It’s Week 11 of the NFL, and the season is positively flying by. Our sharp betting report is live as we look to build on yet another successful set of results from Week 10, which now makes it four profitable weeks in a row and six from nine for the season.
With eight regular-season games left, we’re starting to get a good feel for those locked in for the playoffs and those that still have work to do. There are some monster matchups over the next four days, with an intriguing game between the Buccaneers (6-3) and the Bills (6-3), two teams many are tipping for a Super Bowl run. Arguably, the two best teams in the NFL go head-to-head as the Seahawks (7-2) travel to the Rams (7-2), and to top it all off, Monday Night Football sees the Lions (6-3) take on the Eagles (7-2) at Lincoln Financial Field.
NFL Week 11 Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet
Form is temporary. Class is permanent. At least, that’s the saying, but at the moment, we’re in great form. The markets look enticing this week as well, and for the first time in a while, we’ve got a couple of games with some interesting reverse line movements (RLM), helping us add weight to our strong confidence ratings.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets @ Patriots (Thu) | NYJ: 41 / 48 NE: 59 / 52 | Consensus: NE | Open: NE -5.5 Current: NE -12.5 | Lean Patriots -12.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Commanders vs Dolphins (Intl) | WAS: 40 / 44 MIA: 60 / 56 | Consensus: MIA | Open: WAS -4.5 Current: MIA -2.5 | Dolphins -2.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Packers @ Giants | GB: 60 / 60 NYG: 40 / 40 | Consensus: GB | Open: GB -4.5 Current: GB -7 | Packers -7 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Buccaneers @ Bills | TB: 60 / 54 BUF: 40 / 46 | Public: TB Sharps: TB (lean) | Open: BUF -5.5 Current: BUF -5.5 | Lean Bills -5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Bengals @ Steelers | CIN: 62 / 54 PIT: 38 / 46 | Public: CIN Sharps: split/lean CIN | Open: CIN -1.5 Current: PIT -5.5 | Steelers -5.5 | 8.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Texans @ Titans | HOU: 60 / 52 TEN: 40 / 48 | Public: HOU Sharps: TEN | Open: HOU -3 Current: HOU -6.5 | Texans -6.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Bears @ Vikings | CHI: 62 / 72 MIN: 38 / 28 | Public: CHI Sharps: CHI | Open: MIN -2.5 Current: MIN -3 | Vikings -3 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Panthers @ Falcons | CAR: 44 / 45 ATL: 56 / 55 | Consensus: ATL | Open: ATL -3 Current: ATL -3.5 | Falcons -3.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Chargers @ Jaguars | LAC: 68 / 77 JAX: 32 / 23 | Consensus: LAC | Open: LAC -1.5 Current: LAC -3 | Chargers -3 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Seahawks @ Rams | SEA: 73 / 77 LAR: 27 / 23 | Consensus: SEA | Open: LAR -4.5 Current: LAR -3 | Lean Rams -3 | 5.0 (Medium) | No |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | SF: 70 / 61 ARI: 30 / 39 | Public: SF Sharps: ARI | Open: SF -1.5 Current: SF -3 | 49ers -3 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Ravens @ Browns | BAL: 77 / 68 CLE: 23 / 34 | Public: BAL Sharps: CLE | Open: BAL -8.5 Current: BAL -7.5 | Browns +7.5 | 6.5 (Medium–Strong) | Yes |
| Chiefs @ Broncos | KC: 60 / 74 DEN: 40 / 26 | Consensus: KC | Open: KC -1.5 Current: KC -3.5 | Chiefs -3.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
| Lions @ Eagles | DET: 78 / 79 PHI: 22 / 21 | Consensus: DET | Open: PHI -3.5 Current: PHI -2.5 | Lean Lions +2.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Cowboys @ Raiders (Mon) | DAL: 77 / 66 LV: 23 / 34 | Consensus: DAL | Open: DAL -1.5 Current: DAL -3.5 | Cowboys -3.5 | 6.0 (Medium–Strong) | No |
Best NFL Value Predictions for Week 11 – Top Picks
Our Week 11 sharp money table features three standout picks, all rated seven or higher and with RLM on each. You can check out the best NFL betting sites for the latest odds and promotions for the week ahead.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals @ Steelers | Public: CIN Sharps: CIN | Steelers -5.5 | 8.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| Bears @ Vikings | Public: CHI Sharps: CHI | Vikings -3 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
| 49ers @ Cardinals | Public: SF Sharps: ARI | 49ers -3 | 7.0 (Strong) | Yes |
NFL Predictions for Week 11 – 7.0+ Confidence Rating
Our pick of the week, and the strongest confidence rating for some time, comes from the Bengals on the road at the Steelers. The market has totally flipped, opening at CIN -1.5 to PIT -5.5. It’s a classic case of opposing the public here, but it’s not just a matter of how much money has gone against them, but more importantly, who has bet against them. Even without considering the money, the Steelers at -5.5 would be a solid pick, given their 5-4 season record, up against a Bengals side that has won just once on the road this season.
The public and the money have both leaned towards the Bears, but the spread is with the Vikings. Why? Well, it’s classic book support. Influential punters are taking the Vikings at home, and when this happens, it’s usually wise to follow suit. It’s a tight game on paper. With the line at -3, we need a balanced defence from the Vikings, using their pass-rush to keep the Bears in check. We’d love a little more meat on the bone in terms of the spread, if only to keep under the key three line, but the numbers have spoken, so it makes the grade.
You’ve got to feel for the 49ers a little in the NFC West. We’re 11 games in, and they’ve got a 0.600 record, relying on a wildcard spot at best to make the playoffs. The markets have similar vibes to the Bears-Vikings game above. The line has nudged from -1.5 to -3, with the public favouring the 49ers and the money shading the Cardinals. This game is close, but if we strip back the two teams, the 49ers have a much stronger roster and have sustained support on the markets, even at -3.
2025 NFL Sharp Money Season Results
| Week | Games | Best | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 73.33 |
| 3 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 46.67 |
| 4 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 41.67 |
| 5 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 6 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 46.15 |
| 7 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 8 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 61.54 |
| 9 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69.23 |
| 10 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57.14 |
| Total | 132 | 121 | 70 | 51 | 57.85 |
