Thursday evening sees the first leg matches in both the Europa League and the UEFA Conference League. I have scanned the markets for the matches in both competitions to come up with four great bets.
Europa League and Conference League Best Bests
Using stats from Kickform I have found four great value bets. These are worth going for as singles, however, if you put them into an acca with bet365, one of the best online bookies in the UK, you get odds of 23.81/1.
No Expiry Date
Odds correct at 12.08 on 07/04/2026. Odds subject to change.
| Odds | Bookie | Points | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet | Odds | Bookie | Points |
| Bologna vs Aston Villa: Villa to Win | 11/8 | Unibet | 1 |
| Porto vs Nottingham Forest: Elliot Anderson Over 1.5 Fouls | 4/7 | bet365 | 1.5 |
| Rayo Vallecano vs AEK: Rayo to Win & Over 2.5 Goals | 11/5 | bet365 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina: Draw or Fiorentina | 23/20 | BetMGM | 1 |
| Acca | 23.81/1 | bet365 | 1 |
Points System
I've added a points-scoring system that works as a confidence rating for each bet. Points are based on your standard stake:
– 1 Point = Your standard stake (What you would normally bet here)
– 1.5 Points = Your usual stake plus half.
– 2 Points = Double your usual stake
– 0.5 Point = Half your usual stake.
Bologna vs Aston Villa: Villa to Win
I often feel that the bookies overestimate British teams in Europe. However, when you look at Bologna’s home record and Villa’s away record this season, then there is real value in backing Unai Emery’s side. Bologna have lost over half of their home fixtures in Serie A this season, winning only five from 15. They have won only twice at home in Europe. Villa have won six on the road in the Premier League and have won four from five away games in the Europa League. For good measure Villa beat Bologna in the first Europa League fixture in September. I’m often cautious about going for an away win, but I am tempted by odds of 11/8 at Unibet, one of the best bookies in the UK.
Porto vs Nottingham Forest: Elliot Anderson Over 1.5 Fouls
Porto are strong at home, and the bookies know this, and it is reflected in their prices. I also don’t have enough confidence in Forest to back them to bag a surprise win.
On the other hand, looking at the Kickform stats there is some value to be found in the fouls market. Elliot Anderson has quite rightly won a lot of plaudits over the last couple of seasons and has deservedly established himself in the England squad. However, Anderson is not always associated with fouls, and the bookies tend to undervalue him a little here. The former Newcastle United player is very competitive, and this leads to him giving his fair share of fouls away. Our Kickform stats show that he has averaged 1.49 fouls per 90 minutes in the Premier League and 2.35 fouls per 90 minutes in the Europa League. I think that he is likely to rack up at least two fouls on Thursday, especially if Porto have more possession, which is likely.
Rayo Vallecano vs AEK: Rayo to Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Rayo have only lost one Europa League match at home this season and have only lost twice at home in La Liga this season. AEK have not shown sufficient consistency in their European games to inspire confidence therefore I expect Rayo to win. Kickform give the Spanish side a 72% chance of winning to back up my point.
I am also expecting a few goals. Kickform’s data shows that 75% of Rayo’s Conference League matches and 63% of AEK’s fixtures in the competition have had three goals or more. I think that the bookies have got this one wrong, so I am happy to go for over 2.5 goals along with a home win.
Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina: Draw or Fiorentina
Although I think that Palace have a decent chance to progress over two legs, I think that the bookies have overestimated their chances in the home leg. Palace have only won three times at home in the Premier League and have often struggled at home in Europe too, with only three wins in the Conference League. It has been their form away from Selhurst Park that has pulled them through. Fiorentina have performed better away from home than they have on home soil, and I am backing the Italian side to come away with something at 23/20 with BetMGM.
My 23/1 Acca at bet365 is Live
I have placed my acca with bet365 simply because they have all of the markets available.
Thursday's Europa League Odds
Check out the latest odds from the UK's best football betting sites.
Thursday's UEFA Conference Leage Odds
Check out the Conference League Odds from the UK's leading bookies.
