Football specialist Sam Langston (@Samlan98) provides us with an in-depth betting preview of the 2019/20 Bundesliga season and delivers us with his best bets.
2019/2020 Bundesliga Ante-Post Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
Borussia Dortmund ran Bayern Munich close in 2018/19 but it was the Bavarians who came out on top once more to claim their seventh consecutive Bundesliga title.
3/10 quotes on Niko Kovač’s side look short enough in the outrights but I’m not so set on BVB at 9/2 to go one better either. Ultimately, I think there’s better value to be had outside of the outright market.
The first selection I’m going to recommend is backing RB Leipzig to finish in the top 4. At 8/11 (Bet365), this may appear short on initial impressions but with it being priced at a best 4/7 elsewhere, it appears to hold excellent value.
Die Roten Bullen enjoyed an excellent season under the watch of Ralf Rangnick in 2018/19. The veteran boss built his side on a solid defence that conceded a league low 29 goals; this achieved a ‘best of the rest’ finish for the Saxony club behind top two Munich and Dortmund.
Since then, Rangnick has taken a back seat and been replaced by one of Europe’s brightest, young bosses, Julian Nagelsmann. The 32-year-old worked wonders in his three-and-a-half season stint at TSG Hoffenheim – he notably guided them to back-to-back fourth-placed finishes, with the first of those earning the club an inaugural spot in the Champions League.
Nagelsmann is renowned in Germany for his high pressing, free-flowing style and Hoffenheim’s recent league performances are testament to his attacking approach. Despite finishing ninth last term, Hoffenheim were the third-best performers in the Bundesliga according to the xPoints metric. This is common territory for Nagelsmann, whose side’s have always been up there on merit, placing fifth and fourth in the same metric across the previous two campaigns.
Nagelsmann seems the perfect fit to nurture a Leipzig side full of young, exciting talent. If he can hold onto star man Timo Werner amid interest from Bayern Munich, there is no doubt that his side can comfortably secure a Champions League berth.
At the opposite end of the table, Paderborn (4/7) and Union Berlin (4/6) are the bookmakers’ hot favourites to suffer relegation.
However, history suggests that we should swerve such short-priced, newly-promoted sides, with 48 out of the last 70 (68.57%) Bundesliga newcomers avoiding immediate relegation.
As such, I think there’s reason to attack some of the bigger prices within the market.
I was immediately drawn to SkyBet’s 5/1 on Fortuna Düsseldorf to be relegated.
I very much struggle to see where Fortuna’s goals will come from this term. They’ve lost 20 in departing duo Dodi Lukebakio and Benito Raman and are yet to sign anyone who has proven they can replicate those kind of figures.
Other relegation contenders possess forwards who have previous when it comes to scoring in the Bundesliga. Namely, last season’s 2. Bundesliga champions Cologne have Anthony Modeste; Mainz have Jean-Phillipe Mateta; Freiburg have Nils Petersen; and Augsburg have Alfreð Finnbogason.
Friedhelm Funkel’s side did superbly well to finish as high as 10th last term but with questions surrounding their attacking capabilities this time round, they look overpriced to suffer the drop.