NFL Week 20 Divisional Playoffs Sharp Money and Public Betting Report

It’s Divisional Playoff time in the NFL, and we’re down to the final eight teams as the race for the Super Bowl ramps up. Our NFL sharp money and public betting report is live, showing you who and what to bet on this week.

There have been a few upsets from the playoffs already, none bigger than the Eagles falling foul to an increasingly impressive 49ers side. All four games this weekend look incredibly competitive – as they should – with the spread for three of them within a single field goal.

Saturday night’s game has the Bills travelling to Denver to face the Broncos in a re-run of the 2025 Wild Card round. Brandon Beane’s side strolled to a 31-7 win last year, but the Broncos are a different animal now, and it should be a much closer match.

As ever, it’s all about the numbers. Our NFL sharp money report looks at where the money and the volume of bets are heading, coupled with line movements based on this, to see if there’s value in spots the Average Joe overlooks.

NFL Week 20 Divisional Playoffs Public Betting and Sharp Money Cheat Sheet

With only four games to choose from in the Divisional Playoffs, it’s a more condensed cheat sheet this week. But as ever, we’ve compared the lines across the best NFL betting sites to see if we can find an angle following the money.

Best Value Predictions for the NFL Divisional Playoffs – Top Picks

Whenever we reach this stage of the season, markets tend to be less volatile. There are fewer games, and the teams are all pretty even, so market movement is minimal. That said, we’ve still got some good data about who to follow, but confidence ratings aren’t as high as some of the regular-season games.

Bills @ Broncos: Confidence 5.5 – Broncos -1.5

It’s the only Divisional Playoff game with any significant market movement. The Bills opened at -1.5, and even though both the money and the sharps have taken that on in their droves, they’ve drifted to +1.5. This is classic reverse line movement and a major shift through the zero. It shows us that some seriously respected money has landed on the Broncos here, and with the line so tight, it makes sense to follow that. Also, taking home-field advantage is huge in playoff games, with 75% of Divisional games won by the home team.

49ers @ Seahawks: Confidence 4.5 – Seahawks -7

There’s just a hair of reverse line movement in the game between the 49ers and the Seahawks. Both the public and sharps are taking the bigger spread on the 49ers, but it’s still shifted from -7.5 to -7 going against the public. San Francisco backers also lose the hook, and even though it’s just half a point, it’s meaningful because it crosses the key hook-7. By taking Seattle at -7, we’re getting a cleaner number, and again, home advantage plays a role in our rating. That said, it’s still only scored at 4.5 for the game, so take a bit of caution with this one.

2025-26 NFL Sharp Money Season Results

Last week we broke even, which at this stage of the season, we’ll take. As ever, every week that the sharp money report has been live, we’ve documented the results. Full transparency is how we roll at TPP with just two game weeks to go before the Super Bowl.