Developing betting strategies helps you to become more focused and make informed decisions on your wagers. Sports betting is not an exact science but formulating a plan which you stick to can avoid big losses through impulsive choices and maximize your chances of winning. Read on to discover more and begin crafting a sports betting strategy that works for you.
Betting Strategy for sports: Basics Explained
Before we get started, let’s be clear: a betting strategy does not guarantee success. The purpose of having a strategy is to create a level of consistency that can be measured over many bets, allowing you to make tweaks along the way, in the hope of finding a winning solution.
It’s never about short-term gains. Instead, it’s about developing a sports betting strategy that suits your betting style. Once you have a solid plan nailed down, you’re far less likely to make rash decisions that can lead to bankroll annihilation.
It’s one thing guessing a correct result based on gut, tea leaves, and whether you had your Weetabix that morning – It’s another when putting in the time to make a calculated decision based on data and tried-and-tested methods.
Don't forget to take a look at our article about football betting strategy if you're interested in specific strategies for that sport.
Value betting is a betting strategy where you look to find an edge over the bookmaker by identifying odds which are longer than you think they should be. To do this, you need to assess how likely an outcome is and then find odds which are higher than this and wager on them.
Every set of odds a bookie offers comes with an implied probability, reflecting how likely the bookies think an outcome is expected to occur. For example, odds of 3/4 have an implied probability of 57.1%.
You then need to judge if the odds are correct. Research and the use of stats helps you do this more accurately. If you see an event to be either more or less likely that the bookmaker, then you may have found a value betting opportunity. If a team is 3/1 to win, the bet has an implied probability of 25%, meaning that they are expected to win one in every four attempts. If you believe they should be winning one if every three attempts (odds of 2/1), then 3/1 represents value.
If you can consistently find value bets that land, you’ll be taking home more than the bookies have bargained for, giving you a healthier bankroll to tackle the next opportunity that comes your way.
Your bankroll is the amount of money you have set aside for your betting. Usually, you will deposit this into your sportsbook account, and this will be your fund to wager from over a specified period of time. Bankroll management is the organisation and use of that cash, ensuring that you have enough to cover your planned bets without running out of funds.
Without effective bankroll management, even experienced and knowledgeable punters can go broke. You need a clear plan to stick to because losing streaks happen, so you need to ensure that you have the funds to see them through. Not over betting on individual wagers is key. A common bankroll strategy is to divide your betting budget in units of 1%-3% of the total and never bet more than that.
While bankroll management is a key part of successful betting strategies, being careful with your money is the most important point. Betting should be an affordable hobby, not something that becomes a financial problem. The best bookmakers all offer responsible gambling tools if you need support.
Return on investment (ROI), often expressed as a percentage is a key metric used to judge the success of betting strategies. To get your ROI percentage, you need to divide your profit by the amount of money invested. In order to do this, you would first need to calculate your net profit (or loss), before using this simple formula to get a percentage:
(Net Profit / Cost of Investment) x 100 = ROI.
This can point to how successful your betting has been over a period of time. A key part in any betting strategy should be to keep a record of your bets to find successful patterns and to manage bankroll. Realistically a 5% ROI over a period such as six months or a year would indicate a successful betting strategy.
Some punters and investors swear by the Kelly Criterion. This formula tells you how much to bet, depending on your perception of value.
Take a look at our online Kelly Criterion Calculator to get a feeling of what this strategy is all about. Somewhat aggressive when applied to sports betting – since it can see you betting a huge percentage of your bankroll on a single bet – it is more common in investment and financial betting. Still, it does force you to consider and estimate the value of your bet in much more detail.
Anyone new to sports betting needs to look out for the gambler’s fallacy. Essentially, you need to know that each bet (at least in ‘pure’ forms of gambling, such as roulette or blackjack) is independent from the next and the last. Using Roulette as an example, if the last 10s spins of the wheel landed on black, that doesn’t mean that a red number is more likely to come up next. The odds remain just shy of 50%.
Remember that sports do not follow the same pattern. Teams and players will likely demonstrate their strengths and weaknesses regularly. Meaning that statistics can help you make informed decisions. However, be mindful that all winning runs and scoring streaks come to an end at some point.
How Bookies Make Money
Knowing how the bookies make money is vital when crafting your betting strategies: after all, how can you beat the bookies if you don’t know how they are winning?
The long and short of it is that when creating odds, a bookmaker will slightly overestimate the probability of each outcome to create a margin and take a small percentage of your winnings. On betting exchanges, when you are wagering against other punters, the operator takes a small commission instead.
For example, if betting on an event where the probability is 50%, such as a coin toss, both outcomes may have odds of 10/11, giving an implied probability of 52.28%, leaving the bookie with a profit margin of 4.56%. This brings us to the odds overround. When you add the implied probability of each outcome of an event, it will add up to over 100%. An example is Arsenal vs Crystal Palace in April 2025. A home win is 4/11, a draw 19/5 and an away win 15/2. When you add the implied probability, you get 105.9%, giving the bookie a 5.9% margin.
Generally, a margin of under 10% is considered fair in the UK industry. So, it is down to you as the bettor to look at the margins, make sure they’re fair, and then see if there are any bets available where the bookie has made the odds higher than you think they should be.
Market-Based Betting Strategies
Research is key in any successful betting strategy, and, as well as statistics and current form, betting markets can provide a lot of information. Market based betting strategies involve picking up on movements in the market, such as odds shifts and fluctuations in betting lines. By reading these movements, punters can grasp opportunities to adjust their wagers.
Multiple factors affect shifts in odds and lines. Sportsbooks, having initially set their odds according to statistical models, which will adjust markets as bets are placed in order to protect themselves from risk. Odds can shorten if confidence in an outcome increases or lengthen if confidence decreases. Significant betting activity on a particular outcome, updates on teams and players, and public opinion can all be factors.
Chasing Steam
The term ‘Chasing Steam’ refers to when punters bet on selections that are experiencing rapidly shortening odds.
The thinking is that if a horse, player, or team’s odds are coming in, it must be for a reason.
Since it usually takes sizable bets to cause odds to shift, the assumption is that these are professional gamblers placing large wagers, forcing the bookies to react.
The truth is that most punters have no clue as to why the sudden interest in the selection, but are banking on the movement of odds being a strong enough indicator to justify placing a bet.
A recent example of this was at the World Cup 2022 in Qatar, when Argentina was around 10/1 to win the tournament a month or so out from the start. The odds had shortened to 6/1 by the time the competition began. Much of this may have been down to hype in the media, however, those who followed the shift were proved right on this occasion.
Fading the Public
While chasing steam involves following your fellow punters when lines and odds move sharply, fading the public means you are going against the grain. This is where you identify that the public can be wrong, especially in highly publicised events, where instead of serious and knowledgeable bettors, the lines are shifted by casual bettors and members of the public with little in depth understanding. The general public often bet on famous names, so famous sportsmen making comebacks can have this effect. However, this does not consider current form.
Another example is English teams in Europe. The public often have an inflated opinion on how English teams will fare. So, a lot of bets on Chelsea winning a Europa League match might see the odds on the opposition lengthen, giving you the chance for a value bet if you think the blues are likely to lose.
Backing Heavy Favourites
Favourites are favourites for a reason. They are likely to win! And more often than not, heavy favourites come home. However, the odds are often very short, so you need to put down a significant stake to get a worthwhile return. While this betting strategy might seem to make sense, it is not without risk and when you do lose, it will be a big hit to your bankroll. Bookies try to minimise their losses so the odds will be low, especially when a lot of punters back the favourite.
An example of this could be picking out a number of top teams when they are at home and backing those home bankers. You will probably win more than you lose, but to make it worthwhile, as stated above, you will have to lay down a significant stake.
Betting Based on Form
When researching your picks, form and recent statistics are hugely important factors. Form and momentum of teams and sports performers are also massive components of setting odds. If a team has won six games in a row, then there will be a high probability of them being very difficult to beat in the seventh. If two teams are not conceding many goals and are involved in a lot of low scoring games, then betting on under 2.5 goals is likely to bring a win.
However, winning runs have to come to an end at some point. It might be worth looking for value in the underdog, especially if a team on a winning streak has injuries, suspensions or is looking tired. Stats are vital to betting strategies, especially when looking into form. Check out our extensive stats tool to help you.
Advanced Sports Betting Strategies
We’re now going to look at some more advanced betting strategies. With these wagering techniques, it is even more important to stay patient and take a long-term view.
It is vital to have accounts with a number of different bookies where you can compare and contrast odds, look for trends, and find angles to exploit to give yourself the best chance of a return. Techniques such as arbitrage and hedging allow you to manage risk by finding differences between bookies and loopholes in the marke. However, modern sportsbooks are highly efficient, and these opportunities are rare, only coming about as a result of thorough research. Timing is vital and this comes with experience.
If you master some of these strategies from one of our betting guides, you can find ways to almost guarantee a profit (in some cases), bearing in mind that sports betting is unpredictable, and no system is infallible. However, you can maximise your chances of success.
Expert Outright Betting Strategies
An outright bet is a wager on the outcome of a league or competition. Many punters will select a team that they think will win the league and then sit back hoping that their bet comes home. However, it is possible to extract more value, secure potential profit, and minimise loss, through following the season and the market closely and then acting swiftly.
Ideally, you need to make your pick early, in the lead up to the season when the odds are better. If you have free bets to use up, this could be a good place to use them. Then you need to watch the action unfold and be ready to act.
One betting strategy for outrights is to lay off your wager by placing bets with other bookmakers to cover you if your selection falls away. So, if you have Liverpool to win the Premier League, but they are locked in a title race with Arsenal, you could back Arsenal with another bookie, maybe after they have suffered a loss, so the odds lengthen, in order to reduce losses or even make a small profit if your main bet on Liverpool doesn’t come through.
Cashing out is another option. If your team has a lead you might want to cash out for a smaller, but guaranteed profit.
Surebets or Arbitrage Betting
Surebets or Arbitrage betting is a wagering technique which bettors use to guarantee success. This is achieved by betting on all outcomes of an event. This is not as straightforward as it sounds, and it is often necessary to stake large sums of money to ensure a profit.
Arbitrage betting is best employed where there are only two potential results, for example, in a tennis match. While betting on both players does not require any skill or knowledge of the sport, making the most of the opportunity means you have to look carefully at the market and monitor different odds with a number of bookies.
Making an arbitrage betting strategy work is a long-term process. Even with careful research, profits of more than 5% are rare. To put this in perspective, it would be a £5 profit from a £100 investment. You need to have accounts with numerous bookmakers in order to snap up the opportunities. The formula to use to access whether you have an arbitrage opportunity is odds/1 x 100. This gives you the Individual Arbitrage Percentage (IAP) for both outcomes. Adding them together gives you the Total Arbitrage Percentage (TAP). If this comes to less than 100% then you have an opportunity.
Hedge Betting
Hedge betting is similar to arbitrage betting in that you are placing bets on different outcomes on a single sporting event, which will help you minimise losses or even guarantee profit, regardless of the outcome. While arbitrage betting is mainly about wagering on two outcomes, hedging involves capitalising on movement in odds for bets you have already placed.
Hedging usually involves taking advantage of movement in odds. If you see odds changing drastically for a bet you have already placed, you can consider betting against yourself in order to compensate for any loss, or to make sure you make a profit regardless.
For example, early in the Premier League season, let’s say most bookies are offering odds of 2/1 for Manchester City to be champions. You bet £100. If they win the title, you stand to get a profit of £200. However, Liverpool are only a few points behind, so you could hedge your bet. If a betting exchange were offering 1/4 on City winning the league, you could bet £100 on them not doing so, therefore ensuring yourself against a loss. Better still, any bet over £80 (the minimum needed to cover a loss) and below £300 (your potential payout) would ensure profit.
Another example of hedging is for multiples. If you have a treble, and the first two legs win, by betting the optimum amount on your third selection not to win, you are able to guarantee profit.
Dutching
Dutching has multiple meanings and is sometimes used as an umbrella term for any set of bets that are guaranteed to give you a profit, including hedge betting and arbitrage betting.
The term “dutching” is most commonly found in horse racing, where you bet on more than one horse in a race. As long as at least one of your horses wins or places, you should gain a profit.
Dutching also involves adjusting your bet size, so you win the same amount, no matter the outcome.
For example, in horse racing, a field may have eight runners, with the odds overround being 120%. However, after researching, you discover that three of the horses are not in the same class, therefore can be ruled out.
So, if you were to dutch only the other five runners, who’s implied probabilities come to 95% then it is possible to get a return from those five horses that would see you in profit.
You can make use of our Dutching Calculator to get more insight on that strategy.
Hutching
Hutching is like Dutching. However, instead of placing differing stakes to receive the same payout, you lean towards the outcome you think is most likely. Thus, you will win more depending on which of your bets comes out on top.
Data-Driven Sports Betting Strategies
Research is crucial to successful betting strategies and there are now more ways of using data and statistics to back up your picks and make more informed decisions on your betting.
Betting Software
There are various kinds of betting software out there which, if used correctly, can help you develop an effective betting strategy. Firstly, keeping a record of your bets in an Excel spreadsheet and keeping notes on leagues you like to bet on are simple ways to strengthen your strategy.
There are a number of options out there, though there will usually be a subscription to pay. Betting software can include bet tracker tools, which help you to keep a record of your wagers. There are stake management systems which helps you distribute your funds effectively. The top platforms scan bookmakers and sports to seek out the best odds. Putting all of this information together will ensure your strategy is organised and that you are finding the best opportunities.
In addition, you can make use of odds comparison tools, bet calculators, specific calculators for hedging and arbitrage wagers.
It is important to ensure that you are comfortable with any software package and that you are patient. There is very little benefit in flitting between different tools and software providers without assessing their value.
Popular Statistical Models Used for Betting
Researching stats and using them to calculate probabilities can be important when deploying smart punting methods. Using tried-and-tested statistical models is usually the way forward. Two of the most popular are Normal Distribution and Poisson Distribution, which, if used effectively, can contribute to better wagering techniques.
Normal distribution: Sports results fall into a pattern of likelihood. For example, in Over/Under betting, if you were looking at betting on over 2.5 goals in a game, you could look at the match in question and see how past results of the teams differ from the average. This would be represented in a bell curve chart, with the top of the curve being the most likely outcome.
Poisson distribution predicts the likelihood of an outcome or specific score in a match. It uses data from past performances to compare likelihoods based on the other team’s data as well as league averages. With this method, you can calculate the probability of any specific score, as well as win or loss for each team. Just remember, these are just predictions and shouldn’t be treated as fact.
Elo Ratings
While a team’s standing in its respective league is an important indication, there can be many alternate and perhaps more accurate ways to express a team or athlete’s relative strength.
Chess uses the Elo Ratings System to create rankings based on the quality of opponents beat in official competition. The idea is that beating a stronger opponent will give you more points than beating a weaker opponent. A similar system was adopted by FIFA in 2018 to rank different countries to seed them for the 2020 World Cup.
Matched Betting
Matched betting is a betting strategy which punters use to take advantage of the various bookie promotions on offer.
By taking a free bet and then placing a lay bet at an exchange betting site, or simply placing the opposite bet at a different site, you can potentially have a guaranteed win, no matter the outcome.
Of course, bookies are on to this, which is why most free bets or welcome offers have very complicated terms, involving accumulators or requiring you to wager your bonus multiple times.
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals are a useful tool on football betting sites, as well as most other ball sports sites. Essentially, they show how well a team should have performed, based on the chances offered to them. There are plenty of advanced metrics which can help predict a match outcome.
Staking Plans
A staking plan is a system that tells you how much of your bankroll to place on each bet. We have already discussed the Kelly Criterion as a relevant system for sports betting. At the same time, there are plenty of sports bettors who use staking plans that were designed for casino games like roulette.
The Fibonacci betting system is a negative progression betting system. The idea is to increase your stake after a loss and decrease it after a win. The idea is that if you bet more after a loss, you can recuperate money that you lost on previous bets. The bet size follows the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21,…), with each bet the sum of the previous two.
The Labouchère staking method is another negative progression system. It is a lot like the Fibonacci system, except that it is slightly more complicated. You start with writing down a sequence of numbers, with your bet always the sum of the first and last numbers. If you lose, you add a number to the sequence. If you win, you remove a number from the sequence.
The Martingale staking method is the easiest negative progression staking plan. Here, you simply double up after a loss.
The above staking plans are designed for roulette, which has odds of roughly 50% per game. Doubling your bet after a loss to win back your stake does work in an ideal set of circumstances, which unfortunately do not exist in real life. You would have to have an infinite bankroll, play a game with no house edge, and play at a table that has no limits on bet size. This is why these staking plans have little relevance. Looking for value and managing your bankroll makes much more sense.
What is Gubbing?
While this may not be an issue for a novice punter, as soon as you start making a serious ROI on your bets, you need to avoid being gubbed. Punters who win too much, or use strategies like matched betting, hedge betting or arbitrage betting will often be excluded from betting promos, have their bet size restricted, or even be banned from using the sportsbook.
The Pareto Principle in Sports Betting
The Pareto Principle is also called the 80/20 rule. It is not a betting strategy itself, but it can be useful to help you identify your most successful betting strategy. In many fields, distribution is more or less 80/20. For example, 80% of the land is owned by 20% of the people, 80% of a bookie’s income comes from 20% of the players. Similarly, 80% of your profits may come from just 20% of your bets. This can ultimately help you identify which bets you should focus on and which you should discard.
Reaching or even surpassing the 20% should be every serious punter’s goal. To be able to calculate this, it’s important to keep track of your bets. Implementing the markets which you tend to do better on could create a positive pattern leading to more winnings.
Following Tipsters
Tipsters can be great for finding sensible bets and are often successful punters who are so good that they are no longer accepted by bookies, or have their bets limited so they can only make a small amount of money. They usually sell their tips as a subscription service. Of course, you should be wary of fraudsters who sell bogus tips. While they may advertise “proof” of huge bets won, this may not reflect their overall betting record.
Popular Sports Betting Tipsters
Sonny Banks
Sonny Banks, or So Money as he’s known on Twitter, is a Canadian sports punter, with a relatively large audience of 24,000 followers. Banks is renowned for his betting expertise and tips.
Tony Bloom
Tony Bloom is a famous sports bettor from Britain who is well known for making large sums of cash from sporting events. ‘The Lizard’ also participated in many prestigious poker tournaments.
Bloom now owns Brighton and Hove Albion football club, as well as StarLizard, which is a betting consultancy firm.
Multiple Betting Accounts
Having multiple betting accounts is essential to many of the betting strategies we have outlined.
If you are planning to use hedge betting, matched betting, or arbitrage betting, then it is necessary to have accounts with multiple bookies. Operators will get wise to you hedging your bets on the same site as where you place your original wagers.
Having separate accounts also allows you to shop around for odds. A small difference can boost your bankroll. Opening new accounts will also give you welcome offers. If you can get some free bets at the start of a season, it can be a good idea to put these on an outright when the odds are more favourable. Furthermore, the more bookies you are with, the more you can benefit from odds boosts and specials during major events.
Bookmaker Betting Offers
Betting sites are constantly trying to attract new customers, so, there are always great welcome offers available. These include bet and get offers, for example, Bet £10 and Get £30 in Free Bets, matched deposit offers, a return on your investment if your first bet loses, plus many more. These offers can be used as part of your betting strategy. For example, a free bet could be used for an outright at the start of the season, or it could be used to hedge a bet. Check out the best free bets and sign-up offers for more info!
There are also plenty of offers for existing customers, including odds boosts and rewards, including free bets for loyalty. These can all be used to put some of your betting strategies into operation.
ThePuntersPage Final Say
Bringing organisation and method into your betting will increase your chances of success. There are no fool-proof betting strategies out there, however, there are many ways to maximise value and avoid unnecessary losses. Research is key, and by using stats, looking closely at the markets, and by comparing odds, you can get more satisfaction and, potentially, more profit from your sports betting.
Sports Betting Strategy FAQs
There are many betting strategies out there and you need to identify the best betting strategy for your wagering needs. It is important to have a strategy rather than just place random bets. A good betting strategy will find value through finding outcomes undervalued by bookmakers and will manage your bankroll to ensure that you bet only what you can afford, spreading your funds across the wagers you want to make.
There are no fool-proof betting strategies out there. However, finding a method that suits you, staying patient, and being consistent gives you more chance of placing informed bets. Arbitrage betting can, through betting on both outcomes, guarantee a profit. However, these opportunities are hard to find, and you often need to stake a substantial amount to make it worthwhile.
Arbitrage betting is legal; however, bookies try to prevent it. An operator will attempt to limit accounts and cancel bets in order to put a stop to this.
Surebets, or arbitrage betting is a wagering technique that gamblers employ in order to guarantee their chances of success. They do this by betting on all outcomes of an event. This works best in an event like a tennis match where there are only two possible outcomes. You need to monitor the odds across several accounts as these opportunities are not easy to find.
The Kelly Criterion does not follow a fixed betting pattern or percentage, like many strategies. Instead, it instructs you to bet according to your estimation of value. The higher the value, the bigger the percentage of your bankroll you should bet. This strategy is more common in investment and financial trading and can be a potentially aggressive strategy for sports betting, with some individual wagers requiring a higher stake than usual.