Villa v Birmingham Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 25/11/18

Aston Villa v Birmingham City Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Aston Villa v Birmingham City and provides us with his best bets for Sunday's Second City derby by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.

Aston Villa v Birmingham City Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 26/11/18

  • Date: 25/11/18
  • Time: 12:00pm
  • Venue: Villa Park
  • Channel: SkySports Football

It's another local encounter in the Championship this weekend with the second city derby taking centre stage on Sunday.

Gary Monk has been one of the most impressive managers in the league this season in my opinion. His Birmingham side are unbeaten in 12 of their last 13 games, a remarkable feat and largely deserved.

The former Swansea man had his hands tied in the summer in terms of recruitment. The Blues were placed under a transfer embargo due to financial irregularities and that meant he had to rely on his coaching and man-management skills to get the best out of what he's got.

He's settled on an old-school 4-4-2 and it's proving mighty effective, the resurgence in form of strike duo Che Adams and Lukas Jutkiewicz has been a welcome aid to their success thus far. They've got 8 and 9 goals so far this term respectively, their importance is further highlighted when you see that no other player in the roster have more than a single strike to their name.

Hosts Villa have had a topsy-turvy time so far this campaign. Fans disgruntlement over the style of football employed by Steve Bruce saw him moved on and Dr Tony Xia moved for the highly regarded Dean Smith from divisional competitors Brentford.

It was an appointment that was agreeable with many, his sides have always played attractive, attacking football which is conducive to high chance creation. It's fair to say his tenure this season has been mixed. An impressive win at Derby being the highlight, however losses at Millwall and QPR are cause for concern.

I do think long-term it is a move that will work for the Villa but given Birmingham's lack of losses this season do the home side warrant odds-on quotes? I'm not so sure.

Team News

John McGinn and James Chester should shake off knocks to play for the home side.

Jota is an injury worry for the Blues. Craig Gardner is likely to fill in central midfielder for his brother Gary who is ineligible due to being on loan from Villa.

Potential Aston Villa Starting XI: Nyland, El Mohamedy, Chester, Tuanzebe, Hutton, Adomah, McGinn, Hourihane, Grealish, Bolasie, Abraham.

Potential Birmingham Starting XI: Camp, Colin, Dean, Morrison, Pedersen, Maghoma, Gardner, Kieftenbeld, Mahoney, Adams, Jutkiewicz.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Birmingham have seen their last 4 games see BTTS land.
  • Aston Villa have scored in 5 of their last 6 games.
  • Aston Villa have scored in their last 20 championship home games.

Betting Odds

  • Aston Villa – 10/11
  • Draw – 13/5
  • Birmingham – 15/4

The Verdict

I do think Aston Villa are probably the most likely winners here but shorter than even-money on them to come away with three points makes little appeal.

Both Teams To Score has been priced up at 10/11 and that looks a nice angle in. The visitors have a pair of red hot strikers on their books and Villa pretty much always score at home.

I'm also personally going to have a go on a flyer of a bet for a bit of fun. It's a 128/1 shot when using Betfair's ‘Same Game Multi' which is Tammy Abraham and Lukas Jutkiewicz To Score, Alan Hutton and Kristian Pedersen to be booked.

Abraham is the main striker for the hosts, he has a good scoring record in this league and Dean Smith's style means he will get chances. We've mentioned the form Jutkiewicz is in, 9 goals to his name this season and he's a major threat in the air.

Alan Hutton has been booked 3 times so far this season and historically the Scotsman is good for a card, his direct opponent here will be Jacques Maghoma who's a handful. Hutton is a right back by nature but is likely to be on the left with Neil Taylor not fully fit. Pedersen has been booked 4 times this season and will be up against one of Albert Adomah and Yannick Bolasie who are both pace merchants. Despite the Danes strong start to the season he could have his hands full here.

Recommended Bets

  • Both Teams To Score – 10/11 (Betfred)
  • Tammy Abraham and Lukas Jutkiewicz To Score, Alan Hutton and Kristian Pedersen to be carded – 128/1 (Betfair – Same Game Multi)