US Open 2018: Women’s Semi-Finals Betting Preview & Tips

US Open 2018 Women’s Semi-Finals Betting Preview & Tips

Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marchCF96) looks ahead to Friday’s women’s US Open semi-final matches between Serena Williams v Anastasija-Sevastova and Madison Keys v Naomi Osaka and provides us with his best bets.

US Open 2018: Women’s Semi-Finals Betting Preview & Tips

Friday sees the US Open women’s semi-finals take place as Serena Williams takes on Anastasija-Sevastova while Madison Keys has been drawn with Naomi Osaka. So what are the best betting angles?

Serena Williams v Anastasija-Sevastova

The first of the semi-final match-ups sees the all-conquering Serena Williams take on the surprise package of this tournament, Anastasija-Sevastova. The World number 18 from Latvia has gone no further than the second round in any of this season’s majors and this is her first appearance in a Grand Slam semi-final, after beating Sloane Stephens in the quarters. Serena has cruised through the rounds this tournament, dropping just the one set so far in her five matches. Serena has won three of the last five US Open titles but was knocked out at this stage in both of her last visits to this major and will be wary of an opponent who has impressed so far with wins over the likes of Elina Svitolina and Sloane Stephens in the past two rounds.

These two have never played each other before so there is an element of unknown in terms of picking out a bet here. Serena is the clear favourite at 2/7 with Sevastova out at 18/5 and it would be unwise to go against the American, given how much she has dominated women’s tennis and how rarely she loses in a major. Sevastova is appearing in her first semi-final at this level, so you would expect a few early nerves, which could be where we could find some value in this match. Serena normally starts quickly, so I quite like under 8.5 games in set 1, which is 9/5 with Unibet. This bet has landed in three of Serena’s opening five sets so far and given we fancy her to win this match relatively comfortably, we don’t think Sevastova will get too much of a look in and a 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 opening set score line would win us the money here. 

Madison Keys v Naomi Osaka

The second semi-final at this year’s US Open in the women’s draw sees two young stars take the stage, as American Madison Keys faces the Japanese number one, Naomi Osaka. Keys has three years on her opponent and has a bit more experience going deeper in Grand Slam tournaments, which is why she is made the slight favourite for this match. Keys has had a good tournament so far, dropping just the one set in her five matches and looked too strong in her last two matches, both of which came up against seeded players in Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro. She is known for being slightly erratic at times and being still at a young age, her temperament can sometimes fluctuate quite dramatically. Naomi Osaka is just 20 years of age and this is her first ever appearance at a major semi-final but she has so far shown no signs of inexperience or pressure. She has also dropped just the one set so far and only once has her opponent won more than three games in a set in any match so far, other than the one set she dropped in the fourth round.

The betting for this one has Keys at around 8/11 for the win, with Osaka priced at around the 6/5 mark. It looks close on paper and I think we can back a close game here as well with the match going to 3 sets priced at 10/7 with MarathonBet. Both players look evenly matched, so the prospect of a tight game looks to be in store but, if you had to, you would have to fancy Keys to win outright in the end given she has experienced semi-finals in majors before. You would not want to bet against Osaka here, however, so it looks best to bet on a tight match.

Recommended Bets 

  • Serena Williams v Anastasija-Sevastova – Under 8.5 games in set 1 – 9/5 (Unibet)
  • Serena Williams v Anastasija-Sevastova – Serena Williams to win 2-0 – 8/11 (MarathonBet)
  • Madison Keys v Naomi Osaka – Three sets in the match – 10/7 (MarathonBet)
  • Madison Keys v Naomi Osaka – Over 20.5 games – 4/6 (Betway)