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# The prediction of Football Results

### 01.  Are football matches predictable?

Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance level, of both teams.

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### 02. What is chance and what may be calculated in football?

In the Bundesliga a typical outcome of match is determined of coincidence by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.

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### 03. Does Bayern have the best conversion of chances on the league?

Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about the same conversion of chances.

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### 04. Are home wins in Football really more common than away wins?

Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.

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### 05. How many goals are scored in a match on average?

Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the number of goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.

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### 06. Should you bet on high wins or losses?

Rather not. 46 % of all wins are based upon a one-goal-margin.

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### 07. Is „draw“ a good football bet?

No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By implication 75% of matches have a winner!

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### 08. Are away wins really less common?

Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% of matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.

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### 09. Is there a connection between the progression of the season and the amount of goals?

Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on average. So: Bet on higher results!

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### 10. Why does KickForm use the goals difference instead of the points as the most important measure?

The goal differente of past matches is especially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams.

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### 11. What about the goalscoring opportunities?

Goalscoring opportunities are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.

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### 12. Does money really score goals?

The market value of a team as determined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.

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### 13. How do you calculate the performance level of a team?

A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal difference that a team scores against an average opponent)

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### 14. How reliable are the predictions during the course of the season?

The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The longer the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunities display the performances of teams.

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### 15. Which role does chance play?

A football match is dominated by effects of coincidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.

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### 16. Why is the goal difference so significant?

Without effects of coincidence, the difference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.

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### 17. What fraction has the coincidence of a match in the goal difference?

The goal difference is determined by effects of coincidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.

### 18. Does the performance level of a team vary significantly?

Fluctuations of performance levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare

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### 19. Can football teams really have a streak?

There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“

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### 20. Shouldn’t goalscoring opportunities be taken into account?

In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective goalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.

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### 21. What about promoted teams, the Bundesliga rookies?

The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predetermined. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.

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### 22. What do you need for the perfect champion-prediction?

With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can come closer to the perfect prediction of the second half of the season..

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### 23. Does the better team always win?

No. In fact only in half of the cases the best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.

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### 24. Is there really such a thing as bogey teams?

No. Statistically, there are no bogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect is under 10%.

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### 25. Do you know how many stars are in the universe?

Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let you know another rime.

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