As the dust settles on a crazy summer transfer window, we’re evaluating the winners and losers, club by club, to see who’s been playing 5D chess and who’s snapped up the next Ali Dia (IYKYK).
The Premier League’s financial pull has flexed more than Ronnie Coleman in a pair of Speedos. A total spend of almost £3.1 billion surpasses the previous record set in the summer of 2023 (£2.36 billion) by 27%. For context, the overall spend exceeded the combined totals from Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A.
Liverpool were the biggest culprits (£446.5 million outlay), finally investing that Coutinho money and breaking the British transfer record not once, but twice, bringing in Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen for £116.5 million, and Alexander Isak from Newcastle United for £125 million.
Chelsea was able to recoup a good chunk of Todd Boehly’s Monopoly money, smashing the record for most money received at £314.4 million. Meanwhile, across London, Arsenal had the biggest net spend at a negative £257 million.
But the question that remains is, who’s had the best window and more importantly, what have the bookies missed that we can take advantage of from some of the long-term football betting markets?
To find out, we’ve scored all 20 clubs out of ten and found a bet that looks great value for the season ahead. Here we go!
Best Season-Long Premier League Bets
We’ve taken the top three season-long bets from Premier League betting sites to bring you an acca paying £70 from just a £10 stake with bet365.
| Team and Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Liverpool to win the league | 9/10 |
| Brighton to finish in the top half | 4/6 |
| Sunderland to stay up | 6/5 |
*Odds correct as of 14:30 BST 03/09/2025. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Ranking Each Team's Summer Transfer Window
Arsenal: 9/10 – Top 2 Finish
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Zubimendi | £59.5m | Nuno Tavares | £4.3m |
| Eberechi Eze | £58.9m | Marquinhos | £2.6m |
| Viktor Gyökeres | £55.9m | Jakub Kiwior | £1.7m (loan) |
| Noni Madueke | £47.6m | Albert Sambi Lokonga | £0.3m |
| Cristhian Mosquera | £12.8m | Jorginho | Free |
| Christian Nørgaard | £9.9m | Kieran Tierney | Free |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga | £4.9m | Thomas Partey | Free |
| Piero Hincapié | Loan | Oleksandr Zinchenko | Loan |
| Max Dowman | Free (Academy) | Reiss Nelson | Loan |
It’s been a big summer for Mikel Arteta. His total spend since he joined the club has now surpassed £1 billion, and they are the highest net spenders this term, with a £257 million deficit.
But, they’ve bought incredibly well, with high-quality acquisitions like Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres and Martín Zubimendi. They’ve plugged weaknesses in the squad with top talent but have also made shrewd strategic additions to the wider squad, underlined by Christian Nørgaard and Noni Madueke.
Can they finally beat Liverpool? Probably not, but that’s more on Liverpool's additions than Arsenal.
Value bet: Top 2 Finish – 8/13 with Spreadex
Aston Villa: 4/10 – To Finish Outside The Top 6
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Evann Guessand | £25.5m | Jacob Ramsey | £38.4m |
| Victor Lindelöf | Free | Kaine Kesler-Hayden | £3.4m |
| Marco Bizot | Undisclosed | Enzo Barrenechea | £2.6m (loan) |
| Jadon Sancho | Loan | Leon Bailey | £2.6m (loan) |
| Harvey Elliott | Loan | Robin Olsen | Free |
| Lewis Dobbin | Free (End of Loan) | Philippe Coutinho | Free |
| Oliwier Zych | Free (Academy) | Leander Dendoncker | Free |
| Álex Moreno | Free |
Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) have restrained Unai Emery’s Aston Villa this summer in what looks like a pretty mediocre window. A failure to make the Champions League last season has resulted in just one significant permanent signing in Evan Guessand for OGC Nice, along with two decent loan deals for Jadon Sancho and Harvey Elliot.
Jacob Ramsey’s move to Newcastle United has allowed them to balance the books, but it’s a squad that’s lacking depth. It will take all of Emery’s talents to get Aston Villa back into Europe, but any hope of a top six finish feels a long way off.
Value bet: To finish outside of the top six 4/11 with William Hill.
Bournemouth: 7/10 – To Finish Top Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bafodé Diakité | £29.8m | Ilya Zabarnyi | £53.6m |
| Djordje Petrovic | £24.6m | Dean Huijsen | £53.1m |
| Ben Doak | £19.7m | Milos Kerkez | £39.9m |
| Amine Adli | £17.9m | Dango Ouattara | £36.4m |
| Veljko Milosavljevic | £12.8m | Jaidon Anthony | £8.1m |
| Adrien Truffert | £11.5m | Philip Billing | £4.3m |
| Álex Jiménez | £1.3m (loan) | Mark Travers | £3.9m |
| Daniel Jebbison | Loan | Luis Sinisterra | £2.1m (loan) |
| Max Aarons | Loan | Chris Mepham | £1.0m |
| Alex Paulsen | Loan | Joe Rothwell | £0.4m |
| Hamed Traoré | Loan | Neto | Free |
| Ben Winterburn | Loan |
Bournemouth have put on a masterclass at balancing the books and are one of the few that have a positive net spend this summer, banking over £63 million. There have been some big names left in Zabarnyi, Huijsen, Kerkez and Outtara, ripping the soul out of a very solid defence last season.
But they’ve bought well, and two signings in Bafodé Diakité and Djordje Petrovic look like real quality. They’ve also held on to Antoine Semenyo, which will be huge. They’ve got off to a great start, beating Spurs and Wolves, and pushing champions Liverpool all the way on opening day.
Value bet: Bournemouth to finish top half 9/10 with BetVictor
Brentford: 3/10 – To Finish Bottom Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dango Ouattara | £37.23m | Bryan Mbeumo | £65.22m |
| Antoni Milambo | £17.40m | Yoane Wissa | £55m |
| Michael Kayode | £15.23m | Christian Nørgaard | £10.09m |
| Caoimhín Kelleher | £12.89m | Mark Flekken | £9.57m |
| Romelle Donovan | £3.13m | Ben Winterbottom | Free |
| Jordan Henderson | Free | Ben Mee | Free |
| Reiss Nelson | Loan | Ji-soo Kim | Loan |
It could be a long season for Brentford. They’ve lost their best three players in Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and Christian Nørgaard, and haven’t adequately replaced them. Add in the fact that their brilliant manager, Thomas Frank, has gone to Spurs, and a 3/10 rating for their window might be generous.
They’re in from 5/1 to 3/1 to be relegated, and while we don’t think it will come to that, the only alternative is a bottom-half finish at 2/17. Little to no value to be honest, so we’d likely avoid for now, and keep an eye on their form and the relegation odds.
Brighton: 6/10 – To Finish Top Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charalampos Kostoulas | £30.1m | João Pedro | £54.8m |
| Maxim De Cuyper | £17.2m | Simon Adingra | £21.0m |
| Tom Watson | £10.3m | Julio Enciso | £16.0m |
| Diego Coppola | £9.5m | Pervis Estupiñán | £14.6m |
| Do-young Yoon | £1.7m | Valentín Barco | £8.6m |
| Olivier Boscagli | Free | Tariq Lamptey | £5.2m |
| James Beadle | End of Loan | Abdallah Sima | £3.9m |
| Amario Cozier-Duberry | End of Loan | Evan Ferguson | £2.6m (loan fee) |
| Carl Rushworth | End of Loan | Facundo Buonanotte | £2.0m (loan fee) |
| Eiran Cashin | End of Loan | Matt O'Riley | £1.7m (loan fee) |
| Malick Yalcouyé | End of Loan | Kjell Scherpen | £1.7m |
| Andrew Moran | From U21 | Odeluga Offiah | £1.4m |
Brighton continues to progress with their strategy of buying young talent, developing them and selling them on for a profit. João Pedro’s move to Chelsea was the biggest shakeup in the team, but they’ve recruited well again, with Charalampos Kostoulas brought in to replace him.
Maxim De Cuyper, Tom Watson and Diego Coppola all look shrewd buys and at good prices as the Seagulls bank another positive net spend. It’ll be another safe, if unspectacular season for Brighton, and a top half finish should be more than doable.
Value bet: Brighton to finish top half 4/6 with Ladbrokes.
Burnley: 5/10 – To Be Relegated
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lesley Ugochukwu | £24.68m | James Trafford | £31.2m |
| Armando Broja | £19.78m | Han-Noah Massengo | £2.58m |
| Loum Tchaouna | £13.03m | Dara Costelloe | £0.34m |
| Bashir Humphreys | £12.04m | Andréas Hountondji | £0.34m (loan fee) |
| Marcus Edwards | £8.6m | CJ Egan-Riley | Free |
| Quilindschy Hartman | £8.6m | Etienne Green | Free |
| Jaidon Anthony | £8.17m | Aaron Ramsey | Loan |
| Zian Flemming | £7.14m | Owen Dodgson | Loan |
| Max Weiß | £3.44m | Oluwaseun Adewumi | Loan |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | £3.44m | Shurandy Sambo | Loan |
| Florentino | £1.72m (loan fee) | Luca Koleosho | Loan |
| Axel Tuanzebe | Free | Michael Obafemi | Loan |
| Kyle Walker | Undisclosed (£5m) | Darko Churlinov | Undisclosed |
| Martin Dúbravka | Undisclosed | Benson Manuel | Loan |
Newly promoted Burnley have been busy; we will give them that. But will it be enough to keep them up? Lesley Ugochukwu was the most notable addition, breaking the club's transfer record to sign the highly-rated midfielder.
James Trafford’s move back to Manchester City will be a blow, but they’ve done well recruiting the services of veteran Martin Dubravka as a replacement. Armando Broja and Loum Tchaouna add quality to the ranks, but it will be a huge ask for them to stay up. A 5/10 window overall likely won’t be enough, and the bookies agree, with very little value in them to be relegated at 2/5.
Chelsea: 6/10 – To Finish in the Top Four
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro | £54.8m | Noni Madueke | £52m |
| Jamie Gittens | £48.5m | Christopher Nkunku | £36m |
| Alejandro Garnacho | £40m | João Félix | £30m |
| Jorrel Hato | £38.0m | Djordje Petrovic | £25.0m |
| Liam Delap | £30.5m | Lesley Ugochukwu | £24.68m |
| Estêvão | £29.2m | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | £24.64m |
| Dário Essugo | £19.15m | Renato Veiga | £21.07m |
| Mamadou Sarr | £12.04m | Armando Broja | £19.78m |
| Kendry Páez | £17.2m | Carney Chukwuemeka | £17.2m |
| Facundo Buonanotte | £2.0m (loan fee) | Nicolas Jackson | £14.2m (loan fee) |
| Caleb Wiley | End of Loan | Mathis Amougou | £12.47m |
| Carney Chukwuemeka | End of Loan | Bashir Humphreys | £12.04m |
| Marc Guiu | End of Loan | Kepa Arrizabalaga | £5.0m |
| Deivid Washington | End of Loan | Marcus Bettinelli | £2.06m |
A record £314 million was recouped by Chelsea’s transfer team after multiple windows of excess spending. It’s something that they needed to do to balance the books, and while the outgoings have been good, the incomings are a little underwhelming.
João Pedro and Estêvão are the two who catch the eye as real quality additions, and you could argue they’ve plugged gaps with Liam Delap, Jorrel Hato and Jamie Gittens. Compared to Arsenal and Liverpool, they’ve fallen behind in terms of recruitment, so a 6/10 window from us and not much value in the betting either, with a top four finish at 2/5.
Crystal Palace: 4/10 – To Finish Top Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yéremy Pino | £25.8m | Eberechi Eze | £67.5m |
| Jaydee Canvot | £19.78m | Odsonne Édouard | £3.7m |
| Borna Sosa | £2.3m | Luke Plange | Free |
| Walter Benítez | Free | Jeffrey Schlupp | Free |
The saving grace for Palace was that they retained the services of captain Marc Guehi. He looked set to join Liverpool, but Palace were unable to secure a suitable replacement. Eberechi Eze's big-money move to Arsenal helped generate a £23 million profit for the window, but it raises questions about whether Steve Parish has capitalised on the momentum from winning the FA Cup and Community Shield to drive the club forward.
As a window, it’s a 4/10. Yéremy Pino and Jaydee Canvot have come in, but they’re unknown quantities in the Premier League. They’ll do OK this season, but there are so many what-ifs around their window.
Value bet: 6/4 to sneak into the top half this season is the play for Palace.
Everton: 8/10 – To Finish Top Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Dibling | £35m | Youssef Chermiti | £8m |
| Thierno Barry | £27m | Neal Maupay | £3.4m |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | £25m | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Free |
| Carlos Alcaraz | £12.6m | Ashley Young | Free |
| Adam Aznou | £7.7m | Mason Holgate | Free |
| Mark Travers | £4.0m | Abdoulaye Doucouré | Free |
| Merlin Röhl | £2.0m (loan fee) | João Virgínia | Free |
| Jack Grealish | Loan | Asmir Begovic | Free |
An 8/10 window for Everton has that feel-good factor flowing after a move to their new stadium on Bramley-Moor Dock. The standout is, of course, Jack Grealish’s loan deal from Manchester City, creating some much-needed quality in the middle.
Just as impressive as those coming in are those who have left. Neil Maupay won’t be missed, and it was the right time to move on for the likes of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Ashley Young. If they can build the new stadium into a fortress, we don’t see why they can’t sneak into a top-half finish. Odds of 6/5 feel like it’s worth a punt.
Value bet: 6/5 for a top half finish.
Fulham: 4/10 – Bottom Haf Finish
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin | £34.6m | Andreas Pereira | £8.65m |
| Samuel Chukwueze | Loan | Martial Godo | £6m |
| Jonah Kusi-Asare | £3.44m (loan fee) | Carlos Vinícius | Free |
| Benjamin Lecomte | £0.43m | Steven Benda | Loan |
| Caleb Wiley | End of Loan | Luke Harris | Loan |
| Benjamin Lecomte | End of Loan | Willian | Released |
A pretty underwhelming window for Fulham by all accounts. A lack of funds to spend due to PSR, and a team that’s been fairly solid over the last 12-18 months. Will Marco Silva have wanted more in? Of course, but he’ll be OK with the deals that have been done.
Kevin is an interesting one, breaking their transfer record in a move from Shakhtar Donetsk. He’ll get goals and assists, but it’ll be tough to move the needle enough to get them to the top half. Couple that with the fact that there’s been quality added around them, and it’s another bottom-half finish with little to no value at 4/11.
Leeds: 5/10 – To Be Relegated
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Stach | £17.4m | Rasmus Kristensen | £5.2m |
| Noah Okafor | £16.4m | Sam Greenwood | £1.7m |
| Jaka Bijol | £15.4m | Junior Firpo | Free |
| Lucas Perri | £13.8m | Maximilian Wöber | Loan |
| Sean Longstaff | £12m | Mateo Joseph | Loan |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson | £10m | Joe Gelhardt | Loan |
| James Justin | £8.0m | Isaac Schmidt | Loan |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw | £5.1m | Largie Ramazani | Loan |
| Lukas Nmecha | Free | Darko Gyabi | Undisclosed |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Free | Josuha Guilavogui | Released |
| Charlie Crew | End of Loan | Charlie Crew | Loan |
| Sam Chambers | Free | Patrick Bamford | Released |
It’s been a difficult window for Leeds. They’ve invested heavily, with a negative net spend of around £91 million, but is the quality there? Anton Stach will be an excellent purchase in the middle of the park, and we, unlike many, think getting Calvert-Lewin on a free is a huge upgrade on the outgoing Patrick Bamford.
There are too many unknowns about the squad as to whether they will stay up. They’re 9/4 for the drop, and even though they’ve had a good start, they will at times struggle, and that famous home support will grow restless when they do.
Value bet: It’s a tentative one, but 9/4 for Leeds to be relegated is too big to shy away from.
Liverpool: 9/10 – To Win the Premier League
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak | £125m | Luis Díaz | £65.5m |
| Florian Wirtz | £100m (£116m inc. add-ons) | Darwin Núñez | £46m |
| Hugo Ekitiké | £69.4m | Jarell Quansah | £35m |
| Milos Kerkez | £40m | Ben Doak | £25m |
| Jeremie Frimpong | £29.5m | Caoimhín Kelleher | £12.5m (£18m inc. add-ons) |
| Giovanni Leoni | £26m | Trent Alexander-Arnold | £10m |
| Freddie Woodman | Free | Tyler Morton | £15m |
| Harvey Davies | End of Loan | Nat Phillips | £3m |
| Trey Nyoni | From U21 | Harvey Elliott | Loan (obligation to buy £35m) |
Just a cool £446 million spent by the current Premier League champions. Nothing to see here. In all seriousness, though, what a window it’s been. Sure, they’ve spent the world, but they’ve got the moon. They broke the transfer record twice, first with Florian Wirtz and then with Alexander Isak for £125 million.
Weaknesses in the squad from last season were spotted early, and they were plugged. It’s up there with one of the best windows of all-time on paper, and they are now shoe-ins to win the league this time around.
Value bet: Liverpool to win the league at 11/8 is a massive price, so get in quick.
Manchester City: 7/10 – To Finish Top Four
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Reijnders | £47.3m | James McAtee | £25.5m |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri | £31.6m | Yan Couto | £20.0m |
| Rayan Cherki | £31.4m | Máximo Perrone | £11.2m |
| James Trafford | £27.0m | Ederson | £12.0m |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | £25.8m | Manuel Akanji | £0.86m (loan fee) |
| Sverre Nypan | £12.9m | Kevin De Bruyne | Free |
| Marcus Bettinelli | £2.1m | İlkay Gündoğan | Free |
| Sverre Nypan | End of Loan | Kyle Walker | Undisclosed (£5m) |
| Jack Grealish | Loan | ||
| Scott Carson | Released |
Man City went big in January, so it’s not that surprising to see them a little more subdued this summer, albeit to the tune of around £170 million. There are some additions we like, such as Reijnders from AC Milan to replace the outgoing Kevin De Bruyne (if that’s even possible), and some we’re not so sure on, such as Rayan Aït-Nouri from Wolves, who feels like a bit of a panic buy from Guardiola.
Is it enough to challenge Liverpool? Probably not, no. But they’ll cruise to another top four finish, where it wouldn’t surprise us to see Pep call it a day. At 2/5 for the top four, there’s no value there, so it’s a swerve, for now.
Manchester United: 7/10 – To Finish Outside of the Top Six
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Sesko | £65.8m | Alejandro Garnacho | £40m |
| Bryan Mbeumo | £64.5m | Antony | £19m |
| Matheus Cunha | £62.5m | Rasmus Højlund | £5.2m (loan fee) |
| Senne Lammens | £18.2m | Victor Lindelöf | Free |
| Diego León | £3.44m | Marcus Rashford | Loan |
| Daniel Gore | End of Loan | Jadon Sancho | Loan |
| Ethan Wheatley | End of Loan | Jonny Evans | Retired |
| Chido Obi | From U18 | Christian Eriksen | Released |
Getting Sesko, Mbeumo and Cunha through the doors early sparked a flurry of excitement at Man United. It plugged gaping holes in the forward line, and they now look like they could be a dangerous force up top. Senne Lammens will come in to replace Andre Onana in goal, which should be a notable upgrade.
But for us, their most important position was in the middle of the park; an area they’ve been short in for a few seasons now. Not getting a defensive midfielder certainly hasn’t undone all the good work at the top, but heading into the season with an ageing Casemiro, a less than convincing Ugarte, and Mainoo, whom Amorim doesn’t see to rate, means it’s a good, not great window.
Value bet: 4/6 to finish outside of the top six is the value play here.
Newcastle United: 7/10 – To Finish in the Top Six
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Woltemade | £73.1m | Alexander Isak | £125m |
| Anthony Elanga | £52.8m | Lloyd Kelly | £14.8m |
| Yoane Wissa | £55m | Sean Longstaff | £12m |
| Jacob Ramsey | £39m | Callum Wilson | Free |
| Malick Thiaw | £30.1m | Isaac Hayden | Free |
| Aaron Ramsdale | £4m (loan fee) | Joe White | Loan |
| Antoñito Cordero | Free | Antoñito Cordero | Loan |
| Joe White | End of Loan | Martin Dúbravka | Undisclosed |
| Matt Targett | End of Loan | Odysseas Vlachodimos | Loan |
| Jamal Lewis | Released | ||
| Matt Targett | Loan |
There’s been more twists and turns than an episode of Byker Grove on Tyneside this summer, which ultimately led to Alexander Isak downing tools to get his British record-breaking transfer to Liverpool. He follows Lloyd Kelly, Sean Longstaff and Callum Wilson, amongst others, out the door as Newcastle look to rebuild for a gruelling Champions League campaign ahead.
Multiple targets have come and gone, but ultimately, Newcastle’s business has been good. Elanga, Wissa and Ramsey are proven Premier League quality, and Woltemade looks like he could be a world-class talent to replace Isak. All in all, a good window, but when you lose one of the best strikers in the world, good is about as well as they could have done.
Value bet: Newcastle at 13/10 to finish in the top six.
Nottingham Forest: 8/10 – To Finish Top Half
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omari Hutchinson | £37.32m | Anthony Elanga | £52.8m |
| Dan Ndoye | £36.12m | Danilo | £19.78m |
| Dilane Bakwa | £30.1m | Ramón Sosa | £10.75m |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo | £25.8m | Andrew Omobamidele | £9.03m |
| James McAtee | £22.0m | Matt Turner | £6.88m |
| Igor Jesus | £16.34m | Carlos Miguel | £4.73m |
| Nicolò Savona | £11.18m | Lewis O'Brien | £3.01m |
| Jair Cunha | £10.32m | Jonathan Panzo | Free |
| John Victor | £6.88m | Harry Toffolo | Free |
| Cuiabano | £5.16m | Josh Bowler | Free |
| Douglas Luiz | £2.58m (loan fee) | Tyler Bindon | Loan |
| Angus Gunn | Free | Marko Stamenic | Undisclosed |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | Loan | David Carmo | Loan |
For Forest, it was as much about who they could hold on to as it was who they could bring in. But not only have they been able to fend off Spurs for Morgan Gibbs-White, they’ve also invested smartly within the squad.
Omari Hutchinson, Dan Ndoye and James McAtee are standout additions to what was already a solid squad. They will be tough to beat this season, and for us, they’ve had one of the best windows in the league. But can they break into the top six? Probably not, so while we salute them, there’s no value to be had in the betting markets for Forest.
Sunderland: 10/10 – To Stay Up
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Habib Diarra | £27.1m | Jobe Bellingham | £26.2m |
| Simon Adingra | £21.0m | Tom Watson | £10.3m |
| Enzo Le Fée | £19.8m | Pierre Ekwah | £5.2m |
| Chemsdine Talbi | £17.2m | Nectarios Triantis | £2.1m |
| Brian Brobbey | £17.2m | Nathan Bishop | Undisclosed |
| Noah Sadiki | £14.6m | Adil Aouchiche | Loan |
| Granit Xhaka | £12.9m | Jenson Seelt | Loan |
| Nordi Mukiele | £10.3m | Niall Huggins | Loan |
| Omar Alderete | £10.0m | Patrick Roberts | Loan |
| Robin Roefs | £9.0m | Luís Semedo | Loan |
| Bertrand Traoré | £2.5m | Alan Browne | Loan |
| Reinildo Mandava | Free | Marc Guiu | End of Loan |
| Arthur Masuaku | Free | Nazariy Rusyn | Loan |
This must be the best window so far. Sunderland owners have rolled the dice and given their fans room for optimism. Let’s be honest, if they didn’t, that team from the Championship would sink faster than the Titanic, so the fact that Kyril Louis-Dreyfus has invested north of £150 million to try and stay up is highly commendable.
The only negative is the task that manager Régis Le Bris must make the team gel, but on paper, there’s a lot of quality. Habib Diarra, Enzo Le Fée (permanent deal), and Granit Xhaka are top-class additions to their squad. History shows that teams that spend have a greater chance of staying up, and we think Sunderland will buck the trend of all three teams going straight back down.
Value bet: Sunderland to stay up priced at 6/5 is the value play.
Tottenham: 7/10 – Top Half Finish
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavi Simons | £55.9m | Heung-min Son | £22.0m |
| Mohammed Kudus | £54.8m | Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | £11.6m |
| Mathys Tel | £30.1m | Bryan Gil | £5.1m |
| Kevin Danso | £21.5m | Alejo Veliz | Loan |
| Luka Vuskovic | £9.46m | Mikey Moore | Loan |
| Kota Takai | £5.0m | Min-hyeok Yang | Loan |
| João Palhinha | £4.3m (loan fee) | Alfie Devine | Loan |
| Randal Kolo Muani | Loan | Luka Vuskovic | Loan |
It’s been a mixed bag for Spurs this summer. The late addition of Xavi Simons looks like a good buy, but the jury is very much out on a strange £54.8 million move for Mohammed Kudus. One of the transfers of the season, according to The Athletic, is João Palhinha from Bayern Munich, and he will add much-needed solidity in the middle of the park.
After a 17th-place finish last season, they still look light, especially on the back of a season-ending injury for James Maddison. They receive an extra mark for appointing Thomas Frank, a world-class manager, but achieving anything more than a top-half finish is unlikely.
West Ham: 4/10 – Bottom Half Finish
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Fernandes | £37.8m | Mohammed Kudus | £54.8m |
| Jean-Clair Todibo | £34.4m | Nayef Aguerd | £19.8m |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | £18.9m | Edson Álvarez | £1.72m (loan fee) |
| Mads Hermansen | £17.9m | Emerson | £0.6m |
| Soungoutou Magassa | £14.6m | Aaron Cresswell | Free |
| Kyle Walker-Peters | Free | Vladimír Coufal | Free |
| Callum Wilson | Free | Danny Ings | Free |
| Igor Julio | Loan | Kaelan Casey | Loan |
An uninspiring transfer window follows a couple of dismal defeats for the Hammers to start the season. Losing Kudas to local rivals Spurs was a blow, but failing to replace him with proven quality makes us concerned for West Ham.
This is going to be a long season, and we can see Graham Potter getting the sack before Christmas. They should have enough to stay afloat, but there’s no value at 1/8 for a bottom-half finish.
Wolves: 3/10 – To Be Relegated
| Arrivals (Player) | Transfer Fee | Departures (Player) | Transfer Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen | £23.2m | Matheus Cunha | £62.5m |
| Tolu Arokodare | £22.4m | Rayan Aït-Nouri | £31.6m |
| Fer López | £19.8m | Fábio Silva | £19.4m |
| Ladislav Krejci | £19.4m (loan fee) | Gonçalo Guedes | £3.44m |
| Jhon Arias | £14.6m | Pablo Sarabia | Free |
| Jackson Tchatchoua | £10.8m | Nélson Semedo | Free |
| David Møller Wolfe | £10.3m | Chiquinho | Free |
| Nasser Djiga | End of Loan | Chem Campbell | Undisclosed |
| Mateus Mané | From U21 | Tommy Doyle | Loan |
Losing Cunha and Aït-Nouri has been a real kick in the you-know-whats for Wolves. Arguably, their two best players from last season are gone from a team that struggles for large parts. There’s so much pressure on the permanent signing of Jørgen Strand Larsen, who they also nearly lost in a late bid from Newcastle, that it might be the end of the road for this Premier League voyage.
One of the issues that they have is the unknown qualities of the players brought in. Arokodare, Lopez and Krejci have all commanded decent fees, but have yet to prove themselves on the biggest stage. If we compare their window to that of newly promoted Sunderland, there is no contest.
Value bet: Currently 9/10 to be relegated, and this price is dropping sharpish.
