Monday Night Football travels to Wearside as the season's surprise package, Sunderland, takes on a Burnley side in the midst of a relegation scrap. The pair were two of the three teams promoted from the Championship last season and have had contrasting success so far, with Sunderland all but safe from the drop and Burnley fighting for their lives.
It’s been an incredible run for Régis Le Bris’ side, taking 33 points from 23 games and looking up, where most predicted they would struggle. Incredibly, they head into February as the only side unbeaten at home, winning six and drawing five from their 11 games.
Life back in the big leagues hasn’t been as fluent for Scott Parker’s Burnley. They head to the Stadium of Light in 19th place and winless in their last 14 games. It means they’re now 10 points adrift of safety and need to turn their fortunes around, and quickly, if they are to survive.
Sunderland vs Burnley Bet Builder Tips
Betfred is best priced with our Sunderland vs Burnley tips today, and is paying £59.20 for every £10 you wager.
| Market | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance | Draw or Burnley | 21/20 |
| Total Goals | Under 2.5 | 4/6 |
| Total Corners | Under 9.5 | 8/11 |
| Total Odds | 4.92/1 |
*Odds correct at 9:30am GMT on 31/1/2025. Odds subject to change.
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Bet 1: Burnley to Win or Draw (Double Chance)
On paper, the numbers don’t look good for Burnley. They haven’t won since beating Wolves at Molineux back in October, and the reality is that they are staring down an immediate return to the Championship, unless they can promptly improve.
But improving they are, albeit slowly. They’ve drawn five of their last seven and are starting to become extremely difficult to break down. Included in this set of results are points taken from Tottenham, Manchester United, Liverpool, Bournemouth and Everton.
Obviously, Sunderland’s home record is impressive, but these runs must come to an end at some point, and Burnley’s mini-resurgence could be the catalyst. The Black Cats’ adjusted expected points (xPTS) suggest they are massively outperforming their underlying performance, sitting 10.12 points better off than they “should”, with only Aston Villa having a higher differential (17.68).
But more worryingly for the Mackems is that their captain and midfield general, Granit Xhaka, will once again be missing from the team. They were utterly toothless last time out as they were battered 3-1 by West Ham and have now won just one game in their last seven (4D, 2L).
Burnley will be buoyed by the signing of James Ward-Prowse on loan to add some quality to their midfield, which could be a crucial battleground on Monday. Odds of 21/20 with the best online betting sites to, at worst, nick a point, looks good value.
Bet 2: Under 2.5 Goals
Sunderland’s problem, if you can call it that, has been a lack of goals. Only Forest (23) and Wolves (15) have scored fewer than the Black Cats, who have bagged just six goals in their last seven games.
This will be an area of concern for Régis Le Bris in the second half of the season, and if their xG does start to balance out, it could turn out to be a bit of a slog.
The numbers are in our favour for this to be under 2.5 goals on Monday night. 61% of Sunderland’s Premier League games have been under 2.5 goals (14 out of 23), the last five meetings between the two teams have all been under 2.5 goals, and no one has averaged fewer total goals per game than Sunderland in the league at just 2.17.
We’re getting 4/6 for the under 2.5 total goals in a game that looks nailed on to be a cagey affair.
Bet 3: Total Corners – Under 9.5
Sunderland’s total average corner count (8.39) is the lowest in the league. Their style of play is quite direct, and they don’t traditionally rely on wide players to get corners in the box. Their attacking metrics are also poor, so they never properly overrun teams with an overload of attacking territory.
Burnley’s total numbers are a little higher at 9.43, but this number is skewed slightly by the fact that they are often sitting deep for long periods in games. When you dig a little deeper and look only at their corners won, they average just 3.43 per game, which is the lowest in the league. And who’s one spot above them? You guessed it, Sunderland (3.57).
If you were feeling a bit braver, you could take 6/5 for under nine corners, but we’re adding a bit of padding to this and taking 8/11 for under 9.5 total corners to wrap up our Sunderland vs Burnley bet builder tips.
