It’s taken Australia just 11 days to carve out an unassailable 3-0 lead and retain the Ashes – the second quickest of all time. England were widely criticised for coming into the series undercooked, and even though both Stokes and McCullum backed their decision to play just one inter-team warm-up game on a slow track at Lilac Hill, they’ve paid the ultimate price and head into the fourth Test at the MCG with only pride to play for.
With the damage done in terms of the wider result, it’s a chance for England to regain a bit of face. The Aussies will be without Pat Cummins, Nathan Lyon, and likely Josh Hazlewood for the Boxing Day Test, but it’s questionable whether England are mentally in the right frame of mind to capitalise.
A lot has been made about Stokes’ mixed messages both on and off the pitch. He’s publicly said that Australia was “not a place for weak men”, a clear outing for some of his teammates. However, his efforts on the pitch have gone against the aggressive Bazball mantra instilled in this side, as he grinded to 83 from 198 balls in Adelaide. Admirable, but confusing.
For England to get anything out of this fourth Test, the team needs to be aligned on their approach. The Ashes might be lost, but a heck of a lot of pride is still at play here, and we head to the betting markets to see if this pride can convert into value.
Fourth Test Ashes Betting Tips
The markets are packed with value for the Boxing Day Test, and we’ve got three cracking bets to sink your teeth into. They’re best price with bet365 and paying a cool 15/2 for this tidy 3-fold.
| Market | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Top Australian 1st Innings Bowler | Mitchell Starc | 2/1 |
| Batter Matches (Most Runs) – Head vs Weatherald | Travis Head | 4/7 |
| Bowler Milestones | Jofra Archer to Take 4+ Wickets | 5/6 |
| Total Odds | 15/2 |
*Odds correct at 10:30 GMT on 22/12/2025. Odds subject to change.
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Bet 1: Top Australian 1st Innings Bowler – Mitchell Starc
We’ve been duly rewarded across the first three Tests by backing Mitchell Starc to be the pick of the Aussie bowlers, and we’re running it back for a fourth time for the Boxing Day Test.
The left-arm quick has been in fine form, taking 22 wickets and the most in the first innings of both the first and second Tests.
He’s priced 2/1 to do exactly that at the MCG, which is an astonishingly big price given that Pat Cummins has already suggested he won’t be playing, meaning his biggest competition won’t be involved. His record at the MCG is excellent, taking 24 wickets at an average of 16.3 with a best of 6/43, and as a result, he is the first pick of our Ashes fourth test betting tips.
Bet 2: Batter Matches (Most Runs) – Travis Head to beat Jake Weatherald
Travis Head is having an incredible series. He’s already amassed 379 runs across the opening three Tests, including two centuries to his name.
We’re dropping into the batter matches market for the first time in Melbourne. A head-to-head over Jake Weatherald has caught our eye, and odds of 4/7 look a big price given how much Weatherald has struggled in the series.
He’s scored just 131 runs, which is fewer than Mitchell Starc, for context. Given Head’s relentless form and Wetherald’s continued struggles, it looks like a good price to add as the second part of our Ashes fourth Test bet builder.
Bet 3: Bowler Milestones – Jofra Archer to Take 4+ Wickets
There haven’t been an awful lot of positives to take from the series for England, but one of those will be the form of Jofra Archer. First off, he’s managed to stay fit throughout, which is a big plus, and we’re still expecting him to be part of the team in Melbourne.
Second, he’s bowled with good pace and control, something that his teammates have struggled with. His five wickets in the first innings in Adelaide were impressive and gave England a bit of hope before their disastrous batting display put them back in their place.
To take 4+ match wickets at 5/6 with the best cricket betting sites is the value play here. He’s the main man for England in the series, and as long as he stays fit, this should be a good final value pick for the Test match.
