Who will be Football World Champion? What is the probability for my team to move into the World Cup final and win the title? How do the individual World Cup games go and who survives the group stage?
The KickForm predictions are based on a statistical method for predicting football matches developed by the physics professor Heuer of the University of Münster. In a total of seven steps, the result of a game is predicted. To predict the World Cup, the complex analysis will use the Elo World Ranking as a measure of the performance of each team.
KickForm chose this method as the basis, as Prof. Heuer's predictions proved to be particularly accurate. In a comparison with the odds of betting operators it could be proven that the predictions for this model were better than those of the bookmakers.
How to calculate the World Cup.
1. ELO value as a measure of performance To record the power, the Elo world ranking is used. The most well-known is the FIFA World Ranking List, but much more meaningful is the Elo World Ranking. For example, victories over Andorra or Spain are equal in the FIFA ranking, and the amount of victories does not matter. In the Elo World Ranking, on the other hand, a win against a strong team is much more important than a weaker one. And a sovereign 5-0 victory brings more points than a close 2: 1. 2. Determine team strength Next, the performance of each team is calculated. For this, the respective Elo value is calculated in relation to the average of all teams. 3. Calculate the mean goal differences An important step in the prediction of European and World Championships is the choice of the conversion factor of Elo differences to goal differences. We chose this factor in such a way that the range of actual goal difference during the last European and World Championships matched optimally our forecast. 4. Consider the typical number of goals From the history of international tournaments, the typical number of goals per game is known. This is an average and we expect to score 2.6 goals per game on average. 5. The coincidence A team shoots a goal with a certain probability per minute. This probability is chosen to give the correct mean. The result is like dice. When rolling six times, the dice is rolled on average once. But depending on luck or bad luck can come even six times or not once the 1 - but the probabilities are all known. On this basis (Poisson distribution), the probabilities for all game outcomes can be recorded, for example, nine percent for a 2-1 win over Germany against Spain. 6. The simulation of the World Cup 2018 With 100,000 simulations of the European Championship, the outcome can be predicted. The tournament mode with the small number of group matches and the subsequent knockout mode makes it possible that not only the best team will be European champions. The KickForm team has played through the full European Championship and calculated the probabilities for each game and team.