Lionel Messi Ballon d’Or Odds 2026
Messi is an outsider in the current Ballon d’Or winner market despite being one of the 30 players officially nominated for the award.
His case is unusual. Few players can match what Messi achieved individually at the World Cup, but the leading contenders can point to their own performances alongside major success in European club football.
| Selection | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | Winner |
1.53
120% up to €600
€600
|
| Harry Kane | Winner |
2.10
120% up to €600
€600
|
| Kylian Mbappé | Winner |
17.00
100% up to 1 BTC
1 BTC
|
| Lionel Messi | Winner |
21.00
100% of Your 1st Bet Back
1st Bet Back
|
Odds sample collected from Oddschecker on 6/10/2026
That helps explain why Messi is an interesting outsider rather than one of the shortest-priced players in the market. His individual numbers are exceptional, but voters must weigh them against players competing for Europe’s biggest club trophies.
Will Lionel Messi Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?
Messi has a credible case for a ninth Ballon d’Or, particularly when his performances for Argentina are combined with what he achieved for Inter Miami.
He scored eight goals and provided four assists across Argentina’s eight matches at the 2026 World Cup. Only Kylian Mbappé, with 10 goals, scored more during the tournament. Argentina eventually finished as runners-up, but Messi’s individual contribution ensured he remained central to their title defence.
His club season adds considerably more weight than the World Cup alone.
Messi led Inter Miami to their first MLS Cup in 2025 while winning the MLS Golden Boot with 29 goals. He also recorded 19 assists, giving him 48 goal contributions across 28 regular-season appearances, before being named MLS MVP for the second consecutive season.
The difficulty is comparing those achievements with the seasons produced by the leading Ballon d’Or candidates in Europe.
Messi has the individual numbers and a major club trophy, but Argentina’s defeat in the World Cup final denied him what could have been the defining achievement of his candidacy.
Our View
Messi deserves to be part of the conversation after an exceptional year. However, winning a ninth Ballon d’Or would still require voters to place considerable weight on his World Cup performances and MLS achievements compared with the European campaigns of the leading contenders.
No Expiry Date
Messi Stats for the 2026 Ballon d’Or
Messi’s numbers provide the clearest argument for his nomination.
He finished the 2025 MLS regular season with 29 goals and 19 assists in 28 appearances, becoming only the second player in league history to lead MLS in both categories during the same season. Inter Miami went on to win the MLS Cup for the first time.
He then produced another exceptional international tournament.
Messi played all eight of Argentina’s matches at the 2026 World Cup, scoring eight goals and providing four assists as the defending champions reached another final.
Those performances also took him to 21 career World Cup goals.
Why Messi Could Win the Ballon d’Or
An Exceptional World Cup
Major international tournaments can have a significant influence on the Ballon d’Or conversation, and Messi produced one of the standout individual performances of the 2026 World Cup.
Eight goals and four assists meant he was directly involved in 12 Argentina goals during their run to the final.
The tournament also added several records to his career. Messi moved to 21 World Cup goals and became the competition’s record holder for wins and assists, while appearing at a sixth World Cup.
Argentina ultimately falling short against Spain weakens the trophy argument, but Messi’s individual tournament remains difficult to ignore.
His Inter Miami Numbers
Messi’s Ballon d’Or case is not built solely on the World Cup.
He won the 2025 MLS Golden Boot after scoring 29 goals and finished level at the top of the league’s assist standings with 19. That gave him 48 goal contributions from only 28 regular-season appearances.
More importantly, Inter Miami converted those individual performances into silverware.
Messi captained the club to their first MLS Cup and was subsequently named MLS MVP for a second consecutive season, becoming the first player to achieve that feat.
That gives his candidacy both the individual output and club success that a Ballon d’Or challenge normally requires.
His Record in Major Tournaments
Messi’s performances in major tournaments have already influenced previous Ballon d’Or races.
His eighth victory came in 2023 after he captained Argentina to the 2022 World Cup, scoring seven times during the tournament.
The circumstances are different in 2026 because Argentina did not retain the trophy, but another prolific World Cup gives voters a substantial international performance to consider alongside his club season.
What Could Stop Messi Winning?
The biggest obstacle is the strength of the competition.
Messi’s numbers compare well with almost anyone, but several of his rivals have spent the same period competing in the Champions League and Europe’s leading domestic competitions.
That creates a difficult comparison between dominance in MLS and performances at the highest level of European club football.
Argentina’s World Cup final defeat is another important factor. Messi scored eight goals during the tournament, but he does not have a second consecutive World Cup trophy to provide an obvious centrepiece for his Ballon d’Or campaign.
Had Argentina won the final, the discussion around his candidacy would likely look considerably different.
Instead, voters must balance Messi’s extraordinary individual output, an MLS Cup and a World Cup final against candidates who can present their own elite numbers alongside major European or international trophies.
That helps explain why Messi can have the statistics of a serious contender without necessarily occupying the same position in the betting market.
Messi’s Ballon d’Or Record
No player has won the Ballon d’Or more often than Lionel Messi.
He has collected the award eight times, winning in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023. His 2026 nomination is the 17th of his career.
His most recent victory followed Argentina’s triumph at the 2022 World Cup, where Messi scored seven goals as his country lifted the trophy for the first time since 1986.
Another victory in 2026 would therefore take Messi to nine Ballon d’Or awards and extend a record that already places him three ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo.
It would also be his first Ballon d’Or as an Inter Miami player and make his 2026 World Cup performance another major international tournament followed by the game’s biggest individual award.
Lionel Messi Ballon d’Or FAQs
Messi is available in the 2026 Ballon d’Or winner market, although prices can vary considerably between bookmakers. Check the live odds widget above for the latest prices before betting.
Yes. Messi is one of the 30 nominees for the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or and the only active MLS player on the shortlist.
Messi has won the Ballon d’Or eight times, more than any other player. His victories came in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2023.
Messi scored eight goals and provided four assists in eight appearances as Argentina reached the World Cup final. He finished the tournament with 21 career World Cup goals.
The 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony takes place on Monday 26 October at the London Palladium. It is the 70th edition of the award and the first ceremony staged in London.