Graham Potter’s odds for the next Premier League manager to be sacked have plummeted from 6/1 to 2/1 in light of West Ham’s 3-0 opening-day defeat to Sunderland.
The market has a dismal outlook on Potter’s future at the London Stadium, where he has been in charge since January 2025 following Julen Lopetegui's dismissal.
His implied probability of being the next manager to leave his post has shifted from 14.4% to 33.3% after the Hammers failed to turn up against newly promoted Sunderland.
It’s a huge shift and a worrying marker, but given that we’re only one game into the season, is this an overreaction?
Next Premier League Manager to be Sacked Odds
BetVictor is one of the most active bookies for this market, and they were the quickest to act over the weekend. Here’s a breakdown of the odds and where Potter currently sits as the potential next Premier League manager to be sacked.
| Manager | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Potter (West Ham) | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Keith Andrews (Brentford) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Nuno Espírito Santo (Nottingham Forest) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Scott Parker (Burnley) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Vítor Pereira (Wolves) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Daniel Farke (Leeds) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Rúben Amorim (Manchester United) | 9/1 | 10% |
*Odds correct as of 10:20 BST 17/08/2025. Odds subject to change.
The Catalyst – Saturday’s Dismal Defeat to Sunderland
When Graham Potter arrived at West Ham, his role was to stabilise a club that was teetering on the edge of a crisis. It was a melting pot of players patched together by his predecessors, David Moyes and Julen Lopetegui, who looked disjointed and short of confidence.
In some respects, it was job done. A 14th-place finish and 18 points clear of the relegation zone meant that West Ham fans finished the season without cause for concern, at least, in terms of their Premier League status.
But the fanbase wasn’t enjoying what they were seeing on the pitch. They had the worst goal difference outside the bottom three, and even though the squad included talented players like Jarrod Bowen, Lucas Paquetá, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Tomáš Souček, they looked disjointed and lacked cohesion in the majority of games.
Saturday’s defeat to Sunderland wasn’t a smash-and-grab. The newly promoted team played West Ham off the park with high energy and man-to-man pressure. It was systemic, and Potter was helpless to stop it.
Granted, West Ham had their chances in the first half, and Potter lambasted his players after the game for not taking them. But this is an issue that has been a running theme during his reign, and eight months after his appointment, he is yet to find a solution.
Fans are, understandably, starting to worry. Already sceptical about his pragmatic playing style following his ill-fated Chelsea stint, they took to X (formerly Twitter) to voice their concerns, with multiple fan accounts calling for the manager to be sacked.
An overreaction, no doubt, but given the lack of transfer activity and a squad devoid of identity, if Potter can’t impose his philosophy at the club quickly, the hierarchy won’t hesitate to act, as they’ve done time and time again.
Does 2/1 for Potter to be the Next Premier League Manager to be Sacked Offer Value?
The short answer is, probably not. It feels like a knee-jerk reaction based on a poor performance at a game that, realistically, they should have got something from.
That said, the reality is that, if results don’t improve between now and the first international break in September, the pressure will only increase. We rarely see sackings prior to that, but the West Ham board won’t want to drag this out to be in a situation fighting for survival like they were in January 2025.
It’s also worth noting that Potter is under contract until 2027, and given that West Ham has already had to pay off Lopetegui just eight months ago, it’s an expense they could do without and likely couldn’t afford if they chose to strengthen the squad.
Right now, 2/1 is too short and based on a single performance, offering little value.
If Not Potter, then Who?
Brentford have undergone a massive upheaval in the summer. Manager Thomas Frank moved to Spurs, leading to the appointment of Keith Andrews, and have since sold Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Nørgaard, and Mark Flekken, with Yoane Wissa also set for a move away after refusing to train.
The Bees finished a highly respectable tenth last season, but with potentially three of their best players leaving, it looks like it could be a monumental task just to keep them in the league this season.
Keith Andrews is currently priced at 5/1 to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked, and given Brentford play Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Liverpool in their next nine fixtures, pressure will start to mount quickly.
It could be a race to the bottom for both Potter and Andrews, but as it stands, a fairer market would be a switch in the odds, with Andrews nearer 2/1. The next handful of games is already huge for both managers, but if results don’t go their way, the pair will be neck and neck for the chopping block.
