Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain might both be taking two-goal leads into the second leg of their Champions League Quarter-final second leg matches. But this doesn’t necessarily mean that the ties are dead, and it certainly doesn’t mean that there are no betting opportunities as my tasty 8/1 acca goes to show.
TL;DR – My Tuesday Champions League Best Bets
| Market | Odds | Bookie | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Barcelona to win & BTTS | 9/5 | Betfred | 1 |
| Liverpool vs PSG: BTTS | 4/9 | bet365 | 1 |
| Liverpool vs PSG: Achraf Hakimi 2+ Shots | 13/8 | bet365 | 0.5 |
| Double | 8.9/1 | bet365 | 1 |
My wagers for Tuesday are based on predictions from Kickform and on information gathered through watching this season’s Champions League. I have also investigated the performances of the four teams domestically in order to back up my choices with data.
I looked at the odds on offer for teams to qualify, but with a two-goal difference in both ties I decided to avoid this. I was tempted with odds of 5/2 for Barcelona to go through. The Catalan giants are capable of running in three or four goals against anyone on their day. But I think that a two- goal advantage for Diego Simeone’s Atleti could just be too much for them.
Despite trailing PSG by two goals, you have to take into account the Anfield factor for Liverpool. But I feel that the Reds have consistently fallen short of the quality needed to beat PSG by two goals or more this season, so I decided to give this a miss too.
Instead, I simply looked at how each 90 minutes was likely to play out, based on what happened in the first leg matches.
No Expiry Date
Odds correct at 10:10 on 13/04/2026. Odds subject to change.
Atletico Madrid (2) vs Barcelona (0): Barcelona to win & BTTS
Barcelona went into the tie as clear favourites. But a combination of Hansi Flick’s side failing to score in the opening period and on the stroke of half-time, a red card for Pau Cubarsi, and a superb free kick from Julien Alvarez to give Simeone’s team the lead, changed all of that. Barcelona are good enough to travel to Madrid and turn it around, however, it is a big ask. I am backing them to win on the night, but I am also tipping the home side to score.
Kickform give the visitors a 69% chance of victory and I fully agree with this. Barcelona’s style is to attack anyway and, facing a two-goal deficit they will go straight on the offensive. And as good as Simeone is at setting up a team to be hard to break down, I am convinced Barca will score a couple and will come out on top on the night.
Kickform give a 62% chance of both teams scoring. Barcelona will leave gaps and Atleti have the pace and the intelligence to exploit these. In Atleti’s Champions League matches this season both teams have scored in 85% of the games and for Barcelona’s Champions League games both sides have found the net 82% of the time. In La Liga, the figures for BTTS are 61% (Barcelona) and 52% (Atletico). The data gives me confidence in this wager.
Liverpool (0) vs PSG (2): BTTS
I don’t think that Liverpool will turn the tie around, but I am backing them to give it a go. I thought (wrongly) that the Reds would score in Paris last week. And I am backing them to get on the scoresheet at Anfield on Tuesday. Kickform’s predictions point towards goals. They give a 63% chance of BTTS, a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals, and a 58% chance of an away win. Both teams have scored in 67% of PSG’s Champions League games this season. I think Liverpool will put them under pressure and will breach the visiting defence at least once. But I also back PSG to punish Arne Slot’s side on the break. Liverpool constantly leave space behind the fullbacks, and this will be exploited.
Liverpool (0) vs PSG (2): Achraf Hakimi 2+ Shots
As I said earlier, Liverpool can be exposed in wide areas. This was exaggerated in the first leg when they opted for a back three. I expect Slot to revert to four at the back on Tuesday, but this has been a defensive weakness for the Reds all season, whether they have fielded a three or a four. PSG are fantastic at hitting teams on the break and at attacking in wide areas with their attacking fullbacks playing a big part in this. Achraf Hakimi had three shots last Wednesday. He has averaged 1.69 shots per match in the Champions League and 1.76 shots per game in Ligue 1. Given that Liverpool have to chase the game, I expect him to get the chance to use his pace on the break, and I am backing him to get at least two shots away.
My 8/1 Double is Live
I put the two bets from the Anfield game into a bet builder and combined them with my wager from Atleti vs Barcelona to make a great little double at bet365, one of the best online bookmakers in the UK.
Champions League Quarter-Final Odds
Check out the odds for the Champions League quarter-final second leg games from the leading football betting sites in the UK.
