The magic of the FA Cup third round continues on Sunday, with eight cracking ties to pick from. It’s a day dominated by Premier League and Championship opposition, with several games looking great value from the early betting markets. Let’s jump in, shall we?
Best FA Cup Tips for Sunday’s Games
We’ve compared the odds across dozens of the best online betting sites and found that BetMGM odds the best odds for these picks, paying a cool £58.40 for a £10 stake.
| Game | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby vs Leeds | Over 2.5 Total Goals | 23/20 |
| Portsmouth vs Arsenal | BTTS No | 8/11 |
| West Ham vs QPR | BTTS Yes | 4/5 |
| Total Odds | 5.84/1 |
*Odds correct at 10:20 GMT on 10/01/2025. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Derby County vs Leeds United – Over 2.5 Goals
We’re heading to Pride Park for our first FA Cup acca pick for Sunday’s game, as Championship side Derby County host Premier League outfit Leeds United.
It’ll be interesting to see how strong a side Leeds boss Daniel Farke fields in this game, given their priority for the season is to maintain their Premier League status. So this should level the playing field somewhat.
There’s an argument for backing an upset here, with Derby priced at a tempting 15/4 to progress to the fourth round. But, when checking the Derby vs Leeds stats on Kickform, the total goals market starts to jump out.
We’re backing over 2.5 goals, but a key metric here is the both teams to score numbers. Fourteen of Leeds’ 21 games have landed with BTTS (67%), and in their last eight alone, that figure is a whopping 88%, with 3.50 goals per game.
For Derby, the numbers are similar: 2.69 goals per game, 50% over 2.5 goals and 73% BTTS from their 26 matches. 23/20 for a goals fest at Pride Park looks like a no-brainer.
Bet 2: Portsmouth vs Arsenal – BTTS No
Portsmouth host Premier League leaders Arsenal at Fratton Park in what looks like an incredibly difficult game for Pompey to progress. In fact, the bookies have them priced at a whopping 17/2 to win the game, such is the gulf in class.
There’s nothing about the form of the two teams that suggests there’ll be an upset here. Arsenal will, of course, rotate from the 11 that started the drab 0-0 draw with Liverpool on Thursday night, but then, the quality of those changes would still likely see them field a side capable of a top-four spot in the Premier League, such is their strength in depth.
Portsmouth have struggled for goals all season, with just 21 in 24 games. Only all-but-relegated Sheffield Wednesday have scored less. Their BTTS stats suggest they are 50% in the league, but this is a step up class.
Given how strong Arsenal are defensively and the fact they’ve conceded just 14 league goals all season, it’s tough to see how Pompey will get a sniff here. There’s no value in the 2/9 for an Arsenal win, but 8/11 on both teams to score no looks like a more than decent price.
Bet 3: West Ham vs QPR – BTTS Yes
The last thing West Ham needs right now is an FA Cup tie, especially one against a solid Championship outfit in QPR. Defeat likely won’t have too much bearing on whether Nuno Espirito Santo can save his job, but it certainly won’t help.
Somehow, they’re priced at 4/7 to win the game, but if you’re willing to back them this weekend, you’re a braver man than I. In fact, QPR’s odds of 12/5 to progress to the next round were highly tempting here, although we’ve instead opted for something a little more conservative.
Even though the Hammers haven’t picked up as many points as their both teams to score metrics are good with 64% landing at home in the league and averaging 3.45 goals across those games.
Numbers look good across the capital for QPR as well. Their games average 2.96 goals, and a whopping 73% have triggered BTTS Yes.
This could be a nervous game to watch for Hammers fans, but the numbers suggest there will be goals. BTTS Yes at 4/5 is the final part of our FA Cup acca tips for Sunday.
