La Liga is back. Real Madrid and Barcelona unsurprisingly lead the latest La Liga winner odds, but is there value to be had elsewhere? Let’s take a look.
The 2025/26 season kicks off on Friday evening, and it’s shaping up to be one of the hottest title races for some time.
Last season, Barcelona were able to fend off bitter rivals Real Madrid to win their 28th La Liga title, amassing 88 points in the process.
It was, for the most part, a tactical masterclass from Hansi Flick, curating one of the most feared front lines in Europe, bagging 102 goals as Yamal, Lewandowski, and Raphinha wreaked havoc.
For Real Madrid, the season marked the end of an era as they parted ways with legendary manager Carlo Ancelotti. They finished four points behind Barça in the league, but it was a (relatively) early exit from the Champions League quarterfinals that ultimately sealed his fate.
Atletico Madrid were a commendable third, with Simeone’s team once again proving difficult to beat. However, they failed to string together a run of wins that would see them challenge. Interestingly, they lost the same number of games as both Real and Barça, but with 10 draws, finished 12 points adrift.
The league's feel-good stories came from Athletic Club (4th) and Villarreal (5th), earning 70 points and a place each in this season's UEFA Champions League.
As the opening weekend approaches, we will look at the latest La Liga winner odds and see if anyone can dethrone either of the Spanish powerhouses for the first time since 2021.
Latest La Liga Outright Odds
We’ve trawled the best La Liga betting sites to find the latest outright winner odds for 2025/26.
| La Liga Winner | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 19/20 | Ladbrokes |
| Barcelona | 11/10 | bet365 |
| Atletico Madrid | 10/1 | BetVictor |
| Athletic Bilbao | 66/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Villarreal | 80/1 | BetVictor |
*Odds correct as of 11:00am 13/08/2025. Odds subject to change.
Real Madrid – Flawed Favourites as Alonso Era Begins
It’s a league that often comes down to fine margins, and Real Madrid were on the wrong side of Lady Luck last season, losing their title defence by two points.
The decision to relieve Ancelotti from his duties was no doubt a difficult one, even for a board as ruthless as Los Blancos, but it was the right one. When opportunities to take one of the game's brightest young managers, Xabi Alonso, come along, you need to take it and take it they did.
He will no doubt revert to the 3-4-2-1 system that served him so well at Bayer Leverkusen, utilising midfield box patterns, aggressive wing backs and a fluid back three or five, depending on whether in or out of possession.
The firepower is already there. Mbappe continued to bolster his La Liga stats, bagging 31 goals last season, with Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo (assuming he stays) playing key supporting roles across the front line.
Alonso has already attempted to address issues that left them susceptible to transitions, which hurt them so badly in 2024/25. Trent Alexander-Arnold will play a wide/central hybrid role, and Dean Huijsen comes in as a ball-play centre-half who is quick enough to press and hold a high line. Skills that are rare in 20-year-old CBs.
With La Liga winner odds of 19/20, they are (just) favourites to reclaim their crown this season. But the question is, does that offer value?
The short answer is no. We worry that the issues from last season will creep in again this season. Question marks remain around Alexander-Arnold’s defensive attributes, or lack of them, and asking Huijsen to come in at 20 years old from Bournemouth is a huge ask.
They will be close again, but we think the smart money lies in Catalonia.
Barcelona – The Value Play in the La Liga Winner Odds
For Barcelona, it’s more evolution than revolution. They were superb for large parts of last season, finding the back of the net 102 times with a +63 goal difference.
What was most impressive about Hansi Flick’s approach was creating a tactical identity. He blended the 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1 systems depending on the game, pressing high and dominating possession (66% per game).
There hasn’t been a ton of transfer activity, but then, there didn’t need to be. Roony Bardghji from Copenhagen looks like an incredible talent at 19, mooted by some to have an even higher ceiling than Lamine Yamal. Joan Garcia is the only other notable addition signed from Espanyol for £22 million and is an outstanding shot stopper, with ter Stegen rumoured to be on the way out.
The black cloud that sits over Barça is the off-field FFP/registration friction, limiting any further incomings. Injuries to key players mean that, if needed, plugging gaps in January would be difficult at best, so they’re relying on keeping a fit and healthy squad.
That said, their La Liga winner odds of 11/10 are still the value play this season. There’s too much quality in the team right now, and we love the way Flick has them ticking. With all the “what-ifs” around Real Madrid, this is the smart play for the 2025/26 season.
Atletico Madrid – Is This the Year El Cholo Closes the Gap?
Diego Simeone’s men are the dark horses for the La Liga title race. But then, they usually are.
Their La Liga winner odds of 10/1 highlight this as much as anything, and while they were impressive for large parts of 2024/25, their inability to put games to bed ultimately cost them a run at the league title.
They lost the same number of games as Real and Barça and conceded the second fewest goals (30) behind Athletic Club, highlighting how strong they are at the back.
To win it all, they will need to turn at least six of their ten draws from last season into wins. With just a single incoming so far in the transfer market (Giacomo Raspadori from Napoli), we don’t think they have the firepower to mount a sustained attack on the big two and even at odds of 10/1, this bet is a fade.
