Shabana Mahmood is the 3/1 favourite (Ladbrokes) to become the next Deputy Prime Minister. This follows the news that Angela Rayner has left the party after underpaying on stamp duty and breaking the ministerial code by failing to talk to a tax specialist.
Other notable candidates to take the role include Health Secretary Wes Streeting (11/2), Home Secretary Yvette Cooper (10/1) and Tony Blair’s former political secretary, Pat McFadden (12/1).
How Angela Rayner’s Resignation Unfolded
On Friday, Angela Rayner resigned as Deputy Prime Minister and, ironically, Housing Secretary, after an independent ethics committee found that Rayner had underpaid by approximately £40,000 in stamp duty on a second home.
The home in question was a seaside flat in Hove, valued at around £800,000. It’s believed that Rayner had moved her current home in Ashton-under-Lyne into a trust for her disabled son and, based on legal advice, was informed that she only needed to pay the lower bracket of stamp duty on the Hove flat.
She later learned that this was incorrect.
The independent report, conducted by Sir Laurie Magnus, stated that she “acted in good faith and with integrity” throughout the inquiry. It proceeded to add that while they were satisfied that no intentional foul practice was at play, a lack of oversight from the former Deputy Prime Minister breached the ministerial code.
Public pressure and media scrutiny have been mounting over the last week, and on Friday, Rayner decided to resign. Prime Minister Keir Starmer released a statement expressing his sadness at her departure, praising her work as a Labour politician over the last decade.
The question now is, who is next?
Bookmakers have promptly reacted to the news, with odds on the next Deputy Prime Minister already live with several major bookies. A consequence of Rayner leaving will almost certainly mean a cabinet reshuffle, which could make the politics betting markets in the UK burst into life over the next few weeks.
Latest Next Deputy Prime Minister Betting Odds
Rayner’s seat on the benches may still be warm, but with her departure, the bookies have leapt into life. We’ve compared the latest odds from all the best betting sites to bring you the very latest from the market:
| Next Deputy Prime Minister | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Shabana Mahmood | 3/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Wes Streeting | 9/2 | William Hill |
| Yvette Cooper | 10/1 | Ladbrokes |
| John Healey | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Bridget Phillipson | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Pat McFadden | 12/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Lisa Nandy | 14/1 | William Hill |
| David Lammy | 16/1 | Ladbrokes |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Torsten Bell | 20/1 | William Hill |
*Odds correct as of 16:00 BST on 05/09/2025. Odds subject to change.
Who Will be the Next Deputy Prime Minister?
With Angela Rayner gone, the question that remains is, who will Keir Starmer choose to replace her? Here’s where the value lies in these early betting markets.
Best Value – Shabana Mahmood – 3/1 Ladbrokes
Shabana Mahmood is the current Justice Secretary, and for us, the value play for the next Deputy Prime Minister. She’s a disciplined Starmer ally and has widely been credited with tactical wins, most notably in Batley and Spen.
She’s low-key, which Starmer will need following this high-profile public fallout and would be able to hold her role as Justice Secretary as an add-on to Deputy PM, which means less of a reshuffle needed in the cabinet.
The key here is that the market is underestimating how PMs reward trusted campaigners, and at 3/1, she looks as well-equipped as Streeting, but without the fuss.
Biggest Mover – Pat McFadden – 12/1 Ladbrokes
Pat McFadden is the biggest market mover for the next Deputy PM, with his odds shortening from 14/1 to 8/1 with William Hill. A best price of 12/1 at Ladbrokes is still available, so get in quick as this price will continue to shorten.
He’s the current Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and has worked as Political Secretary for Tony Blair. Many outlets describe him as Starmer’s de facto No.2 in office, so it makes sense that he’s up for the role.
McFadden would be another easy pick for Starmer. He does a lot of the day-to-day in Whitehall and is seen as super-reliable by his peers. The downside is that he’s another low-public profile, so if Starmer opts for someone more voter-friendly, then this won’t be the play.
Money is coming though, and this cannot be ignored. Even if this is an outside shot, the market suggests it will continue to shorten, offering up a hedge betting opportunity, if nothing else.
Outsider/Hedge Option – Yvette Cooper – 10/1 Ladbrokes
Current Home Secretary Yvette Cooper is priced at 10/1 with Ladbrokes to take the reins and looks good value for an outside shot. She’s spent large parts of her political career working as Secretary to the Treasury and Work & Pensions Secretary, creating long-standing ties that stretch back to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Cooper would be an easy sell, adding stability in a bumpy news week for the Labour party. She could balance both the Deputy Prime Minister and Home Secretary positions, which, like McFadden, means less disruption in terms of movers and shakers in the cabinet.
This is a steady pick. At 10/1, she’s an outsider, but Starmer may look to keep things low-key, and if that’s the case, she’s great value at those odds.
