Our NFL Week 2 sharp money report is live. After a thrilling opening weekend, we’ve got the latest from the NFL betting markets to show you exactly where the public and sharps are leaning. We’ve tracked where the money is heading, how the lines have shifted and, more importantly, pinpointed where the value lies when you follow the data and fade the public.
The game of the week comes from Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs host the Philadelphia Eagles in a rerun of the 2025 Super Bowl. The public has poured in on the Chiefs to avenge their defeat with 78% of the total bets, but the sharps have opposed it in their droves, with 76% of the money backing the Eagles to cover a -1.5 spread.
Public vs Sharps: Why it Matters
Total bet percentage tells you what’s popular, whereas the money tells you where the serious bets are heading. Think of it as Big Dave down the pub telling you to back the Dolphins because he once went to Disneyland in Florida, compared with a crack team of Oxford University students who have spent all week running data and processing algorithms to determine which line shows the biggest value. Public action inflates prices on hype teams, whereas sharp action finds the value before the markets adjust.
It kicks off on Thursday night, with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Washington Commanders. We’ve covered all 16 games to highlight where the sharp money is heading and where the value lies for Week 2 of the NFL season.
NFL Week 2 Betting Splits & Sharp Money Plays – Cheat Sheet
Check out the table below for the NFL betting splits across Week 2.
| Game | Bets % / Money % | Public vs Sharps | Line Movement | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders @ Packers | WAS 60% / 53% GB 40% / 47% | Consensus (WAS) | Open: GB -2.5 (10/11) Current: -3.5 (10/11) | Packers -3.5 | 6 (Medium) | Yes |
| Bills @ Jets | BUF 43% / 57% NYJ 57% / 43% | Public: NYJ Sharps: BUF | Open: BUF -8.5 (10/11) Current: -6.5 (20/23) | Bills -6.5 | 6 (Medium) | Yes |
| Patriots @ Dolphins | NE 43% / 39% MIA 57% / 61% | Consensus (MIA) | Open: MIA -2.5 (10/11) Current: -1.5 (10/11) | Pass (Lean Dolphins -1.5) | 4.5 (Medium) | Weak |
| Browns @ Ravens | CLE 65% / 18% BAL 35% / 82% | Public: CLE Sharps: BAL | Open: BAL -12.5 (10/11) Current: -7.5 (11/10) | Ravens -7.5 | 9.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| 49ers @ Saints | SF 29% / 54% NO 71% / 46% | Public: NO Sharps: SF | Open: SF -7 (20/21) Current: -3 (10/11) | Pass (Lean 49ers -3) | 5 (Medium) | No |
| Rams @ Titans | LAR 29% / 38% TEN 71% / 62% | Consensus (TEN) | Open: LAR -4.5 (10/11) Current: -5.5 (10/11) | Rams -5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | Yes |
| Bears @ Lions | CHI 60% / 23% DET 40% / 77% | Public: CHI Sharps: DET | Open: DET -4.5 (10/11) Current: -6 (10/11) | Lions -6 | 6 (Medium) | No |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | JAX 44% / 75% CIN 56% / 25% | Public: CIN Sharps: JAX | Open: CIN -5.5 (10/11) Current: -3.5 (20/23) | Jaguars +3.5 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
| Seahawks @ Steelers | SEA 36% / 33% PIT 64% / 67% | Consensus (PIT) | Open: PIT -1.5 (10/11) Current: -3 (10/11) | Pass (lean Seahawks +3) | 5 (Medium) | Yes |
| Giants @ Cowboys | NYG 48% / 24% DAL 52% / 76% | Consensus (DAL) | Open: DAL -4.5 (10/11) Current: -5.5 (10/11) | Cowboys -5.5 | 5.5 (Medium) | No |
| Panthers @ Cardinals | CAR 61% / 19% ARI 39% / 81% | Public: CAR Sharps: ARI | Open: ARI -4.5 (10/11) Current: -4.5 (23/20) | Cardinals -4.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Broncos @ Colts | DEN 68% / 56% IND 32% / 44% | Consensus (DEN) | Open: DEN -3.5 (10/11) Current: -1.5 (10/11) | Pass (lean DEN -1.5) | 5 (Medium) | No |
| Eagles @ Chiefs | PHI 24% / 78% KC 76% / 22% | Public: KC Sharps: PHI | Open: PHI +1.5 (10/11) Current: PHI -1.5 (10/11) | Eagles -1.5 | 9.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Falcons @ Vikings | ATL 22% / 11% MIN 78% / 89% | Consensus (MIN) | Open: MIN -4.5 (10/11) Current: -3.5 (10/11) | Hard Pass | 1 (Weak) | No |
| Buccaneers @ Texans | TB 62% / 74% HOU 38% / 26% | Consensus (TB) | Open: TB +1.5 (10/11) Current: +2.5 (10/11) | Pass (lean TB +2.5) | 4 (Weak) | No |
| Chargers @ Raiders | LAC 40% / 82% LV 60% / 18% | Public: LV Sharps: LAC | Open: LAC -3 (10/11) Current: -3.5 (10/11) | Chargers -3.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
Best NFL Value Bets for Week 2
These five games include our highest confidence levels for Week 2 NFL betting tips. They have a positive reverse line movement, indicating sharp money pushing against the public from the best NFL betting sites.
| Game | Public vs Sharps | Best Play | Confidence | RLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles @ Chiefs | Public: KC Sharps: PHI | Eagles -1.5 | 9.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Browns @ Ravens | Public: CLE Sharps: BAL | Ravens -7.5 | 9.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Chargers @ Raiders | Public: LV Sharps: LAC | Chargers -3.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Panthers @ Cardinals | Public: CAR Sharps: ARI | Cardinals -4.5 | 8.5 (Strong) | Yes |
| Jaguars @ Bengals | Public: CIN Sharps: JAX | Jaguars +3.5 | 7 (Strong) | Yes |
NFL Pick for Week 2 – 7+ Confidence Rating
It’s the game of the week and our biggest confidence play. The public has piled into the Chiefs (76% of bets), but the sharps are overwhelmingly heavy on Philly, taking 78% of the money. The market has totally flipped from an initial line of +1.5 on the Eagles to -1.5. We’ve got a huge divergence with a decisive movement in a huge game. It’s almost the perfect score and the best value bet of the week.
Best price: Ladbrokes 1/1 (evens)
One of the strongest divergence ratings for the week as the public favour the Browns (65% of bets) and the big money has lumped on the Ravens (82%). It’s a huge handicap at -7.5, and we’ve docked a point because of that, but with reverse line movement from -12.5 into -7.5, that confidence spikes again.
Best price: Ladbrokes 11/10
The LA Chargers travel to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday Night Football, with the public leaning towards the Raiders to cover the spread (60% of bets). The money is massively against that line (82% of volume), and the sharp punters are favouring it. Additional confidence is gained with the slightly smaller spread of -3.5 to cover, along with a clear reverse line movement from -3 to -3.5.
Best price: Betway 1/1 (evens)
The sharps are piling on the Cardinals (81%) for this one, while the public thinks the Panthers will cover (61%). It’s another huge spread, which only loses on confidence based on the market strength and the fact that it’s not one of the bigger games of the week. Still, lots to get excited about for the Cardinals to cover at -4.5.
Best price: Coral 23/20
The public is leaning towards the Bengals with 56% of bets, but the sharp money is heading to Jacksonville (75% of money). It’s a strong split, and the line has moved from -5.5 on the Bengals into -3.5. It’s clear reverse line movement, bumping up our confidence score to make it our final “strong” pick for the NFL week 2 betting tips.
Best price: Coral 13/20
How Confidence Ratings are Calculated
Confidence ratings are based on four main criteria that are linked to sharp and public betting signals:
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Volume of bets vs money gap – This is the starting point. We look at the difference between the number of bets placed and the amount of money wagered. The bigger the difference, the higher the confidence.
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Line movements – Comparing how the markets have moved based on the bets placed is crucial. Those that shade with the sharps are good, but if there are signs of reverse line movement, then this is a golden ticket.
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Consensus vs divergence: If the public and the sharps are on the same side, this subtracts confidence. There’s often little to no value to be had here.
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Market strength: The size of the game matters. Popular games attract more bets, which in turn increases the market's liquidity. Primetime matchups and marquee games are ideal to target, as they will boost confidence levels.
