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Who will become world champion?

New scientific calculation: World Championship title defense possible for Germany - Brazil is top favorite on the World Cup title!

Press Release: Münster, Germany, 06.06.2018

According to the KickForm simulation Brasil is one of the top favorites for the World Cup title and can win the cup with a 34% chance. Anything but reaching the round of 16 would be a huge surprise for Brazil - with 94% probability, the "Seleção" should survive the group stage. The probability of reaching the semi-final is still a good 74%. The quarter-finals are expected to be France against Uruguay (win France), Brazil against England (win Brazil), Germany against Belgium (win Germany) and Spain against Argentina (win Argentina).

The science team around mastermind Prof. Heuer (book: "The perfect tip") has reached deep into the box of tricks to also provide good forecasts for the outcome of the World Cup. During the football season, KickForm delivers very good predictions for the major European leagues, and the tip recommendations mostly have hit rates well above 70%. For the World Cup, the sophisticated statistical tools of the scientists had to be adapted to the new data for the national teams. In an elaborate simulation, the numbers were calculated 100,000 times and have just been published on It was predicted for all 64 games - from the group stage to the final - the probabilities for victory, draw and defeat. In addition, the probabilities for each team were calculated for the title "World Champion 2018" and for reaching the final rounds.

Anything but reaching the round of 16 would be a huge surprise - with 90% probability "The Team" should survive the group stage. The likelihood of reaching the semi-finals is still a good 45%, where on 11.07 will probably come to a clash between Germany and Argentina. Only the chance for Brazil on the title is higher with 31%. Other aspirants to the 2018 World Cup title are Spain (15%) and France (7%). The teams of Ronaldo and Messi each have only a 6% chance of winning the title.

The complete simulation of the 2018 World Cup with the individual games can be found at