outfit benefitted from circumstance. The tournament curtain-raiser was played the day after the end of Ramadan, so the Green Falcons’ preparation could have been hampered.
Moreover, the Saudi Arabian squad could well have been spooked by the occasion, given the majority had never played in front of camera’s, let alone beyond their domestic leagues and in-front of an 80,000-seater stadium on the world-stage. This thesis is reinforced through the fact Saudi Arabia looked more comfortable in their closing two games.
Spain topped Group B without really showing their best. Nonetheless, they’ve given themselves a cracking shot at going deep in the tournament. Bear in mind things could have been worse with manager Julen Lopetegui’s departure on the eve of the tournament.
Alan Dzagoev has returned to training. Igor Smolnikov is suspended after his sending off versus Uruguay.
Potential Spain Starting XI: De Gea; Carvajal, Pique, Ramos, Alba; Busquets, Thiago, Iniesta; Silva, Costa, Isco
Potential Russia Starting XI: Akinfeev; Fernandes, Ignashevich, Kutepov, Zhirkov; Gazinskiy, Zobnin; Samedov, Golovin, Cheryschev; Dyzuba
Head To Head
- Spain are unbeaten in all six meetings with Russia. The duo drew 3-3 in a friendly last November.
Key Stats & Facts
- Spain have scored in 23 consecutive matches since Euro 2016.
- Russia have kept just one clean sheet in 13-games.
- Spain 8/13
- Draw 3/1
- Russia 5/1
It’s difficult to see beyond Spain here. They boast superior quality, and the data suggest they’ve been good value for their results thus far this tournament. We can take them -1 on the Asian Handicap at a generous 23/20. This sees our stake void if they win by the single goal, with a winner paid with a victory of any greater margin. Since 1998, 32.5% of last 16 World Cup ties have been won by two or more goals. Behind maybe Belgium and Japan, this is probably the biggest mismatch of this World Cup’s last 16 stage.