We’re down to the final four of what’s been a pulsating AFCON so far, as we preview the two semi-final games on Wednesday, 14 January, 2026, to see where the value is from a betting perspective.
Hosts Morocco are looking strong after their relatively comfortable 2-0 win over Cameroon and are 6/4 favourites to win the AFCON tournament outright. But they face a dangerous Nigerian side that dispatched Algeria in their quarter-final, and are a lot of people’s outside pick to win their fourth AFCON title.
The other semi-final is about as competitive as you will get. Senegal pushed past a tricky Mali side, and Egypt dispatched the current AFCON champions Ivory Coast, in an absolute classic in Agadir. The bookies have this as a coin flip in the betting, given how well-matched the teams are.
AFCON Semi-Final Betting Tips
After previewing both games, we’ve got two picks for the upcoming AFCON semi-finals. We’ve compared the odds across the best betting sites and have the latest lines for you below.
| Game | Market | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal vs Egypt | Senegal to win | 15/13 | Unibet |
| Nigeria vs Morocco | Morocco to win | 11/8 | Matchbook |
*Odds correct at 11:00 GMT on 12/01/2026. Odds subject to change.
Bet 1: Senegal vs Egypt – Senegal to Win at 15/13
Senegal are looking strong. They were relatively comfortable 1-0 winners against Mali, and to be honest, flattered what was a tiring Mali side.
Much of the pre-tournament hype around the Lions was about their attacking prowess, with the likes of Sadio Mane, Pape Sarr, Ismaila Sarr and Nicolas Jackson all at manager Pape Thiaw’s disposal.
But it’s been the defensive displays that’ve helped them cruise into the semi-finals, conceding just two goals throughout the tournament.
Egypt have been less convincing. They rode their luck for much of that 3-2 quarter-final win over the Ivory Coast, and had a much inferior xG of 0.75 to their opponents' 1.61. Chance after chance went begging in that second half, but sometimes, you need a bit of luck in a competition like AFCON, and that’s exactly what they got.
They have the players to hurt Senegal on Wednesday, but they need to improve. Mo Salah, Omar Marmoush and Eman Ashour are just a handful of notable match winners who could see them progress to their 11th final.
That said, we’re backing Senegal to get the win here. They look like a much more rounded side, and their defensive record is what wins tournaments like this. Priced at 15/13 with Unibet looks good value as well, making them the first of our AFCON betting picks.
Bet 2: Nigeria vs Morocco – Morocco to Win at 11/8
Two of our three pre-tournament AFCON tips are still alive, and both feature the hosts, Morocco. We picked them to go all the way this year, and for their Real Madrid starlet Brahim Diaz to be the top scorer.
As it stands, Diaz has scored in all five games so far, and Morocco have cruised to the semi-finals with four wins from five.
They made light work of their quarter-final against Cameroon. It was a game where they came in with a plan to sit deep, concede possession for the most part, and utilise their devastating counterattack with the likes of Saibari, El Kaabi and Diaz to their advantage.
Nigeria will, however, be a much tougher opponent. The Super Eagles are the only side to win all five matches of AFCON 2025-26 and dispatched Algeria at the weekend with minimal fuss.
This looks like a tighter matchup than the other semi-final, but we’re sticking with our pre-tournament pick of Morocco. There’s a lot to be said about home advantage, and the Atlas Lions are revelling in that support. A close call, but we’re going to take Morocco to win at 11/8 with Matchbook as our second and final pick.
