Long gone are the days when traditional betting types were the only ones available. Sure, betting on your favourite sport is great fun, but have you tried betting on politics yet? We’re delving into all that this newly popular market has to offer.
Most betting enthusiasts will know a thing or two about wagering on sports or casino games, but recent years have seen political betting climb up the ranks too.
Political betting is seen as a fun alternative for those who are looking for some unique and profitable betting opportunities. Politics inevitably affects us all – unless you have made it your mission to hide away from all forms of media, escaping political news is pretty much impossible. So, if you’re still going to read about and be heavily influenced by politics, why not make the most out of it and have some fun too?
Table of Contents
- Best Betting Sites We Recommend for Politics Betting in 2020
- Election Betting Odds & Tips for UK & Rest of the World Politics
- Different Types of Election Bets in Politics
- Biggest and Best Political Election Bets Ever Made
- Pointers for Betting on Politics & Elections
- ThePuntersPage Final Say & Predictions
Election Betting Odds & Tips for UK & Rest of the World Politics
Placing successful bets on politics requires far more than just luck. In order to understand political betting, there are several tips that can be taken into account. Read about some of the current betting odds and tips on securing a win:
British Politics Election Betting Odds
Betting on UK politics is always an exciting venture, due to the many ongoing events. One of the current top political events to bet on is that of the next labour leader. Once Jeremy Corbyn steps down in April, the re-election of a new leader will have to take place. Contestants include Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Lisa Nandy and Emily Thornberry.
Starmer, an MP for Holborn and St Pancras and Shadow Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, is currently the favoured option – although the current political feminist movement may leave its mark on this election, with many routing for a female leader within the party. Interestingly, the 57-year-old frontrunner was actually named after Labour founder Keir Hardie. The best odds for Starmer stand at 4/11 with BetVictor.
Rebecca Long-Bailey, MP for Salford and Eccles since 2015 and Labour’s shadow business secretary, is also a favourite for many. Long-Bailey certainly stands a good chance of winning the election, with values that strongly align with Mr Corbyn’s political path. In fact, shadow chancellor John McDonnell even said Long-Bailey “could be a brilliant leader”. Her current best odds stand at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.
Meanwhile, Lisa Nandy, whose best odds stand at 9/1 with BoyleSports, has been an MP for Wigan since 2010. When announcing her candidacy, Nandy said: “Without what were once our Labour heartlands, we will never win power in Westminster and help to build the country we know we can be.
“I have heard you loud and clear when you said to earn that trust means we need a leader who is proud to be from those communities, has skin in the game and is prepared to go out, listen and bring Labour home to you.”
A second current favourite event to bet on is that of the next leader of the Liberal Democrats. Ed Davey, Layla Moran and Daisy Cooper are currently within the top options.
Moran, MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, is regarded as a favourite – if not the favourite. One of the best traits working in her favour includes the fact that she did not serve in coalition with David Cameron’s Conservatives, unlike the last two leaders. Her best odds stand at 7/4 with William Hill.
Ed Davey, MP for Kingston and Surbiton and the party’s co-interim leader, is another strong candidate. He has been credited with having the most advanced vision for the Liberal Democrats, and figuring out the party’s purpose. In his last leadership campaign, a key topic of his included tackling increasing climate concerns. His best odds stand at 4/6 with Betfred.
Another contender, Daisy Cooper has only been an MP for St Albans for several weeks, but has defended her lack of parliamentary experience by backing her vision with the campaign-related work she has long excelled at, as well as her ambitious ideas. Currently, Cooper is seen as a politician with great potential and a promising future, although her chances of winning the upcoming contest seem limited. Her current best odds stand at 16/1 with Coral.
Christine Jardine, Wera Hobhouse, Alistair Carmichael, Tim Farron and Sarah Olney are also among the other options.
The third most renowned contest to bet on in British politics at the moment, is that of the next Conservative leader. The top contenders include Sajid David, Dominic Raab and Michael Gove.
Sajid David, MP for Bromsgrove since 2010 and Chancellor of the Exchequer since July 2019, currently boasts the majority’s backing for the upcoming contest. With the current best odds of 10/1 with Ladbrokes, David stands a good chance of winning. His academic background lies in Economics and Politics, with a career that had primarily kickstarted in banking. He has since taken on several prominent roles in the UK political sphere, including working as Communities Secretary and Home Secretary to PM Theresa May.
Dominic Raab has been an MP for Esher and Walton since 2010 and has served as First Secretary of State and Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs since July 2019. A past political responsibility includes serving as the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, following a promotion from PM May. His best odds are those of 16/1 with Betway.
One of the remaining most prominent contenders is Michael Gove, MP for Surrey Heath since 2005 and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster since July 2019. His career began when he worked as an author and journalist, but he has since served many political roles. One of his key responsibilities included serving as the co-convenor of Vote Leave in the UK’s referendum on EU membership. His best odds stand at 16/1 with bet365.
Other potential contenders for the contest include Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel, James Cleverly, and Amber Rudd – among many more.
Rest of the World Election Betting Odds
Other prominent political betting events happening outside of the United Kingdom include the run for the US Presidential Election 2020 Winner, with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden as some of the key contenders.
The current U.S. President, Donald Trump is one of the three republicans running for president in 2020. Trump is a clear favourite, however ongoing legal investigations may in fact hinder his career’s progression. His main legislative accomplishment as president has been a sweeping tax cut that has worked in favour of major corporations and investors. His political views have been controversial, to say the least, with recurring issues including his stance on immigration and trade deals. Currently, his best odds stand at
Bernie Sanders, Democrat and Senator from Vermont, is another popular choice due to his progressive proposals such as Medicare for All. Sanders was the runner-up int he 2016 Democratic primary. The best odds for Sanders stand at 5/1 with Skybet.
Meanwhile, Democrat and former Vice President Joe Biden has best odds of 11/2 with Unibet. His respect of the working-class has earned him a strong reputation, along with his plans to boost America’s global image.
Other key contenders for the presidential win include Michael Bloomberg, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
Aside from US Politics, another key political betting competition is that of the next EU Commission President. Manfred Weber, Margrethe Vestager, Michael Barnier and Frans Timmermans hold the highest chances, with best odds of 5/6, 6/1, 8/1, and 9/1 respectively.
Different Types of Election Bets in Politics
In order to understand the different types of bets that exist in politics, one should first take a look at the different ways to place a bet: Prediction markets and online sportsbooks.
Prediction markets provide questions to traders that are simply answered with a “yes” or “no”. Traders are able to purchase a share on each question, with prices that vary according to supply and demand. Prediction markets also provide an insight into political campaigns and candidates’ chances.
Meanwhile, online sportsbooks provide the most convenient option for players. Through online bookmakers, players can wager on almost anything – the options found nowadays are practically unending. A lot of the bets available in sports are available in politics too, however some of the main bets include a straight up bet, handicap bet, and proposition bets.
A straight up bet, also known as the most common, features the favoured option as one with lower odds. Meanwhile, a handicap bet consists on wagering according to the margin you think a candidate will win by. Prop bets, on the other hand, rely on the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event.
Biggest and Best Political Election Bets Ever Made
Betting on politics has the potential to earn you a substantial figure while still being enjoyable – and some lucky bettors have truly been able to experience that. There certainly have been some impressive political bets over recent years… Here are our three of our favourites:
One of our all-time favourite political betting stories is that of Sedgefield taxi driver George Elliott, who bet on Tony Blair becoming leader and Prime Minister following a lucky taxi ride in 1983. Following an eye-opening conversation with his passenger, Elliot was impressed by the young politician and proceeded to head to a local bookmaker to place a bet on him. Elliott was quoted odds of 500/1, and sure enough, the unlikely event followed through and won him an unbelievable £5,000 in 1997. The 14-year wait did not go to waste!
One of the largest bets in politics was that of 51-year-old Cornish hotelier John Mappin, who had high hopes on Donald Trump, enough to place over 30 bets amounting to £3,500at a variety of odds on him winning the Republican nomination and becoming President. Mappin claimed that he had never placed a bet before this one, yet was compelled to do so through a data analysis system simply three days after Trump entered the contest. Trump sure did not let Mappin down, who enjoyed a massive £110,767 victory! The fantastic figure wasn’t his only cash prize, however. Mappin told ITV news that following his win, Eric Trump called Mappin to thank him for his support, while inviting him to meet President Trump.
Mappin said: “I've been working with an information analyst system for about 20 years.
“The purpose of it is to predict outcomes. I was examining information out of America, specifically social media patterns. When Donald Trump's presidency bid was announced we really knew three hours later that he was going to win.”
Caption: Jeremy Corbyn / Alt text: Jeremy Corbyn gives speech
The lucky London gambler
A first-time political bettor from Kingston, London, placed a bet on the Scots, shortly after realising that they were unlikely to vote for independence in the 2014 referendum. The middle-aged businessman had carried out a lot of research before coming to this conclusion, which in turn saw him bet a whopping £900,000 with William Hill on a no vote. Despite odds that were not in his favour, the daring wager paid off, and saw him earn an extravagant £1,093,333.33.
He said: “Losing the money would have seriously hurt but I wouldn’t have lost my house. I would call it responsible gambling, a reasoned wager.”
Pointers for Betting on Politics & Elections
Don’t bet on your favoured candidate for the sake of it
This may seem like an obvious point to some, but a few punters fail to realise that betting on politics requires the same in-depth analysis and research that any other betting market would. Political betting is not about wagering on your preferred politicians, but finding a bet where the odds are higher than the probability. Analyse statistics, polls and reliable news sources before placing your bet. Moreover, make sure you pick elections you understand.
News sources are not always the most trustworthy. In order to back the data you find, carry out your own research by reading forums and remaining up to date with public opinion. Speaking to acquaintances and observing comment threads can give you a great indication of what’s on people’s minds.
Don’t believe everything you read
This point reinforces our last… always ensure your information sources are reliable through careful research. Certain polls and news sources can be misleading due to strongly favouring one candidate over another. The one-sided information made available can sometimes be very false and inaccurately represent public opinion, which is why every estimation you come across online should be taken with a grain of salt. Steer clear of biased news sites and political pages when seeking information to wager on – the media’s propaganda may indeed cost you a lot of money if you’re not careful!
Never underestimate the underdogs
Punters often like to favour major candidates as they believe it’s a less risky choice than placing a bet on a candidate with less of a reputation. Yet, placing bets on a minor candidate achieving a small feat and gaining seats in parliament may prove to be wiser than simply placing bets on the major candidate to win. Trust your instincts, the popular opinion isn’t always right!
ThePuntersPage Final Say & Predictions
For a market that was considered to be very minor some years ago, political betting has really increased in popularity. We believe it is set to grow exponentially and become a key sector for betting enthusiasts, so make sure you don’t miss out on all this market has to offer! With the current favourable odds, we’re betting on Keir Starmer for the role of the next Labour leader and Prime Minister in the UK, Ed Davey for the next Liberal Democrat Leader, and Sajid David for the next Conservative Leader. Meanwhile, our predictions are on Donald Trump for the next US Presidential Election Winner. Who will you be betting on?