McLaren head to the United States Grand Prix 2025 looking to end a run of three races without a win. But the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) won’t make it easy for them.
The American Grand Prix takes place from 17 to 19 October and promises a thrilling weekend of action. Here’s our full USA GP F1 2025 prediction, including betting tips and odds.
Formula 1 USA GP: Winner Odds
The last five races have produced four different winners. For the 2025 US Grand Prix, McLaren’s Lando Norris is neck and neck with Max Verstappen at the top of the market, and Oscar Piastri is making up the top three. Earlier in the season, the pecking order looked much clearer – but recent results have tightened things up. Here's a look at latest odds for the race from some of the best F1 betting sites.
| F1 USA GP Winner | bet365 Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 2/1 |
| Max Verstappen | 2/1 |
| Oscar Piastri | 12/5 |
| George Russell | 11/1 |
*Odds correct as of 12:15 BST on 17/10/2025. Odds subject to change.
The bookmakers give Norris and Verstappen roughly equal winning chances at around 33.3% (2/1 odds) each. After his victory in Singapore, George Russell has also entered the conversation, though his implied probability of back-to-back wins is only 8.3% (11/1 odds).
Our F1 USA Betting Tips
For the 2025 USA Grand Prix, we see Max Verstappen as the best bet – provided the Red Bull performs well. It’s worth waiting until after the Sprint or at least part of qualifying before placing a bet, but on a technically demanding track like Austin, the four-time world champion could once again leave the field in his wake.
Our Formula 1 USA GP Tips for a Spectacular Weekend
Bet 1: Safety Car During the Race – Yes
Odds: 2/1 (Betway)
A full Safety Car deployment looks more likely than not for the USA GP. In the past three editions of the race, the Safety Car has been called out twice. While Virtual Safety Cars are less likely due to COTA’s wide run-off areas, the opening sector of the track still carries plenty of risk.
The sharp uphill left-hander into Turn 1 has caused incidents before. Drivers on the inside line can gain positions, but contact is a constant danger. If debris needs clearing from the track, the stewards will likely call for a full Safety Car rather than a VSC.
Prediction: Safety Car – Yes. History, layout and first-lap chaos potential make this a smart mid-risk pick.
Bet 2: Red Bull to Win the Race
Odds: 2/1 (Betfred)
McLaren have not won in Austin since 2012. Lando Norris finished on the podium here in 2023, but apart from that, there’s been little to celebrate for the team at the United States Grand Prix. Recent performances suggest their technical edge has faded.
The signs have been visible since Zandvoort – Piastri and Norris no longer have a car that clearly outperforms the field. After leading by over 20 seconds in Hungary, they now trail by 19 seconds in Monza and 34 seconds in Baku.
With the Constructors’ title already wrapped up and Verstappen needing a miracle to take the Drivers’ crown, McLaren are unlikely to invest heavily in upgrades at this stage of the season, leaving the path clear for a Red Bull victory.
Prediction: Red Bull to win – 15/8. The data and form trends both point towards Red Bull stealing the show.
Bet 3: Verstappen to Seal Victory
Odds: 21/20 (bet365)
For much the same reasons that Red Bull look strong for the win, Max Verstappen is the clear favourite to deliver it for his team.
The four-time defending world champion has come out of the summer break in a determined fashion. Although he still trails championship leader Oscar Piastri by 63 points, there are plenty left on the table with six races remaining.
Three of those rounds include sprint races, each offering up to eight extra points for the winner – and this weekend marks the first of them.
While Verstappen has battled an unpredictable and often difficult Red Bull for much of the year, the team have continued to refine the car. The Dutchman’s consistency has paid off, producing two wins and two second places from the last four races.
Over that stretch, Verstappen has amassed 86 points, compared to 52 for Piastri and 39 for Norris – a gap that will give the McLaren drivers plenty to think about.
He couldn’t quite catch Mercedes’ George Russell in Singapore, traditionally one of his weaker circuits, but crucially still finished ahead of both McLarens.
At Austin’s Circuit of the Americas, Verstappen has claimed three victories in the last four editions, and his short odds reflect just how well suited he is to this track. The market’s respect for the reigning champion is fully deserved.
