It’s been 40 years since either Rangers or Celtic failed to win the Scottish Premiership. A staggering stat, but one that’s moulded and arguably, plagued a league void of competition during that time. As we sit a third of the way into the 2025/26 season, that mould could be about to shatter. Hearts are pumping some much-needed new life into the league, perched at the summit, seven points clear of Celtic and so far, unbeaten.
Is Glasgow’s stronghold over this once great league about to end? If you logged on at any of the best online bookies, they’d have you believe ‘no’. Celtic are still odds-on favourites and arguably, rightly so. But even if those Jam Tarts fall short, it’s been a hell of a ride already and maybe, just maybe, there’s belief among the chasing pack that the Old Firm can be caught.
The wider league has been just as unpredictable. Hibernian are making a charge for those elusive Champions League spots, while Rangers are having to reset (again) after Russell Martin was sacked within 123 days. Brendan Rodgers has left Celtic, and calls to scrap a VAR system which seemingly fails weekly are sounding louder than the bagpipes at Edinburgh Castle.
All that aside, the question we want to answer is: a third of the season in, where’s the value in the Scottish Premiership odds?
Scottish Premiership Winner Odds
*Odds correct at 10:20 GMT on 11/11/2025. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Before a ball was kicked, Hearts’ Scottish Premiership winner odds were 25/1. Twelve games, nine wins, three draws, zero defeats and a seven-point lead later, and they’re still only 5/2 to win their fifth league title and first since 1952.
Derek McInnes is doing a remarkable job. They spent just £2.5 million in the summer, some £12 million less than Celtic and a whopping £25 million less than Rangers. It’s Roy of the Rovers stuff, having already beaten both Celtic and Rangers this season.
Decades of Celtic/Rangers’ dominance suggest that, even after their incredible start, it’s going to be tough to keep this up over the course of the season. A good barometer will be their trip to Celtic Park on 7 December. Win and they can start to dream, but the reality is that (assuming the same points difference by that stage), a Celtic win slashes the lead to just four points, and then it becomes a case of how’s your bottle?
The hopeless footballing romantic wants us to believe that Hearts can do it, and taking 5/2 is the play. But we’re too long in the tooth to think that writing Celtic or Rangers off in November is bolder than calling a kilt a skirt at a caber-tossing event.
Prediction: Even at 4/9, Celtic to win the Scottish Premiership is the play.
Scottish Premiership Relegation Odds
| Relegated | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee | 5/4 | BetVictor |
| Livingston | 6/4 | bet365 |
| Kilmarnock | 8/1 | BetVictor |
| Falkirk | 16/1 | bet365 |
| St Mirren | 20/1 | Bet365 |
*Odds correct at 10:20 GMT on 11/11/2025. Odds subject to change.
As is often the case in Scotland, the relegation market is much more competitive. You could make arguments around each of the five teams (above) to drop down into the Championship this season, with just three points separating 8th and 12th.
We spoke about Hearts’ crazy run at the top, but that’s been matched by newly promoted Falkirk. Sixteen points from their opening 12 games (4W, 4D, 4L) has the Bairns in dreamland and with a great chance of staying up. They were 10/3 preseason to head straight back down, but their fine form has John McGlynn’s side out to 16/1 and playing well enough to stop up.
Any of Dundee, Livingston, Kilmarnock and St Mirren look fair cop for the drop. There’s just one win between the clubs in their last 20 outings combined. It seems like they’ll form their own mini-league as the season progresses, where games between them have top-flight status well and truly on the line.
The value play? Well, right now it looks like Livingston at 6/4 with bet365. No wins in 10, 23 goals conceded in 12 games, and it’s looking like the jump to the Premiership is proving a mighty one. They’re scoring goals, but look like rabbits in the headlights at the back, and it’s tough to see how or where they can string together a set of results to keep them up.
Prediction: Livingston to be relegated at 6/4 is the play.
