For the bettor, the greatest challenge lies in predicting a football game as accurately as possible. However - is this even possible?
In his book „Der perfekte Tipp“ ("The Perfect Bet") Professor Heuer from Münster University (Germany) outlined certain parameters that display a high correlation between the prediction of football games and the actual results. You therefore need to examine these factors in order to create a forecast for the outcome of a match. What are these parameters?
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The decisive factor for predicting the outcome of a match is correctly evaluating the performance level of a team, as well as the circumstances of a match. Both are composed of various key figures and values. These 11 values, among others, are important in that regard. Let’s go through them in detail below:
A team that doesn't score goals cannot win. It will, at best, reach a draw. Therefore, the figure of goals scored is a decisive factor for the evaluation of a team and for placing your bet.
Goal difference is an important parameter. Many scored goals can only strengthen a team, if, at the same time, it doesn't concede too many goals. A team that scores an average of 3 goals but simultaneously concedes 4 goals doesn't win any points. A team that scores 5 goals every game and concedes 4 is weaker than a team which only scores 3 goals but doesn't concede any goals. For this reason, you should always take the average goal difference into account.
Apart from scored goals, goalscoring opportunities are also an important indicator. Only by creating goalscoring opportunities can a team score goals. Likewise, you need to consider allowed goalscoring opportunities, which can lead to conceding a goal and, consequently, lower the performance level of a team.
What good are 100 opportunities in a match if not one goal is scored? The Shot Conversion Rate refers to the effectiveness of shots at a goal taken, and can be calculated by taking the number of goals in a match and dividing them by the number of shots.
How often does a team have control of the ball? This is yet another equally important parameter when evaluating the performance level of a team – after all, only the team who has the ball can score a goal. Admittedly, some teams (especially weaker ones) rely not on possession, but on counterattack. However, such a strategy rarely pays off and is heavily dependent on the opponent’s performance.
How many kilometres do players of a team run on average? Through a high willingness to run, a team can create goalscoring opportunities and score goals. A good positional play is also vital to a team’s performance; nevertheless, without an appropriate willingness to run, a team cannot score a goal. Therefore, the total running distance of all players can also be an indicator for the performance level of a team.
How many corner and free kicks is a team awarded during a match? These variables greatly highlight a team's effort to score a goal, and are therefore important indicators for the performance level of said team. Relatively smaller factors like these create goalscoring opportunities and scored goals.
What is the current team value? A comparison between Bayern Munich and Augsburg shows that this can indeed be significant. While Bayern had a market value of 500 million Euros in the season of 2016/17, Augsburg’s team value only amounted to 60 million. This reflects the quality of individual players, and so the performance level of a team can be determined.
Even though, according to statistics, the Home advantage measured in goals has consistently decreased over the last 20 years, many teams perform distinctively better in front of their own crowds, and therefore get one or two points more at home. In figures, Home teams score 1.66 goals on average, while Away teams score merely 1.20 goals. Will all this in mind, you should take the Home advantage into account whenever placing a bet.
The total goals of Bundesliga matches vary and depend on the stage of the season. While at the beginning of a season a few more goals are usually scored, later on the quota of goals decreases and finds its low point between the 20th and 30th matchday. Towards the very end of the season it then increases rapidly and reaches its climax. The average amount of goals per match used to be 3 for a long time; nowadays it has, however, fallen to 2.8. This is also important information to keep in mind before you place a bet.
There are opponents against which a certain team loses (almost) during every match. Most of the time, it is impossible to determine the reason why this happens. Nevertheless, there might be factors such as tactical orientation, formation or expectations that can have a distinctive influence on the outcome of a game, regardless of the discrepancy of the actual performance level of each team.
Matchday circumstances can also have an impact on the performance level and the outcome of a game. If, for example, Bayern Munich has already been declared the German Champion due to an unbeatable margin of points just 3 matchdays before the end of the season, then this can influence the motivation, concentration and performance level of the team. Why should they make an effort to play to the best of their abilities if they have already won? Therefore, such matchdays can frequently lead to the weaker opponent winning the game. You should consequently take note of any extenuating circumstances surrounding the matchday in question when trying to predict the outcome of a match.
Apart from these 11 parameters, there are thousands upon thousands more variables which can carry a predictive value for the outcome of a Bundesliga match; in fact, new ones are added regularly. This means that more accurate forecasts can be made, even from a day-to-day basis.
Even though mathematically, every possible outcome of a football match has a certain probability of occurrence, and it is possible to calculate that probability with the help of various indicators, making a safe forecast for the outcome of a football match is impossible. This is because apart from every statistically quantifiable data, unforeseeable factors - like coincidence, intuition and emotion, as well as a sudden change of circumstances like refereeing errors or unusual pitch conditions - play a role. Although figures can add up to certain predictions on paper, reality can turn out to be completely different.
Having said the above, thanks to KickForm’s mathematical algorithm, we have managed to create scientifically sound and data-driven predictions. Our special and unique procedure takes into account new factors and results every day, thereby continuously optimising our already successful formula – allowing you to make better and more accurate predictions, and, of course, win more bets!
Since many football fans have their own expert opinion, we have made it possible for you to adapt our Football Formula according to any criteria you like, such as market value, possession, Home advantage, favourite team or weakness - without the need for any mathematical knowledge. The variables you decide to set will create a new forecast for a match. Like this, you can design your own Football Formula and begin (or continue) your journey towards becoming a betting expert! You also get in with the chance of making more precise predictions than those of bookmakers, allowing you to bet more successfully.